What does your gut say about this election today?

[tinman64]

Electoral Vote:
Clinton 342
Trump 190
McMullin 6

Popular Vote:
Clinton 50%
Trump 44%
Others 6%

[MasterJedi]

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 300 EVs, (47.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 238 EVs, (48.4%)
Gary Johnson (L-NM) / William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EVs, (4%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 0 EVs, (1.1%)
Jill Stein (G-MA) / Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) - 0 EVs, (0.3%)

My gut says Trump will now win. I think MN, NH, & PA are a bit bold. and could easily go for Clinton.

But let me explain:

MN- Dissatisfied with Obamacare, Midwestern, progressive (They won't fall for Hillary), and White.
PA- Turnout will be high in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and Central PA, while Trump will win a few counties (Bucks, Lehigh, & Luzerne) in the East. Turnout will be lower in Philadelphia and among AAs overall. This should be enough for Trump to flip the state.
NH- White, Hillary's primary loss, and just my own intuition. I'll probably be wrong on this one though.

Utah will be close and I think Trump will narrowly win the state against McMullin & Clinton splitting the vote enough.

Aka you're in the cult and will disappear after the election.

[KingSweden]

My gut says a decisive Clinton win, likely in double digits. Dems pick up 7 Senate seats, with Rubio winning about +4 in FL. Dems pick up 25 or so in the House and flip several state legs.

My head says Clinton by 6-7, Dems +5 in Senate

[Hammy]

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 300 EVs, (47.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 238 EVs, (48.4%)
Gary Johnson (L-NM) / William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EVs, (4%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 0 EVs, (1.1%)
Jill Stein (G-MA) / Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) - 0 EVs, (0.3%)

My gut says Trump will now win. I think MN, NH, & PA are a bit bold. and could easily go for Clinton.

But let me explain:

MN- Dissatisfied with Obamacare, Midwestern, progressive (They won't fall for Hillary), and White.
PA- Turnout will be high in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and Central PA, while Trump will win a few counties (Bucks, Lehigh, & Luzerne) in the East. Turnout will be lower in Philadelphia and among AAs overall. This should be enough for Trump to flip the state.
NH- White, Hillary's primary loss, and just my own intuition. I'll probably be wrong on this one though.

Utah will be close and I think Trump will narrowly win the state against McMullin & Clinton splitting the vote enough.

If this map were to play out Clinton would not be winning the PV.

And my gut feeling for congress is a GOP hold on both houses--net gain of +3 Senate seats for the Dems with gerrymandering blocking the Dems from gaining the House until post-census.

[Torie]

That's it's not good for my health.

[Devout Centrist]

VA-GOV 2013 redux.

Are you just a contrarian or contradictory?

[RosettaStoned]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No. But cute.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton - 359 EV 51.5%
Trump - 179 EV 43.1%
Others - 5.4%

[Mehmentum]

My gut says that the floor will drop out for Republican turnout, this will be most noticeable in the West.  As soon as results start coming in from Indiana, it will become very clear that something has gone very wrong.

Clinton: 417 EVs, 54.0%
Trump:  115 EVs, 40.2%
Johnson: 4.5%
Stein: 0.7%
McMullin: 6 Evs, 0.5%

[Slander and/or Libel]

My gut says that the floor will drop out for Republican turnout, this will be most noticeable in the West.  As soon as results start coming in from Indiana, it will become very clear that something has gone very wrong.

Clinton: 417 EVs, 54.0%
Trump:  115 EVs, 40.2%
Johnson: 4.5%
Stein: 0.7%
McMullin: 6 Evs, 0.5%

I fully concede that I may be wrong, but my gut says it's going to be way less close than most polls and forecasts are indicating. Something like this hits it for me.

[tallguy23]

My gut says by 8pm on the West Coast the networks will be calling the election for Clinton. She'll win quite comfortably.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Give or take Georgia. Alaska could be quite close, as could Texas; I don't have anyone winning a majority in those three states.

Clinton 50.45% 359 EV
Trump 42.25% 173 EV
Johnson 5.15% 0 EV
McMullin 0.78% 6 EV
Stein 0.72%
Others 0.65%

Third party total: 7.3%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Give or take Georgia. Alaska could be quite close, as could Texas; I don't have anyone winning a majority in those three states.

Clinton 50.45% 359 EV
Trump 42.25% 173 EV
Johnson 5.15% 0 EV
McMullin 0.78% 6 EV
Stein 0.72%
Others 0.65%

Third party total: 7.3%

Barring any major new developments, I think you'll be very close to the final result.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this should be a topic right now regarding law and order....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249937.0

[Sbane]

Clinton/Kaine 49.2% 307 EV
Trump/Pence 46.8% 225 EV
McMullin/Finn 1.5% 6 EV

I think the chances of something like this are pretty good. Trump last minute does much better across the east but still does as bad as the polls are suggesting out west. Clinton holds on to PA, WI, MN and MI by a few points. She also wins Florida by a couple points as Hispanic turnout is high and swings hard against Trump.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton/Kaine 49.2% 307 EV
Trump/Pence 46.8% 225 EV
McMullin/Finn 1.5% 6 EV

This, give or take FL/NC.

Ah, so you are a contrarian.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ah, so you are a contrarian.

Um, what? I literally have no idea what the final map will look like. Right now, I'm predicting a closer than expected election (but still a pretty clear Clinton victory), but it could also be a Clinton landslide.

I'm only teasing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My prediction is the same as it has been for the last month.

2012 +NC/AZ/NE-02 I see no reason to think otherwise.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

A BIG LEAGUE BEAUTIFUL LANDSLIDE for HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON. The map looks something like bballrox's (give or take McMullin winning Utah). The Portillo moment of the night is Rubio losing in Florida.

[mencken]

Gut says we are in for 2014 redux. Trump wins Iowa and Ohio comfortably, Florida and North Carolina by very narrow margins, Clinton narrowly wins Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire. Wisconsin goes down to the wire.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The current state of the polling tells me this:

As far as Utah goes, the pundits' guesses are as good as mine.  OH and AZ will be the closest, followed by NC and FL.  There will be little drama in the freiwal, almost all of which will be Clinton majorities now that Johnson is fading.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 300 EVs, (47.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 238 EVs, (48.4%)
Gary Johnson (L-NM) / William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EVs, (4%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 0 EVs, (1.1%)
Jill Stein (G-MA) / Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) - 0 EVs, (0.3%)

My gut says Trump will now win. I think MN, NH, & PA are a bit bold. and could easily go for Clinton.

But let me explain:

MN- Dissatisfied with Obamacare, Midwestern, progressive (They won't fall for Hillary), and White.
PA- Turnout will be high in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and Central PA, while Trump will win a few counties (Bucks, Lehigh, & Luzerne) in the East. Turnout will be lower in Philadelphia and among AAs overall. This should be enough for Trump to flip the state.
NH- White, Hillary's primary loss, and just my own intuition. I'll probably be wrong on this one though.

Utah will be close and I think Trump will narrowly win the state against McMullin & Clinton splitting the vote enough.

Going back to full retard, I see.  I was foolish for expecting better.

[Sbane]

This is my gut feeling right now. The west remains as current polling indicates while the east shifts a few points towards Trump. This means NC becomes a pure tossup and VA isn't a blowout. PA, MI and WI are all close but stay with Clinton by at least a couple points. Ohio and Iowa are Trump wins by a few points. Florida by a couple points for Clinton.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is my gut feeling right now. The west remains as current polling indicates while the east shifts a few points towards Trump. This means NC becomes a pure tossup and VA isn't a blowout. PA, MI and WI are all close but stay with Clinton by at least a couple points. Ohio and Iowa are Trump wins by a few points. Florida by a couple points for Clinton.

I don't see a reason for such pessimism