India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

UP 1993 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP           401              165               33.18%

BJP rebel                          2                  0.45%

INC+       400                22                14.38%

INC rebel                         0                   0.36%

SP+         401              177                30.21%   (includes BSP)

SP rebel                           2                  0.90%
BSP rebel                         0                  0.34%

SJP          289                  1                  0.53%

JD+         360                27                12.46%

JD rebel                           1                  0.10%

CPI+        49                   4                  1.08%  (includes CPM, has tactical alliance with JD+)

The BJP government fell in 1993 after it was dismissed by the INC government at the center for the riots which led to the destruction of the Ayodhya masque.  In the meantime Mulayam Singh Yadav split from SJP forming SP which left SJP as a tiny force in UP.  Proto-RLD led by Ajit Singh split from JD and merged into INC.  In 1991 the 5 way battle led to the following pecking order  BJP, JD, INC, SJP, BSP.  The risk of extinction was heavy on SP and BSP who decided to form an OBC-Dalit alliance.  This bloc did very well and won the most seats, beating back BJP, despite winning less votes than BJP in what is now UP.  Now it is JD and INC that are at risk of extinction.  

[jaichind]

There was a LS election in 1996 before the UP assembly elections with the result being

UP 1996 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          80               50                34.50%   (includes SAP)

INC            80                5                   8.05%

INC rebel                        1                  0.67%
AIIC(T)      71                 0                  1.79%   (AIIC(T) was an INC splinter)

SP+          80               18                26.89%    (includes JD, CPM CPI)

SP rebel                         0                  0.42%                    

BSP          80                 6                20.98%

AD            42                 0                 0.51%   (AD is a BSP splinter)



The a few months went by before the UP assembly elections with results being:

UP 1996 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          403             161              32.63%  (includes SAP)

BJP rebel                           1                0.45%

SP+           402            132               29.46%  (includes JD, BKKP (prooto-RLD),
                                                                        INC splinter AIIC(T), CPM, CPI)

SP rebel                           3                 0.68%
JD rebel                           1                 0.27%
BKKP rebel                       1                 0.28%
SJP             77                 1                 0.61%

BSP+        403            100                28.36%  (includes INC)

INC rebel                        1                  0.43%
BSP rebel                        1                  0.27%

AD           150                 0                 0.80%  (AD is BSP splinter)

The SP-BSP government collapsed after a couple of years due to personality clashed between SP's Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP's Mayawati.  A BSP-BJP government was formed but also then fell apart with 1996 elections being called.  In the meantime BKKP which is proto-RLD split out from INC while the AIIC(T) split from INC as well taking with it a good chunk of INC upper caste vote as well as a good part of its Uttarakhand base.   Fearing extinction, just liked SP and BSP did after 1991, INC joined up with BSP and JD joined up with SP.  CPI-CPM also joined up with SP.  The result was a fairly even three way split of votes and seats.
  

[jaichind]

After 1996 elections there was a deadlock.  Eventually a BSP-BJP government was formed which fell apart almost right away.  The BJP lured significant number of BSP and INC defectors to join BJP or to form pro-BJP splinters like INC splinter ABLTC and a barely stable majority as formed.  The political price the BJP had to pay to secure these defections formed the basis of the decline of the BJP which coupled with its inability to resolve its Upper Caste vs OBC factional disputes finally led to setback for the BJP in UP starting in 1999.

The lesson of these elections in the 1990s was that while the BJP could win 30%+ vote share in UP, in assembly elections the rarely translated into a majority of seats or even the largest party even as such vote shares were able to do well for the BJP in the LS elections. 

1996 UP assembly elections might be the best model for the current election with a 3 way battle and BJP seeming to have the upper hand in terms of vote share.  That high BJP+ vote share did translate into BJP being the largest party but nowhere near majority.

[jaichind]

The media narrative last couple of weeks has shifted from a SP-INC victory to advantage BJP.  This is based on ground reports that SP-INC does not seem to be gaining that much beyond its Muslim-Yadav core, SP and INC are not effective in tranfering votes to each other, and that in many seats INC are fielding weak candidates which the BJP can take advantage.  Also the view is that BJP-AD plus SBSP has 43.7% of the vote in 2014 LS election and even a swing of around 8% would still put BJP-AD-SBSP above 35%.

Business standard did come out with a narrative which looks at it the way I looked at it a few weeks ago. Namely the 18 UP by-elections after 2014 indicates that BJP's vote loss could be well above 8%





Now, SP's real strength is significantly worse than these numbers would infer since the ruling party tends to do better in assembly by-elections in India for pork barrel politics reasons.  But still, with BSP not running and the Dalit open to BJP poaching the BJP lost 11% from its 2014 levels.  Also a look at UP assembly and LS elections since the 1990s indicates that BJP tends to lose around 2% of its LS vote in an assembly election in UP anyway even if the LS and assembly election are held on the same day or a few months apart.  Plus, it is totally possible that BJP+ could beat SP-INC in terms of vote share but lose the seat count depending on how the BSP vote is structured.

[jaichind]

Last phase of UP done along with the second phase of Manipur.  Turnout in 7th phase of UP was 60.03% while back in 2012 it was 57.92% for the same districts.  This higher turnout seems to have benefited BJP where non-Yadav OBC seems to be gravitating toward BJP+ while it is more negative for BSP whose high Dalit turnout is diluted by higher turnout for Non-Yadav OBCs.

Exit polls will come out tomorrow since there is one seat in UP which will vote tomorrow due to death of the SP candidate.

[jaichind]

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80

[jaichind]

My algorithm on converting exit poll results to real results.

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.

[jaichind]

Most political pundits seem to converge toward the following narrative

1) BJP+ will win UP but fall short of majority
2) SP-INC alliance prevented BJP+ majority
3) SP-INC alliance could have done better if INC got around 60 instead of 103 seats as many INC candidates were seen as weak and not able to pull in the SP vote bloc giving a free walk to BJP+

Indian equity markets pretty much priced in a BJP+ plurality if not majority in UP.  A BJP setback could lead to a very large drop in Indian equity markets. 

[jaichind]

It seems neither BJP nor SP are that confident of victory.  Rajnath Singh, a key BJP leader and former CM of UP indicated that if it was not for the SP-INC alliance BJP would have won 300+ seats versus just a simple majority.  Akhilesh Yadav stated that if it was not for Modi the UP BJP would have faced a total wipeout in the UP elections versus just a simple SP-INC victory.  Both sides are claiming victory but putting in subtle conditions on why they might not do as well as their boasts. 

[jaichind]

Turnout overall in UP is 60.9% while in 2012 UP assembly elections was 59.15%.  In 2014 LS elections turnout was 58.4%.  The trend last decade or so was for turnout to rise.  I suspect turnout in 2017 is about the same as 2012 as part of the reasons for the turnout increase is better pruning of voter rolls.  Overall higher turnout should help BJP (since Upper Caste and OBCs tend to vote at lower rates than Dalits) and hurt BSP.

[jaichind]

India Today panel of experts predict UP election results

A slight majority has BJP ahead but without majority.  It would be funny if the Astrologer/Numerologist/Tarot card reader ends up closest to the mark.


Manisha Priyam (Political analyst)
BJP                        170-180
SP-Cong                100-110
BSP                        90-100
RLD                         20-30

Ajit Jha (Editor, research, India Today)
BJP                          170
SP-Cong                  130
BSP                           90
RLD                            7

Javed Ansari (Executive editor, India Today)
BJP                          160
SP-Cong              140-150
BSP                      90-105
RLD                       12-15

Sunita Aron (Senior journalist)
BJP                      160-180
SP-Cong              130-150
BSP                      90-100

Uday Sinha (Political analyst)
BJP                    90-110
SP-Cong           195-210
BSP                 105-115
RLD                    8-15

Sharat Pradhan (Senior journalist)
BJP                 170-180
SP-Cong         150-160
BSP                  70-80
RLD                   5-10

Anupam Kapil (Astrologer)
BJP                   160
SP-Cong           185
BSP                   53
RLD                    5

Veo Pratap Vaidik (Senior journalist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           190
BSP                   60
RLD                    6

Rishi Dwivedi (Numerologist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           140
BSP                  120
RLD                     7

Shella Bajaj (tarot card reader)
BJP                   150
SP-Cong           190
BSP                 65-69
RLD                   5-10
 


They also show the various bookie numbers which are totally crazy and out of sync with each other.  They range from BJP being first or third and BSP being first to third.  SP-INC seems to be either first or second.

Delhi

BJP               160-170
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP                 70-75
 

Agra

BJP                 75-80
SP-Cong        155-160
BSP               125-130


Kolkata

BJP                 90-95
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP               155-160
 

Lucknow

BJP                 80-85
SP-Cong        170-175
BSP               120-125

Indore

BJP                180-185
SP-Cong        130-135
BSP                 68-70



The average of all these bookie numbers are

BJP                117-123
SP-INC          147-152
BSP               108-112

BSP numbers seem very high.  My guess is that it seems most people are betting for a low seat count for BSP so the bookies has to raise its break-even target for BSP to hedge themselves.

[jaichind]

Exit polls coming out soon.  BJP claims 200+ seats while SP claims SP-INC to win 180-190.  BSP is silent.

[jaichind]

Oxus Investments, which did a very good job of predicting 2016 assembly election results came out with



Which has BJP ahead across the board although SAD-BJP totally crushed in Punjab
 

[jaichind]

India TV-CVoter  Manipur exit poll

BJP     35%   28
INC    32%   20
Others         12

Goa



BJP      36%   18
INC     32%    15
AAP      13%    2
Others             6

[jaichind]

NewsX UP exit poll




BJP+      185    33%
SP-INC   120    28%
BSP          90    25%
Others       8     14%

[jaichind]

Newsx Goa exit poll



BJP      15    31%
INC     10     26%
AAP      7     20%
MAG+  2       6%
Others  6     17%

[jaichind]

NewsX Punjab exit polls



SAD-BJP      7   20%
INC           55   33%
AAP           55   37%
Others        0    10%

[jaichind]

Times Now, UP-VMR Poll exit polls
 
Punjab’s 117 seats:
Congress: 62-71
AAP: 42-51
BJP: Sad: 4-7
Others: 0-2

UP's 403 seats




BJP: 190-210   33%
SP: 110-130    27% (not sure is this SP or SP-INC)
BSP: 57-74      26%
Others: 8         14%

[jaichind]

VDPAssociates exit polls UP, BJP majority



BJP+          208
SP-INC        96
BSP             85
Others         14

Vote shares

[jaichind]

NewsX Uttarakhand exit polls, narrow win for BJP



BJP       38   40%
INC      30    34%
Others   2     26%

[jaichind]

CVoter Goa




BJP    18   35.8%
INC    15   31.9%
AAP     2    12.8%
Others 5    19.5%

[jaichind]

News24 Chanakya (very heavy BJP house effect pollster) exit poll for Uttarakhand with massive BJP landslide





BJP    57   43%
INC   15   34%

 

[jaichind]

CVoter Manipur



BJP    28    34.8%
INC    20   32.7%
Others 12  32.5%

[jaichind]

BJP's own UP's "exit poll" has



BJP+     254
SP-INC  114
BSP         35

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls for Manipur so far



BJP     28
INC     20
Others 12