What does your gut say about this election today?
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  What does your gut say about this election today? 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: What does your gut say about this election today?  (Read 3190 times)
User157088589849
BlondeArtisit
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« on: October 26, 2016, 11:45:36 AM »


Just think Clintons going to under-perform and Trump will over-perform. Think there will be more trump voters than we think.
Can't see Arizona going Democrat. Florida just think Trump might do enough.

I think we were all surprised in 2012 how strong Obama was in florida and despite polls in NC Obama did get 48% of the vote when most had him down by more. But I think Clinton will under-perform.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 11:51:27 AM »
Obama 2012 + NC + AZ + UT (McMullin)

GA, IA, and OH are the states I'm most uncertain about.
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Shadows
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 11:53:03 AM »
Same Forecast

Trump - Romney 2012 + FL + OH + IW & ME02 will run Clinton very close losing marginally. (This is considering no other screw ups between now n election)
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 11:54:41 AM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 26, 2016, 11:51:27 AM
Obama 2012 + NC + AZ + UT (McMullin)

GA, IA, and OH are the states I'm most uncertain about.

Same here..She could get to 375 with GA, IA, OH but something like 359-173-6 with GA narrowly staying red
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TC 25
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 11:58:26 AM »
Trump rallies.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 12:00:18 PM »
Heartbreak when Wisconsin is called Wednesday morning:
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 12:01:22 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 12:09:57 PM by HookiePook »

Indeed.  A strong ground game and party support will do that for a candidate.  Astute, sir.

Go look at my prediction.  Has not and will not change other than flipping MO back in Sept.  I was wrong about that one over the summer.

EDIT: Oh nevermind, it didn't save and is still showing my troll prediction;  here's the real one.



Clinton 52% and 359 EVs
Trump 43% and 179 EVs
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2016, 12:15:40 PM »
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2016, 12:21:05 PM »


PV: Clinton 48% Trump 47%
EC: Trump 309 Clinton 229
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ag
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 12:22:14 PM »
My gut says it is far too close. For me it is still a tossup.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 12:24:41 PM »
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RFayette
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2016, 12:25:19 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 26, 2016, 11:51:27 AM
Obama 2012 + NC + AZ + UT (McMullin)

GA ME-02, IA, and OH are the states I'm most uncertain about.

This.
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Hammy
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2016, 12:31:32 PM »
Trump flips OH+IA+FL while Clinton flips NC.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 12:33:04 PM »
Gut?

Trump flips Ohio and Iowa, Clinton flips North Carolina and possibly Arizona.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2016, 12:33:35 PM »
Roughly the first poster's map, with UT more of a swing-state.

CO and VA are not made for Trump, Hillary will win there.

FL and NC will be close, but barely won by Trump.

GA and AZ won't be that close in the end.
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Frodo
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2016, 12:56:47 PM »
What my gut tells me?  Hillary Clinton ultimately wins all the Obama 2012 states plus North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, as well as winning 54% of the popular vote.

I don't think any of the third parties will do any better this year than they did in 2012, not with Gary Johnson's poll numbers continuing to sink. 

As for Congress, Democrats carry both the House and the Senate. 

Hopefully Hillary gets some stuff done on Obamacare, immigration and infrastructure before the GOP strikes back in 2018. 
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2016, 01:01:35 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on October 26, 2016, 12:31:32 PM
Trump flips OH+IA+FL while Clinton flips NC.
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2016, 01:02:22 PM »
Trump wins.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2016, 01:05:52 PM »

You may have indigestion.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2016, 01:18:51 PM »
The best words to describe how I feel about the election at this moment would be "cautiously confident."

I'm almost certain Clinton is going to win, but I'm unsure of how close it's going to be. If I were to draw up an electoral map right now, it would look like this:


Based on the polls and early vote returns I'm pretty confident that Clinton is going to carry both NC and FL. I'm growing less confident of Clinton winning in OH and IA.

AZ and UT are the real wild cards in this race right now though.

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Cashew
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2016, 01:20:02 PM »
It has been foreseen..... Trump will do something stupid!
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2016, 01:30:22 PM »
Clinton will win but by a much smaller margin than what people are expecting. It will be closer to 2004 than 2008. Hillary wins the PV by 2-3 points and gets around 300 electoral votes.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 01:35:32 PM »
My head says Clinton wins with 359 or 375 EV, depending on GA.

My gut's main feeling is "please let this be over".  But it agrees with the above assessment.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2016, 01:37:47 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on October 26, 2016, 01:30:22 PM
Clinton will win but by a much smaller margin than what people are expecting. It will be closer to 2004 than 2008. Hillary wins the PV by 2-3 points and gets around 300 electoral votes.

add this to my feelings...
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2016, 01:39:20 PM »
I think it will be closer than we realize. I can't see Clinton improving on Obama's numbers given how unlikeable she is compared to Obama.

I also think there are more Trump voters than want to admit it.
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