latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton surges past 85, all the way up to 87.  Trump also surging and Bush crashing.

Up: Clinton, Trump, Carson
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 87.0
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Rubio 31.4
Bush 20.4
Trump 18.0
Carson 10.5
Cruz 6.5
Fiorina 5.3
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 2.8
Romney 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3068805#msg3068805

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1322786#msg1322786

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[Lyin' Steve]

Why is Trump surging today of all days?  The last 48 hours were bad for him.

[FLgirl]

Because of the news of Jeb's financial struggles?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is Trump surging today of all days?  The last 48 hours were bad for him.

Because national polls show him holding steady?

[Eraserhead]

I can't wait for Trump to surge ahead of the runt of the Bush Crime Family!

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton’s big surge subsides somewhat, as Sanders gains.  But Bush’s crash continues, as he drops below 20 for the nomination, and drops below Sanders in “winning individual”.

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 15.8

Republicans
Rubio 31.8
Bush 19.3
Trump 16.3
Carson 8.8
Cruz 5.8
Fiorina 5.3
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 2.8
Romney 1.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 51.3
Rubio 13.8
Sanders 9.1
Bush 8.1
Trump 7.0
Carson 4.2

A reminder of how much things have changed in the past month:

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 23.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 35.2
Rubio 21.7
Fiorina 9.5
Trump 9.5
Carson 6.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.5
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.2

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rubio surges but where the hell is he?
When McCain's campaign collapsed in 2007 he worked his ass off in New Hampshire to get his comeback. He didn't waste his time campaigning in irrelevent states like Ohio and Utah.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like the weekend game planning session with Papa and Mama has people worried about Bushie's future.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the weekend game planning session with Papa and Mama has people worried about Bushie's future.

Can you blame them?  He's been unemployed for almost nine years, and seems to be making no progress towards getting a job, regardless of how much help he gets from his family.

[Lurker]

Estimating Sanders' chances at becoming the Democratic nominee to be 16% seems awfully generous.

[IceSpear]

Rubio surges but where the hell is he?
When McCain's campaign collapsed in 2007 he worked his ass off in New Hampshire to get his comeback. He didn't waste his time campaigning in irrelevent states like Ohio and Utah.

It's not so much Rubio's accomplishments that are causing his surge, it's the fact that Jeb is floundering, Walker is gone, and the "Trump/Carson/Cruz have no chance" crew have nowhere else to jump ship to.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump passes Bush for second place.  Bush was tied with Rubio 12 days ago, and is now just barely more than half of Rubio’s price.

Up: Trump
Down: Sanders, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Rubio 31.4
Trump 17.4
Bush 16.8
Carson 8.4
Cruz 6.2
Fiorina 4.8
Christie 4.3
Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.2
Graham 1.1
Ryan 1.0
Paul 0.9

Winning Individual
Clinton 52.1
Rubio 13.4
Sanders 9.1
Bush 7.5
Trump 7.2
Carson 4.0
Cruz 2.1
Christie 1.9

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

[tpfkaw]

Is it possible to short on Betfair?

[Mr. Morden]

Is it possible to short on Betfair?

All of the prices I list in the thread are "Betfair Exchange" as opposed to the vanilla version of Betfair (where the prices are set by the bookies).  AFAIK, Betfair Exchange works the same as the old Intrade did, where each transaction is a bet between someone betting on an event happening and someone betting against that event happening.  So when the price is 86.2 for Clinton to win the nomination, that means that someone was betting on Clinton being the nominee at 86.2 while someone else was betting on Clinton *not* being the nominee at 13.8.

So yes, every transaction involves someone betting on the event and someone else shorting the same event.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

Huh?

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

It's a sad day for America when "betters" think that Socialist Sandinista Sanders has a better chance running this country than a competent leader such as Trump.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

Huh?

Winning individual odds / primary odds

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Bush rebounds enough to retake second place from Trump.  Will it last though?

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Rubio 32.9
Bush 18.3
Trump 17.7
Carson 10.0
Cruz 8.1
Fiorina 5.3
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3070455#msg3070455

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1325022#msg1325022

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Likely Voter]

PredictIt has a market on which GOPer will drop out next. 

George Pataki   32¢
Bobby Jindal   23¢
Rick Santorum   15¢
Chris Christie   15¢
Rand Paul   15¢
Lindsey Graham   14¢
Jeb Bush   13¢
Carly Fiorina   9¢
John Kasich   7¢
Mike Huckabee   6¢
Donald Trump   6¢
Ben Carson   5¢
Ted Cruz   2¢
Marco Rubio   2¢


Bush has surged in the last few days. He was at 4¢ on the 22nd (probably a bit of an over-reaction to the bad campaign news).

[Mr. Morden]

I could definitely imagine Bush dropping out before the end of the year, but being the *next* candidate to drop out of the race seems like quite a longshot.  I mean, even in the worst case, Bush is still going to tough it out at least a few more weeks, won't he?  And you've got all these 2nd/3rd tier candidates with no money.  Surely one of them will drop out before him, right?

[Likely Voter]

He has enough money to last through the end of the year. I think some of the media hype about campaign chaos, emergency meetings with family, staff cuts got some people thinking it could be another Walker situation and tried to get in early but his price to be 'next' has been dropping in last couple of days.  At the current prices on Predictit I would sell Bush for sure and I would also sell Graham, he has slow burn and good amount of money and just got 2% in a poll. I would buy Huckabee for sure, I think he is a sleeper for getting out next.

[Craigo]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

Huh?

Winning individual odds / primary odds

That only works if the market is efficient - which it clearly isn't, as the individual Democrats' chances of winning the WH add up to more than the Democratic Party's chances of winning the WH.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

Huh?

Winning individual odds / primary odds

That only works if the market is efficient - which it clearly isn't, as the individual Democrats' chances of winning the WH add up to more than the Democratic Party's chances of winning the WH.

Do they not allow short selling?

[Craigo]

Sanders has the highest implied odds in the general election, 64.5%.

Huh?

Winning individual odds / primary odds

That only works if the market is efficient - which it clearly isn't, as the individual Democrats' chances of winning the WH add up to more than the Democratic Party's chances of winning the WH.

Do they not allow short selling?

They might. Go make some money if they do (or not, from your state icon - Betfair is illegal for Americans).