MO - Mason Dixon: Trump+5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Demographics:
Party ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Race: 80% White, 15% Black, 4% Other
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male

From 2012 MO exit polls: 78% White, 16% Black. 55% Female, 45% Male.

Nate Cohn, Upshot, would disagree with you.

I wasn't saying they were accurate, just mentioning what the exit polls said. The gender differences are my main concern as the racial differences are probably negligible.

Yeah,  I don't buy a female majority of only 2. Even if you model a point or two extra for women, you get well into battleground territory.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, MO is not a battleground state. TX, AK, GA, AZ all flip before MO.

Ugh based on those numbers, lordy. If you can get to Trump +5 with fewer women in the sample... etc etc.  I don't expect Clinton to win MO.