MO - Mason Dixon: Trump+5
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  MO - Mason Dixon: Trump+5
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Author Topic: MO - Mason Dixon: Trump+5  (Read 1632 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: October 27, 2016, 06:10:39 PM »
« edited: October 27, 2016, 06:15:16 PM by Ozymandias »

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

Trump - 47
Clinton - 42
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1
Undecided - 7

10/24-10/26, 625 LV, 4% MOE

SENATE: Blunt (R) - 47, Kander (D) - 46
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OneJ
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 06:12:22 PM »

No big surprise here. MO is no tossup this year.
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Seattle
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 06:13:11 PM »

Blunt leads Kander 47-46, 5 undecided, with 23$ million raised in total by both candidates!?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 06:16:31 PM »

No big surprise here. MO is no tossup this year.

Well, if we're going by RCP standards...
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2016, 06:20:06 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 06:22:54 PM by Fancy Bear »

#Tightening. Well not really but its good its this close this far in.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 06:23:25 PM »

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 06:27:29 PM »

Using Tender Branson math, this confirms Clinton's 9 point national lead. BEAUTIFUL!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2016, 06:28:00 PM »

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

Nate Cohn, Upshot, would disagree with you.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2016, 06:32:18 PM »

New Poll: Missouri President by Mason-Dixon on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2016, 06:41:56 PM »

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

Nate Cohn, Upshot, would disagree with you.

I wasn't saying they were accurate, just mentioning what the exit polls said. The gender differences are my main concern as the racial differences are probably negligible.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 06:51:04 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 06:58:47 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

Nate Cohn, Upshot, would disagree with you.

I wasn't saying they were accurate, just mentioning what the exit polls said. The gender differences are my main concern as the racial differences are probably negligible.

Yeah,  I don't buy a female majority of only 2. Even if you model a point or two extra for women, you get well into battleground territory.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2016, 07:04:43 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 07:19:48 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Lol, MO is not a battleground state. TX, AK, GA, AZ all flip before MO.

Ugh based on those numbers, lordy. If you can get to Trump +5 with fewer women in the sample... etc etc.  I don't expect Clinton to win MO.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2016, 07:14:06 PM »

Could topple with a perfectly timed oppo dump.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2016, 07:18:43 PM »

Missouri isn't flipping unless there's another tape. And even then...
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