Will Hillary's ground-game totally outclass Trump's on election day?

[Confused Democrat]

It's been a constant narrative throughout this election that the Clinton campaign has a much larger ground-game than the Trump campaign.

People in the Clinton camp seem to think that this will seal Trump's fate (to lose big league) on election night, and folks in the Trump camp seem to think that a modern campaign organization is a waste of money and prefer to keep their campaign organization "lean and mean."

I'm of the opinion that Trump is making a mistake by not investing in a strong and modern campaign organization, and I believe Hillary's ground-game/organization will swing every swing state on the map in her favor regardless of what the polls are currently saying.

I'm still of the opinion that the final map on election night is going to look like this:

Trump likes to tout that his campaign is "under budget and ahead of schedule," but I think he and his supporters are deluding themselves. How much do you think Hillary's ground game will help her on election night and what do you think the final map is going to look like because of it?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Yes, but it won't be enough to change the inevitable.

[Speed of Sound]

I mean, if Trump busing 15 people from a rally in NV yesterday to vote is what his ground game looks like while Clinton's team had their biggest volunteer weekend ever, I think it's clear that it will make a difference. His rally, by the way, yielding absolutely no change in early vote numbers in NV yesterday. Dems did just as well as usual.

[Cashew]

Ground game? He has none.

[Blackacre]

In 2012 polls didn't account for the ground game, did they? Obama's edge is probably how he got from +1 to +4, or a 3 point swing. If you double that because Trump's ground game is atrocious while Clinton's remains good, you can get a 6 point swing, or go from +5 to +11. Keeping the swing at Obama levels gets you +8, so between those two numbers is where I believe the election's going to end.

[Pyro]

Clinton's ground game may be offset by active voter suppression.

[Speed of Sound]

Clinton's ground game may be offset by active voter suppression.

Compared to '08, when whites desperately scrambled to keep the first black man out of office? I'd be surprised.

[mark_twain]

Yes, but it won't be enough to change the inevitable.

Exactly...Clinton will win either way.

[henster]

Rs still holding up in FL, NC despite pitiful Trump GOTV of course this is all state parties and the RNC.

[KingSweden]

Yes, but I don't think it's worth more than 1-1.5 points

[Xing]

Probably, but trying to predict how far off the polls will be is a fool's errand. No one knows for sure.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

White voters are up bigly, and Black votes and Millenials votes are down bigly (though Hispanics are up). I don't see the Clinton ground game in the early vote.

[Storebought]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

Yet I'm called delusional or a troll when I say she's finished.

[Speed of Sound]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

These are the words of someone who neither knows how to read polls nor has looked at/can understand any of the early vote numbers we already have.

[Yank2133]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The biggest gains for Dems so far might/seems to be among college-educated whites and hispanics. But they should be more thankfull to Trump's twitter rather than Hillary's ground-game

[Hammy]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

Yet I'm called delusional or a troll when I say she's finished.

Your posts are nothing but un-backed pessimism, often contrary to the polling.

[DrScholl]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

Voices in his head.

[Ljube]

Ground game is overrated.

[Yank2133]

Ground game is overrated.

You guys haven't learned anything the past two election cycles did you?

[Storebought]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

With CO, a 3.6% lead in the early vote totals (in a state that Clinton polled consistently quite well in) is indeed weak, but I am willing to change my mind about it.

About FL I don't share the optimism since a Clinton win in the state makes assumptions about the demographics of the electorate (less white, more Hispanic, and thus more favorable to the Democrats) that just aren't being borne out yet in the actual vote count. Yes, Clinton doesn't need FL, but it is the test laboratory for the validity of that argument. Even the FL early vote blog linked to in the the absentee vote thread concludes that the GOP is quite well placed in the state.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Not really. He doesn't need one. People will show up.

[Baki]

It has to.

[Yank2133]

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

With CO, a 3.6% lead in the early vote totals (in a state that Clinton polled consistently quite well in) is indeed weak, but I am willing to change my mind about it.

About FL I don't share the optimism since a Clinton win in the state makes assumptions about the demographics of the electorate (less white, more Hispanic, and thus more favorable to the Democrats) that just aren't being borne out yet in the actual vote count. Yes, Clinton doesn't need FL, but it is the test laboratory for the validity of that argument. Even the FL early vote blog linked to in the the absentee vote thread concludes that the GOP is quite well placed in the state.

You are dead wrong about CO.

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And you are wrong about FL. The GOP margin in early vote is far lower in 2016 then it was in 2012 and Democrats usually dominate on election day with in person voters. In fact 27% of their EV are from those who are least likely to vote, which is a very good news.