Will Hillary's ground-game totally outclass Trump's on election day?

[elcorazon]

The ground game will counteract Trump's electoral advantage. She needs to be ahead in polls to win on election day, given the map. If she has a slight edge, her GOTV ground game will allow her to win by enough to overcome the map and win the Presidency.

[Storebought]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

With CO, a 3.6% lead in the early vote totals (in a state that Clinton polled consistently quite well in) is indeed weak, but I am willing to change my mind about it.

About FL I don't share the optimism since a Clinton win in the state makes assumptions about the demographics of the electorate (less white, more Hispanic, and thus more favorable to the Democrats) that just aren't being borne out yet in the actual vote count. Yes, Clinton doesn't need FL, but it is the test laboratory for the validity of that argument. Even the FL early vote blog linked to in the the absentee vote thread concludes that the GOP is quite well placed in the state.

You are dead wrong about CO.

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And you are wrong about FL. The GOP margin in early vote is far lower in 2016 then it was in 2012 and Democrats usually dominate on election day with in person voters. In fact 27% of their EV are from those who are least likely to vote, which is a very good news.

CO is for Clinton, then, so she still has her EV majority. But between the ugly reversal in the most recent polls in FL and the knife's edge difference in actual vote tallies, I do not agree that FL is anything other than marginal for Democrats.

[VPH]

Will her ground game lead her to overperform polling and if so, by how much? That's the real question to ask.

[Maxwell]

Boy I hope so.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Does Trump even have a ground game? He's relying on free media and huge rallies to push his message and has since he began. It worked in the primaries, but I have no clue if it will work in the general.

I'm sure HRC's ground game will outclass Trumps, but it remains to be seen whether her supporters' lack of enthusiasm will overcome Trump. Outside of this forum, I don't think I've come across an enthusiastic HRC supporter - merely those who support her because she's the only viable candidate in the race.

[IceSpear]

Does Trump even have a ground game? He's relying on free media and huge rallies to push his message and has since he began. It worked in the primaries, but I have no clue if it will work in the general.

I'm sure HRC's ground game will outclass Trumps, but it remains to be seen whether her supporters' lack of enthusiasm will overcome Trump. Outside of this forum, I don't think I've come across an enthusiastic HRC supporter - merely those who support her because she's the only viable candidate in the race.

I guess you've never been to Jim Clyburn's congressional district then.

[Mehmentum]

It will do wonders in battleground states where she has ground game, but I'm not sure how much that would move the national PV.

[VPH]

Does Trump even have a ground game? He's relying on free media and huge rallies to push his message and has since he began. It worked in the primaries, but I have no clue if it will work in the general.

I'm sure HRC's ground game will outclass Trumps, but it remains to be seen whether her supporters' lack of enthusiasm will overcome Trump. Outside of this forum, I don't think I've come across an enthusiastic HRC supporter - merely those who support her because she's the only viable candidate in the race.

I guess you've never been to Jim Clyburn's congressional district then.

This is funny because the biggest Hillary fan I personally know is in that district.