MO - Mason Dixon: Trump+5

[The Other Castro]

No big surprise here. MO is no tossup this year.

Well, if we're going by RCP standards...

[The Other Castro]

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

[The Other Castro]

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

Nate Cohn, Upshot, would disagree with you.

I wasn't saying they were accurate, just mentioning what the exit polls said. The gender differences are my main concern as the racial differences are probably negligible.