India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

ABP exit polls seems to be the most friendly to the incumbent parties in all states

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis exit poll for Goa



BJP    18-22    35%
INC     9-13    32%
AAP     0-2       8%
MAG    3-6      11%
Others 1-3     14%

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis exit poll for Punjab



INC      62-71    36%
AAP      42-51    34%
SAD-BJP  4-7     17%
Others    0-2      13%

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis exit poll for Manipur



INC    30-36
BJP     16-22
NPF      3-5
Others  3-6

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis exit poll for UP (big win for BJP)



BJP+    251-279    36%
INC-SP    88-112   30%
BSP        28-42      22%
Others     6-15       12%

If we add this to the NDTV running average we get a new "NDTV" poll of polls for UP of

BJP            195
SP-INC       129
BSP              69
Others           9

[jaichind]

News 24-Chanakya exit polls for UP (mega landslide for UP) - of course Chanakya has a mega house affect

BJP           285
SP-INC       88
BSP           27
Others        3

[jaichind]

Updated NDTV poll of polls



SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

If we remove Chanakya  then we have

SAD-BJP    11
INC           54
AAP            51
Others        1

So no real difference

[jaichind]

List of all exit polls for Uttarakhand (70)   

                        ABP-CSDS  News 24-Chanakya  India TV-C Voter  India News-MRC India Today- Axis
BJP                        34-42                      53              29-35            38                                46-53
Congress               23-29                      15               29-35            30                               12-21
Others                      3-9                         2               6                    2                                  2-6

Gramener Exit Poll has it at



BJP      38
INC     26
Others  6

Average would then be

BJP             42
INC             24
Others          4

Without Chanakya it would be

BJP             39
INC             26
Others          5

[jaichind]

List of exit polls for UP (403)   

                ABP-CSDS   Chanakya   Times Now  India News-MRC India TV-C Voters  India Today-Axis
BJP             164-176   285         190-210                 185                 155-167        251-279
BSP               60-72       27           57-74                    90                     81-93           28-42
SP-INC        156-169    88            110-130                120                 135-147         88-112
Others            2-6          3                  8                        8                      8-20             6-15

Gramener also came out with



BJP          193
SP-INC     133
BSP            67
Others       10



Average is

BJP          208
SP-INC     123
BSP            62
Others       10

If you remove Chanakya the average is

BJP          195
SP-INC     130
BSP            68
Others       10

Somewhat more pro-BJP than my UP exit poll prediction

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80

[jaichind]

Summery of Punjab exit polls



Gramener also came out with

SAD-BJP      7
INC           53
AAP           57
Others        0

Average is

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

If you remove Chanakya the average is still

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

[jaichind]

Now, lets apply my algorithm on converting exit poll results to real results.

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.

UP

Non-Chanakya exit poll average is

BJP+        195
SP-INC     130
BSP            68
Others       10

All things equal BJP outperformed pre-election polls when compared to exit polls.  For Times Now-VMR and VDPA BJP exit poll results slight under-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls but for ABP and Axis BJP outperformed their equivalent pre-elections polls.  A good compromise of my algorithm would be to take the average of the most pro-BJP Non-Chanakya exit poll and average it with the Non-Chanakya exit poll average which gives us

BJP+        228
SP-INC     114
BSP            51
Others       10

And since this is a defeat of an incumbent party we should add some seats to BJP+ which gives us

BJP+        233
SP-INC     110
BSP            50
Others       10


Uttarakhand

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

BJP             39
INC             26
Others          5

The performance of exit polls versus pre-election polls is mixed.   For ABP and  VDPA BJP exit poll results slight under-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls while for Axis BJP slightly over-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls so we can call it a wash so we should just use the exit polls average.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent party  we should add a few seats to BJP to give us a projection of

BJP             42
INC             23
Others          5


Punjab

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

Here it is really a INC vs AAP battle.  For VDPA and CSDS AAP outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls while for C-Voter Axis INC outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls so its is a wash.  The incumbent parties clearly has lost so some seats will be shifted from SAD-BJP and gives us  a projection of INC and AAP neck-to-neck

SAD-BJP      8
INC           55
AAP           53
Others        1


Goa

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

BJP      18
INC     14
AAP      3
Others  5
 
For CVoter BJP outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls while Axis BJP under-performed  its equivalent pre-election polls so again we have to call it a wash.  But since BJP falling below majority is a defeat of the incumbent party we have to shift a seat from BJP to INC to get to a hung assembly projection with BJP and INC neck-to-neck

BJP      17
INC     15
AAP      3
Others  5


Manipur

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10

And since there are no pre-election polls we have  to go with this average which gives us INC and BJP neck-to-neck although I will move a seat from INC to BJP since the incumbent party is losing its majority

INC           25
BJP           25
Others      10

So if these projections are accurate we will have hung assemblies in Punjab, Goa and Manipur.

In UP it is quite cloudy.  It is clear BJP+ has the edge but if the exit polls vs pre-election polls does not give a clear signal if the trend is moving toward BJP.  The word from the ground seems to indicate it is so most likely the projection of BJP+ winning a solid majority is accurate.  

In  Uttarakhand it will be a solid BJP win.  INC will keep it sort of close and avoid a wipeout which looked like where it was headed in mid 2016.

[jaichind]

If BJP wins UP and Uttarakhand as it looks like they will and gets the upper hand in Goa and Manipur then that might trigger massive realignments throughout India in response for 2019 LS elections.  In UP there might be a SP-BSP-INC-RLD mega alliance to take on BJP.  The Bihar Grand Alliance of RJD-JD(U)-INC will be here to stay.  In Maharashtra INC-NCP alliance will be formed with de facto tactical support by SHS in certain circumstances.   In Odisha where the BJP is making advances and pushing INC out of the way as the main challenger to BJD an alliance of ancient rivals of BJD and INC to take on BJP is likely.  In Karnataka INC-JD(S) alliance will most likely form to beat back the BJP 2018 assembly elections.  In WB it will be AITC-INC alliance that will take on BJP with the support of AAP.  Outside Punjab INC and AAP will most likely come to an understanding.  In 2019 it will be everyone to gang up against BJP. 

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll for UP which has

BJP 164-176 SEATS
SP-INC -156-169 SEATS
BSP 60-72 SEATS

Actually has results broken out by the 7 phases

Phase 1 results (15 districts-73 seats):
BJP  (33-39 SEATS)
SP (20-26 SEATS)
BSP (12-16 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2)

Phase 2 results(11 districts-67 seats)
BJP (15-21 SEATS)
SP (37- 43 SEATS)
BSP (7-11 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)
 
Phase 3 results(12 districts-69 seats)
BJP (27-33 SEATS)
SP (25-31 SEATS)
BSP (9-13 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 4 results(12 districts-53 seats)
BJP (27-33 SEATS)
SP (16-22 SEATS)
BSP (2-6 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 5 results(11 districts-52 seats)
BJP (14-20 SEATS)
SP (21-27 SEATS)
BSP (8-12 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 6 results(7 districts-49 seats)
BJP (18-24 SEATS)
SP (14-20 SEATS)
BSP (8-12 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 7 results(7 districts-40 seats)
BJP (15-21 SEATS)
SP (9-15 SEATS)
BSP (6-8 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

[jaichind]

Sometimes winning is losing.

When SAD-BJP won an unprecedented re-election in 2012 Punjab that merely set them up for double anti-incumbency for 2017 where they have been reduced to a distant third with a seat count in single digits.  If AAP can consolidate its roots in Sikh areas SAD could see itself displaced as the alternative to INC in Sikh areas by AAP.

This is similar to when INC won an unprecedented third election in a row in 2008 Delhi  merely set itself up for a triple anti-incumbency in 2013 where it was reduced to 8 seats and a distant third to BJP and AAP.   And in 2015 INC was pushed to zero seats and Delhi has become a bipolar state dominated by AAP and BJP.

[jaichind]

Counting to start soon.  I will be watching the NDTV which has better coverage but I will use ABP for seat count reporting since it usually has the fastest count.  I do not like ABP party breakout.  I think in UP they should have RLD+, in Uttarakhand they should have BSP, in Goa they should have MAG+, and in Manipur they should have NPF. 


UP (0/403 counted)
SP-INC
BJP+
BSP
Others

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.

[jaichind]

First leads in, all in UP

UP (3/403 counted)
SP-INC    1
BJP+       1
BSP         1
Others

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

First leads in, all in UP

UP (8/403 counted)
SP-INC    2
BJP+       2
BSP         3
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

UP (13/403 counted)
SP-INC    4
BJP+       4
BSP         4
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

UP (26/403 counted)
SP-INC    9
BJP+      10
BSP         6
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[Boston Bread]

Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.

So is not too early to say BJP is underperforming in UP? Seems like they're not on track for a majority.

[jaichind]

UP (48/403 counted)
SP-INC   14
BJP+      20
BSP       12
Others     2

Punjab(8/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   1
INC         6
AAP         1
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.

So is not too early to say BJP is underperforming in UP? Seems like they're not on track for a majority.

Yes, so far it is not looking great for BJP+ to win majority although they should be largest bloc.

[jaichind]

Understand these are all leads and mostly postal

UP (61/403 counted)
SP-INC   20
BJP+      25
BSP       16
Others     2

Punjab(14/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   2
INC        10
AAP         2
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others

[jaichind]

BJP surge in UP at the expense of BSP

UP (64/403 counted)
SP-INC   20
BJP+      31
BSP       10
Others     3

Punjab(18/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   2
INC        14
AAP         2
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others