latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders is getting close to 20, has he hit that before?

Apparently, he's briefly hit 20 a couple of times, but only for a few hours.  Never sustained it for a day or more.

In fact, it looks like he briefly hit 20 yesterday, possibly at some point during the debate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders is getting close to 20, has he hit that before?

Briefly, but he's benefiting from a collapse in Biden. Clinton's back where she was back in August.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a flashback to where things stood back in May:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Biden 10.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.8

Republicans
Bush 39.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.2
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.4
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Ryan 1.9
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2

[Lyin' Steve]

When did Obama start surging? Holy crap he was only at 11% this time back in 2007. LOL at being tied with Al Gore. Hillary must have had a really great fall 2007.

I remember around November 2007 an article came out in Time that basically said "What happened to Obama?"  He was at about 15% to Clinton's 45% and his star had fallen.

Iowa really saved him.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Rubio now tied with Bush for the lead.

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 17.7
Biden 11.9

Republicans
Bush 28.4
Rubio 28.4
Trump 13.1
Carson 7.8
Fiorina 6.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 5.3
Kasich 3.7
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.2
Santorum 1.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 44.1
Bush 12.2
Rubio 11.4
Biden 9.1
Sanders 9.1
Trump 7.0
Bloomberg 3.3 (!)
Carson 3.1

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If you assume winning_individual/chance_of_nomination is the chance they would have in the GE given that they win the nomination, Trump looks like the most electable Pub according to the bettors, haha! Both Rubio and Jeb underwater, but Trump more likely than not to win. Biden of course is all but a lock. A thing of beauty. Not even Carson up 20 in swingstates has a real chance of winning if he gets the nomination.

[bobloblaw]

Bush still leading???
Betfair is run by fullfledged retards

[Lyin' Steve]

If you assume winning_individual/chance_of_nomination is the chance they would have in the GE given that they win the nomination, Trump looks like the most electable Pub according to the bettors, haha! Both Rubio and Jeb underwater, but Trump more likely than not to win. Biden of course is all but a lock. A thing of beauty. Not even Carson up 20 in swingstates has a real chance of winning if he gets the nomination.

They give Biden an 80+% chance in the GE.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio (barely) takes the lead for the GOP nomination.  Also, Cruz may soon be passing Fiorina.

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 15.4
Biden 11.6

Republicans
Rubio 28.4
Bush 28.0
Trump 14.5
Carson 7.8
Fiorina 5.7
Cruz 5.3
Christie 4.5
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 3.1
Santorum 1.2
Paul 1.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 46.7
Bush 11.6
Rubio 11.6
Sanders 8.8
Biden 8.4
Trump 7.2
Carson 2.9

[Lyin' Steve]

Trump 8.8
Biden 8.4
Trump 7.2

That's gotta be a good sign

[Mr. Morden]

Trump 8.8
Biden 8.4
Trump 7.2

That's gotta be a good sign

Ha, good catch.  The first one should actually be Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

The "winning individual" #s are fun to compare to people's 2009 predictions of who would be the 45th president:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=101968.0

In 2009, Rubio hadn't even been elected to statewide office yet.  And it's hard to imagine anyone back then predicting that Bernie Sanders would at some point be the markets' fourth place pick to win the 2016 presidential election, or that Donald Trump would be sixth.

[Lyin' Steve]

The "winning individual" #s are fun to compare to people's 2009 predictions of who would be the 45th president:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=101968.0

In 2009, Rubio hadn't even been elected to statewide office yet.  And it's hard to imagine anyone back then predicting that Bernie Sanders would at some point be the markets' fourth place pick to win the 2016 presidential election, or that Donald Trump would be sixth.

lol at the Martha Coakley talk in that thread.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz now in fifth place, ahead of Fiorina.  Meanwhile, the spike in Sanders's #s that took place just after the debate has more recently been going in reverse, and he's crashed down to below where he was before the debate.

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 13.1
Biden 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 28.8
Bush 26.0
Trump 14.5
Carson 8.1
Cruz 5.8
Fiorina 5.5
Christie 4.8
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 3.1
Santorum 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3059465#msg3059465

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1318311#msg1318311

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio breaks 30.

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 14.1
Biden 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 31.0
Bush 27.3
Trump 12.8
Carson 8.8
Fiorina 6.8
Cruz 6.5
Christie 5.0
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 45.0
Rubio 11.6
Bush 10.9
Sanders 7.8
Biden 7.5
Trump 7.0
Carson 2.9
Cruz 2.4
Christie 2.3
Fiorina 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 13.4
Biden 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 29.6
Bush 26.3
Trump 12.8
Carson 7.8
Cruz 5.7
Fiorina 5.7
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 3.3
Paul 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3060887#msg3060887

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1319591#msg1319591

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[Lyin' Steve]

Buy Cruz, sell Bush.  Those numbers are way off.

Was Edwards doing that badly in October 2007 that Al Gore had a better chance than him?  I thought up until January he still had a plausible path by winning Iowa and using that momentum to win South Carolina.  In the end he beat Hillary in Iowa anyway.

[eric82oslo]

Buy Cruz, sell Bush.  Those numbers are way off.

I think Christie is the most underrated, although I agree that Cruz is underrated as well. Rand Paul is also ever so slightly underrated I guess.

[Mr. Morden]

The Biden share price has gotten incredibly volatile, as people expect some kind of announcement soon.  Last trade was 23.1, but the trade before that was only 15.4.

Up: Biden, Trump, Carson
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Biden 23.1
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Rubio 29.6
Bush 24.8
Trump 14.5
Carson 8.8
Cruz 6.5
Fiorina 5.7
Christie 4.2
Huckabee 3.1
Kasich 3.1
Paul 1.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3063078#msg3063078

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1320167#msg1320167

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[Mr. Morden]

Post-Biden dropout…Clinton over 80 to win the nomination and over 50 to win the presidency.

Up: Clinton, Sanders, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush, Christie

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 14.9

Republicans
Rubio 30.0
Bush 23.6
Trump 15.8
Carson 8.4
Cruz 6.5
Fiorina 5.5
Huckabee 3.1
Christie 2.9
Kasich 2.9
Romney 1.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 50.8
Rubio 11.9
Bush 10.5
Sanders 8.1
Trump 7.8
Carson 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Back in the 2012 cycle, Romney first broke 80 on Intrade on the morning of Jan. 3rd, which was Iowa caucus day, though he would later drop below that # when Gingrich and Santorum rebounded.

In 2008, McCain hit 80 to win the nomination after he won the Florida primary on Jan. 29th, and Obama of course didn’t hit 80 to win the Democratic nomination until deep into primary season.

[eric82oslo]

So basically Democrats have about a 59% chance combined to win the election. Sounds about right to me.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton closing in on the 85 mark…

Up: Rubio, Christie
Down: Sanders, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 84.7
Sanders 13.8
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 31.0
Bush 23.1
Trump 13.8
Carson 8.4
Cruz 6.4
Fiorina 5.3
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.1
Kasich 2.8
Romney 1.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 50.8
Rubio 12.5
Bush 9.1
Sanders 8.4
Trump 7.2
Carson 4.8
Christie 2.6
Cruz 2.5

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting and a bit surprising that Carson, Christie, and Trump are the only Republicans they would favor in November.  Shockingly, Sanders is a favorite as well according to Betfair.

[The Other Castro]

Trump appears to be passing Bush for 2nd place on PredictIt.