absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Stop making up information. Indy's in CO trend D, not R. Obama was down 2% in CO by the end of it and still won by a decent margin.

[dspNY]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Obama won the election day vote in NV in 2012 narrowly

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2666

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Add on top of that Hispanics are probably also coming out big time in Colorado! Republican Hispanics included!

[Ebsy]

The election day vote in Colorado (so much as it exists) is heavily Democratic.

[MasterJedi]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

You have 4 days left until you disappear for at least 2 years and try to pull the same thing again. You better live it up because your fuhrer is almost done.

[Confused Democrat]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

Wow, he pulled ahead in Colorado?!?!

Oh wait, Romney won EV in Colorado and still lost the state.

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

To you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

[Xing]

I love how Trumpsters are assuming that NC is good for Trump because the party ID numbers look slightly better for Republicans than they did in 2012, but then don't bother comparing CO's current numbers to 2012, and just say that Republicans ahead = good for Trump. Cherry picking is fun, wheeeeee!

[dspNY]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

Deep down in your heart you know he is wasting his time in NV and CO, and I think he knows it too

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Stop making up information. Indy's in CO trend D, not R. Obama was down 2% in CO by the end of it and still won by a decent margin.

I thought we were talking about NV where Trump needs R+7, no?

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Stop making up information. Indy's in CO trend D, not R. Obama was down 2% in CO by the end of it and still won by a decent margin.

I thought we were talking about NV where Trump needs R+7, no?

No, that's CO.

[Ebsy]

Seriously? is also counting his eggs before the hatch, since early voting is ongoing in Clark County and the final percentage for week 2 of the early vote is likely to shift with the inclusion of Friday's numbers.

[izixs]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

As for Nevada, first it doesn't make sense to compare the numbers the include Friday with those that don't. And what more, yes, the raw vote margin even without Friday's numbers there has a small raw vote gap between dems and reps (around half as you noted), its perhaps illustrative to compare still to the total vote from 2012 which had a 60k difference. So losing 10k from that isn't the end of the world (assuming all other things being equal, which they aren't). Finally, mail in ballots, though fewer in number, are looking more even between parties instead of a R win.

So... there's some serious gaps in seriously's analysis, or lack there of. Tis a reason I have him on ignore...

[BundouYMB]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

Such tolerant people on this website. 100% Grade A human beings, labeling someone a Nazi. Keep it classy.

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

As for Nevada, first it doesn't make sense to compare the numbers the include Friday with those that don't. And what more, yes, the raw vote margin even without Friday's numbers there has a small raw vote gap between dems and reps (around half as you noted), its perhaps illustrative to compare still to the total vote from 2012 which had a 60k difference. So losing 10k from that isn't the end of the world (assuming all other things being equal, which they aren't). Finally, mail in ballots, though fewer in number, are looking more even between parties instead of a R win.

So... there's some serious gaps in seriously's analysis, or lack there of. Tis a reason I have him on ignore...

With this kind of turnout, it's very possible they'll surpass the 70,000 vote firewall.

[MasterJedi]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

Such tolerant people on this website. 100% Grade A human beings, labeling someone a Nazi. Keep it classy.

You support the actual Nazi, you reap what you sow.

[Confused Democrat]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

Such tolerant people on this website. 100% Grade A human beings, labeling someone a Nazi. Keep it classy.

That statement is pretty tame when you compare it to the drivel that has come out of your candidates mouth.

[Dr. Arch]

Don't derail the thread guys, just ignore his comments that are not about the EV. Let's keep talking about updates on NV, FL, NC, and CO.

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

You do realize that this is the first exclusively vote by mail Presidential election for Colorado this cycle, right? So you can throw 2012 Early Vote numbers out the window. Your pattern is neither going to be the same nor predictable in an apples-to-apples sense.

[Speed of Sound]

Don't derail the thread guys, just ignore his comments that are not about the EV. Let's keep talking about updates on NV, FL, NC, and CO.

Youre right, Arch. Thanks. I'll delete my post and keep my eye on twitter.

[Mallow]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

The numbers you reference ("8%" vs. "3.5%") are 1. off--it's 7.19% to 3.49%, you can't round one up to 8% and the other to 3.5%, that makes no sense (EDIT: Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying... I don't understand what you mean by shaving a point off week 1 in 2012 when you're also mentioning "erasing" a lead from 2012 to 2016, which doesn't make sense to me)--2. they don't include Absentee/Mail-In ballots which, when added in, change the leads to 5.6% for 2012 (42.2% and 36.6%) and 3.3% for 2016 (40.1% and 36.8%)--3. they don't include today's results, so cannot be compared directly to 2012--and 4. and most importantly, a drop from 2012 by even the 4.5% you quote, let alone the more realistic 2.3% including all the data, wouldn't be enough to flip NV, which was won by Obama with a margin of 6.7% in 2012. So... I don't understand your point.

[Holmes]

Sorry, but Trump going to to campaign in Reno this weekend is a waste of time. There just aren't enough votes in Washoe to counter what's already cast in Clark and what's to come on election day.

[Tender Branson]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).