Portugal's politics and elections

[Tender Branson]

Overall turnout will probably fall bellow 50% when the overseas votes are counted. Yikes.

Yes.

5.2 million votes out of 10.81 registered.

48% turnout.

Anyway, the results are mostly what the polls showed and unlike the 2 big parties, similar to my prediction. The close race did not happen.

[Mike88]

What is the story behind the centre right EPP affiliated party in Portugal being called the Social Democratic Party?

After the 1974 revolution, giving liberal/conservative names to a party was considered political suicide. Therefore, parties on the center to center-right side had to be original. PSD' first name was PPD, People's Democratic Party, and in 1976 they added Social Democratic Party, becoming PPD/PSD. Although the PSD shifted to the right after 1976, the party's name remain unchanged as an homage to party's historic leader, Francisco Sá Carneiro, after his death in a tragic, and suspicious, plane crash in 1980.

[Mike88]

Overall turnout will probably fall bellow 50% when the overseas votes are counted. Yikes.

Yes.

5.2 million votes out of 10.81 registered.

48% turnout.

Anyway, the results are mostly what the polls showed and unlike the 2 big parties, similar to my prediction. The close race did not happen.

Yes, polling was spot on, the only polling company that failed was Eurosondagem. The election results also showed something curious: in the two main cities in Portugal, the PS performed very badly. PS lost Porto city to the PSD, Rui Rio was mayor of Porto for 11 years, so that was a factor, and in Lisbon, where Costa was also mayor, the PS lost vote share and got less votes than the right combined. The Portuguese Ohio, Braga district, was also quite close: PS 36.4% PSD 34.1%, and both PS and PSD won 8 seats.

[Former President tack50]

So Chega got in and Portugal has left the select club of countries with no far right parties?

RIP FF 

Oh well, at least it's 1.3% and not like 10%

[parochial boy]

Speaking of which, their best results seem to be in what looks like outer suburbs rather than Lisbon itself?

I'm guessing places like Loures are somewhat downmarket satellite towns?

[crals]

Speaking of which, their best results seem to be in what looks like outer suburbs rather than Lisbon itself?

I'm guessing places like Loures are somewhat downmarket satellite towns?

Not only that, but Loures is Ventura's homeland

[VPH]

So it does look like PS gains were concentrated in the Northern coastal area, while it stagnated more in the South and inland. That's interesting because losses for the two left parties were also concentrated in the South (which makes sense since that's where they win most of their votes in the first place). So it seems that the Left as a whole might be stable or even down in the South but significantly up in the North.

And this adds up with global trends. The South is more rural, poorer, and older. Chega's strongest areas in this election also happened to be longtime left-wing strongholds in the Alentejo.

[VPH]

According to data found on https://eyedata-lusa.socialdatalab.pt/ and elaborated in this article:
https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1334425/cds-pp-mais-forte-nos-concelhos-com-menos-divorcios CDS-PP did best in the parts of Portugal where divorce rates are lowest. Fascinating little demographic tool!

[Zanas]

CDU losing all representation in the Algarve: ouch !

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

At some point, would it be best if CDS was just merged or brought into a permanent satellite position with PSD?

Also, how liberal is the new Liberal party that just entered parliament?

[VPH]

At some point, would it be best if CDS was just merged or brought into a permanent satellite position with PSD?

CDS and PSD have enough of a different history to justify their existence as separate parties. Their positioning relatively speaking differs, with CDS-PP being more socially conservative. Rui Rio is known to be quite moderate as PSD leader, which would make a merger more challenging for the time being. PSD did badly but not badly enough for Rio to leave. Also, the 2015 election alliance under PAF vanished the moment PS formed a government, suggesting that modern differences in direction existed even before Rio.
That said, I think Santana Lopes should entertain a merger between Aliança and CDS-PP. It wouldn't make a huge impact but it's definitely in both their best interests.

Also, how liberal is the new Liberal party that just entered parliament?

I'd call them libertarian. Their platform emphasizes lower taxes, more privatization (including public broadcasting), less centralization (like regional minimum wages instead of a national one), labor market deregulation, more school choice, and personal freedom in general.

[Farmlands]

Rio criticised SIC's result projection last night, but his party still ended up in the range they had predicted for him, just in the upper range. I know it's business as usual for him, but it creates distrust in our fairly accurate media.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rio criticised SIC's result projection last night, but his party still ended up in the range they had predicted for him, just in the upper range. I know it's business as usual for him, but it creates distrust in our fairly accurate media.

It's really ridiculous how this thing has been blown out of proportion. PS underperformed slightly and PSD overperformed slightly, big deal. The polls were basically right and PS still won handily. This isn't anything like UK Labour's comeback from the dead in 2017.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rio criticised SIC's result projection last night, but his party still ended up in the range they had predicted for him, just in the upper range. I know it's business as usual for him, but it creates distrust in our fairly accurate media.

Cope harder.

[Mike88]

Rio criticised SIC's result projection last night, but his party still ended up in the range they had predicted for him, just in the upper range. I know it's business as usual for him, but it creates distrust in our fairly accurate media.

It's really ridiculous how this thing has been blown out of proportion. PS underperformed slightly and PSD overperformed slightly, big deal. The polls were basically right and PS still won handily. This isn't anything like UK Labour's comeback from the dead in 2017.

Rio is like this. And like it or not, he's a bit popular because of this kind of stuff, as he is seen as the politician who says it as it is and doesn't care about political correctness and so on. But, to be fair, the most accurate exit polls were from RTP and CMTV. SIC and TVI had the PSD at the top of the gaps and PS at the very low of the gap.

The polls were right, yes, but you could say that there was PSD comeback from the dead, a bit similar to Labour in 2017. In early September, polls were giving the PSD numbers near 20%, or 20%, and with a gap of 20%, or more, from PS. During the campaign that gap shrunk to bellow 10%, which isn't that bad. At the end the PSD could still win 3 more seats from overseas voting, and rise to 80 seats, although the most probable is a 2-2 tie between PS and PSD in the overseas vote counting.

[windjammer]

Likeliest scenario?

[Mike88]

Likeliest scenario?

No one knows. Negotiations are due to start after Wednesday. PCP seems to be refusing any new deal with the PS, the election results demand that, in their opinion, and they will meet in a party meeting tomorrow. BE is willing to negotiate with the PS, but pundits predict tense negotiations as BE wants more spending, and PS will not allow it. It will be interesting to see who caves in.

The other likeliest scenario is a PS minority, with occasional support from the left and the right.

[Mike88]

Exit poll data:

GfK/Metris exit poll for SIC:

Age.

18-24 years old:

30% PSD
25% PS
13% BE
  9% PAN
  4% CDS
  3% CDU
12% Others/Invalid

65+ years old:

51% PS
28% PSD
  6% CDU
  4% BE
  3% CDS
  1% PAN
  5% Others/Invalid

Education.

College degree:

31% PS
30% PSD
12% BE
  6% CDS
  5% CDU
  3% PAN
  7% Others/Invalid

No High school degree:

52% PS
23% PSD
  7% CDU
  7% BE
  3% CDS
  1% PAN
  6% Others/Invalid

From here.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Interesting. So actually very similar amounts of support for PSD+CDS in the age extremes, but younger people are more split on the left, especially with BE and PAN.

However education has a big difference (26 vs 36% PSD+CDS). Why is that?

[Walmart_shopper]

Likeliest scenario?

No one knows. Negotiations are due to start after Wednesday. PCP seems to be refusing any new deal with the PS, the election results demand that, in their opinion, and they will meet in a party meeting tomorrow. BE is willing to negotiate with the PS, but pundits predict tense negotiations as BE wants more spending, and PS will not allow it. It will be interesting to see who caves in.

The other likeliest scenario is a PS minority, with occasional support from the left and the right.

There is also the apparent Iberian tradition of holding elections again and again and again and again just to see what hsppens.

[Velasco]

Likeliest scenario?

No one knows. Negotiations are due to start after Wednesday. PCP seems to be refusing any new deal with the PS, the election results demand that, in their opinion, and they will meet in a party meeting tomorrow. BE is willing to negotiate with the PS, but pundits predict tense negotiations as BE wants more spending, and PS will not allow it. It will be interesting to see who caves in.

The other likeliest scenario is a PS minority, with occasional support from the left and the right.

There is also the apparent Iberian tradition of holding elections again and again and again and again just to see what happens.

There are differences between the Iberian countries. Portuguese politicians have more common sense than their Spanish counterparts, as well Portugal is culturally more homogeneous and politically less complicated. Leaving aside his bad temper, Costa is better than Sánchez. The same rules for political elites.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Catalonia issue has polarised Spain to such an extent I don't think you can compare the Portuguese situation really - all relevant political entities fron left to right are united on the nature of the Portuguese state, which makes alliances a lot easier. The BE - PS deliberations are more the standard brinkmanship you get in most parliamentary countries (e.g. the Australian Greens will always support Labor, but need to justify their existence to their cadre so they will make a big show about "hmm maybe this time we will walk away if you dick us around").

It's also relevant that this coalition will be a renewal of an existing agreement with changed terms rather than the aborted PSOE-Podemos talks, which also makes it a bit more likely you'll see some sort of agreement.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likeliest scenario?

No one knows. Negotiations are due to start after Wednesday. PCP seems to be refusing any new deal with the PS, the election results demand that, in their opinion, and they will meet in a party meeting tomorrow. BE is willing to negotiate with the PS, but pundits predict tense negotiations as BE wants more spending, and PS will not allow it. It will be interesting to see who caves in.

The other likeliest scenario is a PS minority, with occasional support from the left and the right.

There is also the apparent Iberian tradition of holding elections again and again and again and again just to see what happens.

There are differences between the Iberian countries. Portuguese politicians have more common sense than their Spanish counterparts, as well Portugal is culturally more homogeneous and politically less complicated. Leaving aside his bad temper, Costa is better than Sánchez. The same rules for political elites.

Yes, I agree. It was just a joke. Portugal is better than that.

[Mike88]

Likeliest scenario?

No one knows. Negotiations are due to start after Wednesday. PCP seems to be refusing any new deal with the PS, the election results demand that, in their opinion, and they will meet in a party meeting tomorrow. BE is willing to negotiate with the PS, but pundits predict tense negotiations as BE wants more spending, and PS will not allow it. It will be interesting to see who caves in.

The other likeliest scenario is a PS minority, with occasional support from the left and the right.

There is also the apparent Iberian tradition of holding elections again and again and again and again just to see what happens.

There are differences between the Iberian countries. Portuguese politicians have more common sense than their Spanish counterparts, as well Portugal is culturally more homogeneous and politically less complicated. Leaving aside his bad temper, Costa is better than Sánchez. The same rules for political elites.

Yes, I agree. It was just a joke. Portugal is better than that.

The electoral law also makes it harder for a 2nd election in a short period of time, as it forbides the dissolution of Parliament six months after being sworn in. And the President of the Republic always has an influence.

[Mike88]

The President is meeting parties today:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is meeting all 10 parties represented in Parliament, today, in order to nominate Costa as Prime Minister. During the meeting, only BE said they are willing to negotiate with PS, while PCP and Livre refused any deal with Costa, until now. Chega will not cooperate with Costa and IL asked Marcelo not to nominate Costa.

And in the PSD, tensions are growing by the day:

Although the 28% and 79/80 MPs the party won weren't the worst result ever, and were above expectations if you look at polls 3 weeks ago, tensions are growing with many accusing Rio of being a loser and of painting a defeat as a victory. Today, Cavaco Silva, former PM (1985-95) and President (2006-16), wrote an op-ed in which he threw Rio under the bus. Luís Montenegro, who challenged Rio in January, is expected to announce his candidacy for the PSD leadership in the next few days.

The PSD leadership elections are expected to be held in December 2019, or January 2020.