latest Betfair odds

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sanders , Harris, Buttigieg, and Yang combined probably have not much more than a 0% chance of being the Democratic nominee. So that explains half of it.

[Xing]

Trolls.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren gaining again…

Up: Warren
Down: Sanders, Yang, Harris

Democrats
Warren 52.4
Biden 18.9
Buttigieg 6.8
Clinton 6.8
Sanders 5.0
Yang 4.2
Harris 3.7
Gabbard 1.4
Booker 1.1
O’Rourke 0.9

Republicans
Trump 78.3
Pence 7.8
Haley 5.0
Romney 4.0
Sasse 2.5
Rubio 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Immediate post-debate odds:

Up: Sanders, Buttigieg
Down: Warren, Biden, Clinton

Democrats
Warren 50.9
Biden 18.0
Buttigieg 8.1
Sanders 7.5
Clinton 5.8
Yang 4.2
Harris 3.8
Gabbard 1.4
Booker 1.1
Klobuchar 1.0

Republicans
Trump 80.0
Pence 7.8
Haley 5.3
Romney 4.5
Sasse 1.7

Winning Individual
Trump 42.5
Warren 27.4
Biden 10.5
Sanders 4.3
Buttigieg 4.2
Yang 2.8
Clinton 2.3
Pence 2.3
Haley 1.8
Harris 1.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 17.7
Biden 11.9

Republicans
Bush 28.4
Rubio 28.4
Trump 13.1
Carson 7.8
Fiorina 6.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 5.3
Kasich 3.7
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.2
Santorum 1.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 44.1
Bush 12.2
Rubio 11.4
Biden 9.1
Sanders 9.1
Trump 7.0
Bloomberg 3.3
Carson 3.1

[Mr. Morden]

And just now, Sanders is back up to 3rd place:

Democrats
Warren 51.3
Biden 17.7
Sanders 8.4
Buttigieg 8.1
Clinton 5.8
Yang 4.2
Harris 3.6
Gabbard 1.4
Booker 1.1
Klobuchar 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Well, Sanders’s stint in third place didn’t last very long, as Buttigieg has been gaining these last few days, and is now back in double digits.

Up: Buttigieg, Haley
Down: Warren, Biden, Trump

Democrats
Warren 49.2
Biden 16.8
Buttigieg 10.5
Sanders 7.5
Clinton 5.3
Yang 3.8
Harris 3.6
Gabbard 1.4
Klobuchar 1.4
M. Obama 1.0

Republicans
Trump 77.7
Haley 8.1
Pence 7.8
Romney 3.1
Ryan 1.9

Winning Individual
Trump 42.9
Warren 26.0
Biden 10.0
Buttigieg 5.3
Sanders 4.8
Clinton 2.5
Yang 2.4
Pence 2.2
Haley 1.9
Harris 1.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 14.1
Biden 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 31.0
Bush 27.3
Trump 12.8
Carson 8.8
Fiorina 6.8
Cruz 6.5
Christie 5.0
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 45.0
Rubio 11.6
Bush 10.9
Sanders 7.8
Biden 7.5
Trump 7.0
Carson 2.9
Cruz 2.4
Christie 2.3
Fiorina 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Warren’s been dropping these last few days, but today’s poll #s have taken her below 40…

Up: Biden, Sanders, Clinton, Romney
Down: Warren, Harris, Trump

Democrats
Warren 38.5
Biden 25.4
Sanders 10.9
Buttigieg 10.7
Clinton 6.5
Yang 3.4
Harris 2.1
M. Obama 1.8
Gabbard 1.6
Klobuchar 1.5

Republicans
Trump 76.5
Haley 8.1
Pence 7.2
Romney 4.8

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 84.7
Sanders 13.8
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 31.0
Bush 23.1
Trump 13.8
Carson 8.4
Cruz 6.4
Fiorina 5.3
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.1
Kasich 2.8
Romney 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Warren regains some of her lost ground…

Up: Warren, Pence
Down: Biden, Sanders, Romney

Democrats
Warren 44.8
Biden 20.1
Buttigieg 10.5
Sanders 8.8
Clinton 6.5
Yang 3.3
Harris 2.1
Gabbard 1.6
M. Obama 1.3
Klobuchar 1.2

Republicans
Trump 76.9
Pence 8.8
Haley 8.1
Romney 3.6
Rubio 1.7

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Rubio 31.4
Trump 17.4
Bush 16.8
Carson 8.4
Cruz 6.2
Fiorina 4.8
Christie 4.3
Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.2
Graham 1.1
Ryan 1.0
Paul 0.9

Eight years ago at this point:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3068805#msg3068805

GOP nomination

Romney 67.1
Perry 13.4
Cain 7.4
Gingrich 6.0
Huntsman 2.5
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 1.0
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Twelve years ago at this point:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1325022#msg1325022

Democrats
Clinton 69.9
Obama 12.5
Gore 8.4
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 43.4
Romney 26.0
Thompson 10.0
McCain 7.2
Paul 7.1
Huckabee 6.9
Rice 1.8
Gingrich 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Betfair doesn’t have a VP market yet, but competing online peer-to-peer futures trading site $markets does, though not much volume there yet.  Here are their top 6 Dem. VP nominee possibilities at the moment:

Harris 12.4
Castro 8.8
S. Brown 8.5
O’Rourke 7.3
Gabbard 6.8
Klobuchar 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders rebounding a bit, and might retake 3rd place from Buttigieg in the near future.  Also, Bloomberg’s now in the top 10 for the Dem. nomination.

Democrats
Warren 44.4
Biden 20.1
Buttigieg 10.5
Sanders 10.0
Clinton 7.0
Yang 3.3
Bloomberg 2.2
Gabbard 1.9
Harris 1.9
Klobuchar 1.4

Republicans
Trump 78.3
Pence 7.8
Haley 7.2
Romney 4.5
Rubio 1.7

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg makes big gains, while Warren declines…

Up: Buttigieg, Sanders
Down: Warren

Democrats
Warren 38.5
Biden 20.5
Buttigieg 15.4
Sanders 12.2
Clinton 6.4
Yang 3.4
Bloomberg 1.9
Gabbard 1.4
Harris 1.3
Klobuchar 1.3

Republicans
Trump 78.3
Pence 8.4
Haley 7.5
Romney 3.7
Rubio 1.4

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 38.0
Trump 17.4
Bush 11.1
Cruz 9.5
Carson 9.1
Christie 5.3
Huckabee 3.6
Fiorina 2.9
Kasich 2.4
Graham 1.1

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3074207#msg3074207

Romney 69.5
Perry 11.0
Cain 6.3
Gingrich 4.8
Paul 2.9
Huntsman 2.7
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1328829#msg1328829

Democrats
Clinton 71.3
Obama 12.8
Gore 6.6
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
Romney 28.5
Paul 8.7
Thompson 8.4
McCain 7.1
Huckabee 4.5
Rice 1.2
Gingrich 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg now up to 5th place for the Dem. nomination.

Up: Biden, Bloomberg, Trump
Down: Warren, Pence, Haley

Democrats
Warren 33.9
Biden 21.7
Buttigieg 15.4
Sanders 12.4
Bloomberg 7.0
Clinton 5.7
Yang 3.8
Klobuchar 1.7
Gabbard 1.4
Harris 1.4

Republicans
Trump 80.0
Pence 7.5
Haley 6.2
Romney 4.2
Rubio 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

One day after Bloomberg-mania exploded, Bloomberg's share price has dropped a little off of its high from yesterday.  Most of the other leading Dem. candidates have also dropped since yesterday, but Warren gains (though she's still down from where she was last week):

Democrats
Warren 34.8
Biden 19.6
Buttigieg 14.5
Sanders 10.9
Bloomberg 5.7
Clinton 5.3
Yang 3.4
Klobuchar 1.6
Gabbard 1.4
Harris 1.4
Booker 0.7
M. Obama 0.6

Republicans
Trump 80.0
Pence 9.5
Haley 5.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 11.4

Republicans
Rubio 38.8
Trump 19.3
Cruz 11.6
Bush 10.0
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Kasich 2.6
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Paul 0.9
Romney 0.7
Graham 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3080433#msg3080433

Romney 69.9
Perry 10.1
Gingrich 7.9
Cain 3.6
Huntsman 2.8
Paul 2.2
Palin 0.8
Bachmann 0.6
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

Democrats
Clinton 71.4
Obama 13.5
Gore 5.6
Edwards 5.2
Richardson 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 43.4
Romney 29.2
Paul 7.9
McCain 7.3
Huckabee 6.0
Thompson 6.0
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4

[BlueSwan]

Some of those numbers are just bonkers. Clinton still ahead of a number of actually viable candidates who ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING. Harris at 1.4 is laughably low. Sure the last couple of months have been horrible for her, but her surge earlier in the campaign shows that there is still some untapped potential here and she is that unusual candidate who is both highly electable (arguably more so than any other dem candidate) and someone who should be acceptable to all fractions of the party (except for the purists who only wants Sanders).

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

[BlueSwan]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

Interesting. Personally I think Harris, Booker and Castro are by far the most likely picks. I think Warren likely picks Booker or Castro. I think Biden likely picks Harris (despite the 1st debate) or Booker. I have no idea who Sanders would pick. I think Buttigieg would pick Booker or Harris. I have no idea how Buttigieg tops that list, as I don't see who amongst the top candidates would pick him. I guess Harris is the closest to a top candidate who might pick him. Definitely not Sanders or Warren and I don't see how Biden picks him over a racial minority candidate.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

Interesting. Personally I think Harris, Booker and Castro are by far the most likely picks. I think Warren likely picks Booker or Castro. I think Biden likely picks Harris (despite the 1st debate) or Booker. I have no idea who Sanders would pick. I think Buttigieg would pick Booker or Harris. I have no idea how Buttigieg tops that list, as I don't see who amongst the top candidates would pick him. I guess Harris is the closest to a top candidate who might pick him. Definitely not Sanders or Warren and I don't see how Biden picks him over a racial minority candidate.

Why wouldn't Warren pick mayor Pete?

[BlueSwan]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

Interesting. Personally I think Harris, Booker and Castro are by far the most likely picks. I think Warren likely picks Booker or Castro. I think Biden likely picks Harris (despite the 1st debate) or Booker. I have no idea who Sanders would pick. I think Buttigieg would pick Booker or Harris. I have no idea how Buttigieg tops that list, as I don't see who amongst the top candidates would pick him. I guess Harris is the closest to a top candidate who might pick him. Definitely not Sanders or Warren and I don't see how Biden picks him over a racial minority candidate.

Why wouldn't Warren pick mayor Pete?

Why would she, when she could have Booker, Harris or even Castro instead? All three are racial minorities and those are "safer" minorities than having a homosexual man on the ticket. And at least Harris and Booker are to the left of Buttigieg, but still plenty establishment enough to "balance" the ticket.

Essentially, I think Booker is a very very good pick for VP for a whole bunch of candidates. He's likable, he's energetic, he's a racial minority and he strikes me as someone who would be pretty easy to work with and not try to steal the thunder from the top of the ticket or whatever. If I was Warren I would pick Booker. If I was Biden I would pick Booker or Harris.

Sanders might actually pick Gabbard, right? That would be such a disaster...the Russians would win regardless of the outcome.

[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick isn’t exactly taking the betting markets by storm…

Up: Biden
Down: Warren, Bloomberg

Warren 32.9
Biden 22.6
Buttigieg 14.9
Sanders 11.6
Clinton 4.2
Bloomberg 3.8
Yang 3.7
Gabbard 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Harris 1.4
Booker 0.7
M. Obama 0.6
Patrick 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Patrick now up to 10th place:

Democrats
Warren 30.0
Biden 20.5
Buttigieg 16.3
Sanders 11.6
Clinton 6.2
Yang 3.7
Bloomberg 3.6
Klobuchar 2.1
Gabbard 1.6
Patrick 1.4
Harris 1.2
Booker 0.9
Holder 0.6

Republicans
Trump 81.8
Pence 7.0
Haley 5.3
Romney 3.8
Rubio 1.7

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at Harris being behind Patrick.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren now just below 30:

Democrats
Warren 29.6
Biden 20.5
Buttigieg 16.3
Sanders 13.1
Clinton 6.8
Yang 3.6
Bloomberg 3.3
Klobuchar 1.7
Gabbard 1.6
Harris 1.4
Patrick 1.1
Booker 0.8

Republicans
Trump 81.0
Pence 7.5
Haley 5.4
Romney 4.8

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
O’Malley 1.2

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 18.3
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.5
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Romney 1.8
Kasich 1.3
Huckabee 1.1
Paul 1.0

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3089337#msg3089337

Romney 68.6
Gingrich 14.7
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 3.5
Paul 3.1
Cain 2.9
Bachmann 1.2
Santorum 0.5
Palin 0.4
Johnson 0.3

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1341066#msg1341066

Democrats
Clinton 71.6
Obama 15.8
Edwards 5.0
Gore 4.8
Richardson 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 40.3
Romney 30.7
Huckabee 8.6
McCain 7.9
Paul 7.6
Thompson 6.0
Rice 1.8
Gingrich 0.3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg is gonna slowly creep up to 2nd, Bernie and Biden are old enough

[Mr. Morden]

The new Selzer poll has sparked a Butti-surge at the expense of Warren:

Warren 26.0
Biden 20.8
Buttigieg 19.6
Sanders 12.3
Clinton 6.4
Yang 3.6
Bloomberg 3.0
Klobuchar 1.9
Gabbard 1.6
Harris 1.6
Patrick 1.1
Booker 0.8
M. Obama 0.6

[Mr. Morden]

Last pre-debate update: The Butti-mania that erupted after the Selzer poll on Saturday has subsided a little, and Buttigieg is no longer threatening Biden’s 2nd place spot.  Instead, Biden is creeping up on Warren’s hold on 1st place.

Up: Biden
Down: Buttigieg

Democrats
Warren 25.4
Biden 23.6
Buttigieg 17.4
Sanders 13.1
Clinton 5.7
Yang 3.6
Bloomberg 3.0
Klobuchar 2.1
Patrick 1.9
Gabbard 1.4
Harris 1.2
Booker 0.7
M. Obama 0.6

Republicans
Trump 79.2
Pence 8.1
Haley 7.5
Romney 4.2