absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Devout Centrist]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

[NOVA Green]

Non-Swing State Oregon Update through 11/3 (95k new voters ). Total Votes to date (47.8D-34.9R-17.3I) and Turnout (47.7D-48.0R-25.1I) for a current 41.0% total statewide turnout to date.

Republicans appear to be picking up on the enthusiasm gap statewide, as are Indies that tend to vote much more heavily Democratic than Republican in Oregon overall.

Overall County turnout levels are significantly lagging in Metro-Portland (38% RV turnout) vs "downstate" counties in the Mid-Valley (42%), Coastal Oregon (44%), Southern Oregon (45%).

Still Democratic turnout levels continue to exceed Republican turnout levels in (15) of the (22) counties on my list with flips since my last update in Linn, Lincoln, Douglas, and Curry).

However overall turnout by Party ID was a net gain for Republicans in all but (3) of the (22) counties on my list (Washington, Yamhill, and Curry).

Not a bad day for Democratic turnout in Oregon overall with the growth of Indie votes, but definitely a good day for Republicans in terms of not only taking an actual lead in turnout levels statewide, but actually taking a narrow turnout lead in some heavily Republican Counties in Southern and Western Oregon, as well as am EV lead by Party ID in some traditional "swing" counties in statewide elections.

[Ebsy]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Tender is just being obtuse.

[Lief 🗽]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Look at the 2014 numbers.  The Friday morning before election day, total turnout was 1.15 million.  Total turnout ended up at 2 million.  A whole lot of votes are about to come in this weekend and on Tuesday.  If 2014 is any indication, Democrats wait until the last minute in Colorado to drop off their ballots.

[Tender Branson]

Thx to Lief for giving a proper explanation (without insulting me) and the two others can kiss my ass.

[mark_twain]

Early voting data from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/index.html


Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout

[Dr. Arch]

Early voting data from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/index.html


Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout

Extra spoopy

[Iosif]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

To you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

Seriously on Nov 9th

To all you libtards gleefully celebrating Clinton's 'victory', Trump hasn't conceded yet! This isn't an accident, he knows it's not over! If it was he'd be out golfing or groping instead of having a meltdown on twitter!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Who else thinks that the Latino electorate will be around 14%+ this election? I sure do...Heck, if they come out like African Americans did last year = 16-17%. There's never going to be a better reason to vote against a republican!

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

57,000 voted as of 10 PM.
Now we wait for the tallies...
Dems could match 71K edge at end of 2012 early voting after this turnout tonight.

[Ebsy]

57k in Clark County as of 10 pm.

[gf20202]

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Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

[JerryArkansas]

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Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

Candidate Quality.  Heck got less votes than Romney, yet still won.  Berkeley was just horrible.

[Holmes]

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Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

Candidate Quality.  Heck got less votes than Romney, yet still won.  Berkeley was just horrible.

+ the electorate is more non-white than in 2012.

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

[Dr. Arch]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

I wonder whose GOTV efforts is making that happen

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

I wonder whose GOTV efforts is making that happen

lol I know

I'll be sorely disappointed if NC goes red even if Hillary wins. NC is more than just a matter of 15 EV to me. It's a matter of flushing Republicans in the state down the toilet. Democrats need to send a message this year.

[NOVA Green]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Look at the 2014 numbers.  The Friday morning before election day, total turnout was 1.15 million.  Total turnout ended up at 2 million.  A whole lot of votes are about to come in this weekend and on Tuesday.  If 2014 is any indication, Democrats wait until the last minute in Colorado to drop off their ballots.

Tender---

With all due respect it appears that you don't understand how VbM states work, including transitional VbM states like Colorado.

The vast majority of votes do come in over the weekend, and usually the greatest numbers are on ED itself, although granted Colorado is an imperfect version of Oregon when it comes to their voting systems and turnout levels.

[BoAtlantis]

"So far, 63% of the people with a >98% chance of voting have turned out. Our model doesn't seem like it has a great grasp on 20 v 50%"

[gf20202]

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

Edit:

Ralston confirm

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[QE]

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

Yup. Confirmed by Ralston:


Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.

[Ozymandias]

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

They updated the official numbers at NV SOS:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics

[Confused Democrat]

Ralston:

Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.

[Ozymandias]

Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.

Source: http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics


 

[JimSharp]

Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.




 

Interesting thing - if the "others" break by the 54-27 that CNN poll had them breaking the race is bascially tie right now... (Not saying they will, that's a weird number historically and demographically for NV, but it's an odd math quirk that that split will bring it back close.)