Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Do PAN want ministers or would they just support tje government in return for some environmental/animal welfare policies?

So far, PAN has said they don't want any jobs in the government, and they say they will make possible negotiations with the PS quite difficult. We'll see.

But the day was marked by a very, very tense moment between Costa and an elderly voter in Lisbon:
https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1180157733531721728

António Costa snaps with a voter during a Lisbon campaign event because of the Pedrógão Grande fire.

The elderly men was criticizing Costa for being on holiday during the wildfires in 2017, which is a lie, but Costa reaction was ludicrous. He almost hit the man and called him a big revolting liar and then accused the PSD and CDS of planting him there to upset him.

[Mike88]

Last polling before election day:

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share % and seat projection:

36.5% PS (-0.9), 102 seats
26.8% PSD (+1.6), 72
10.7% BE (-0.3), 25
  6.6% CDU (-0.2), 14
  4.9% CDS (-0.2), 9
  3.6% PAN (+0.2), 6
  1.3% CH (-0.2), 1
  1.3% Livre (-0.3), 1
  1.1% IL (-0.1), 0
  7.0% Others/Invalid (+0.4), 0

Poll conducted between 26 September and 2 October 2019. Polled 2,171 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

Pitagórica tracking poll - 4 October

37.2% PS (-0.1)
27.8% PSD (-1.0)
  9.2% BE (nc)
  6.6% CDU (nc)
  4.8% PAN (+0.4)
  4.6% CDS (0.7)
  1.8% CH (+0.3)
  1.1% Alliance (-0.4)
  0.9% Livre (nc)
  0.9% IL (nc)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 30 September and 3 October 2019. Polled 600 voters on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

The António Costa "incident" is escalating:

PS is accusing the elderly voter to be a CDS member and former local parish member from CDS. The PS is also saying they will sue the voter for defamation. CDS says that indeed the voter was a member of CDS but that he's no longer one and is saying the PS is becoming desperate.

[Mike88]

With all of the polls done, here's how they compare with the pre-election polls going far as 2002:
https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1180075799606640640

Now, some flashbacks Since 2002, election results have not been much different from the latest polls, whose fieldwork ends 4-7 days earlier. It would signal PSD in 2002, PS and CDS in 2005, PS in 2011 and BE in 2015 as the largest deviations from the average. (4)

Penúltima semana - Penultimate week
Última semana - Last week
Intervalo - Gap
Média - Average

[Mike88]

The campaign is over. Election reports and news are forbidden during Saturday.
Last campaign events by the major parties:

PS - Socialist Party - rally in Lisbon city
https://twitter.com/antoniocostaps/status/1180187055541964800

PSD - Social Democratic Party - rally in Lisbon city
https://twitter.com/psddistritallx/status/1180226992945414144

BE - Left Bloc - rally in Setúbal city
https://twitter.com/EsquerdaNet/status/1180248866148347906

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition - rally in Porto city
https://twitter.com/CDUPCPPEV/status/1180174786602950658

Saturday is a national holiday as it is the 109th anniversary of the implantation of the Republic, and it will be the day of the state funeral of Freitas do Amaral in Jerónimos Monastery in Lisbon.

[crals]

I just hope Chega stays out of the parliament. As a satirical article pointed out it's basically an internet comment box given life.

[parochial boy]

What’s the geography of BE’s vote usually? I would have thought Porto/Lisbon, but looking at 2015 results it seems they did best in Setubal and Faro?

[Mike88]

I just hope Chega stays out of the parliament. As a satirical article pointed out it's basically an internet comment box given life.

It's really a big question, how the minor parties will poll. CH and Livre seem the strongest of the minor parties until now. CH could win votes from disappointed CDS voters which could help them win a seat, we'll see. I myself don't want them to win a seat mostly because Ventura isn't a serious person towards politics, just look at him in CMTV.

Santana Lopes downfall is also another big surprise.

What’s the geography of BE’s vote usually? I would have thought Porto/Lisbon, but looking at 2015 results it seems they did best in Setubal and Faro?

Urban and suburban voters. BE is very strong in the big districts, Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Setúbal, Aveiro, Faro, Coimbra and Leiria. Normally the place where BE has a very a strong presence is Faro district, Algarve. This may be because of the job structure of that district. Because it's very tourist area, job contracts are very precarious and last very little time, not to mention wages, and as BE defends harder policies against these kind of job practices, it has a lot of support, mainly from young and middle age voters.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections: Overseas voting could reach 100,000 voters, a record high.

Until now 97,244 ballots from overseas have reached the Electoral Commission. This is a number 3 times higher than in 2015, where just 28,000 sent a ballot. The ballots need to delivered until October 6, in order to be counted on October 16. The final number could reach 100,000 and could beat the record of overseas ballots from 1980, 108,000 ballots.

Overall, in the 2019 general elections, 147,882 ballots have been cast, counting the overseas ballots and early voting data.

[VPH]

My brother and I voted PS and my mom and dad voted PSD. My grandparents and probably most of my uncles and aunts voted PSD. There's an off-chance my maternal grandfather voted Aliança though; he doesn't like Rui Rio and doesn't really like CDS-PP either.

[Mike88]

My brother and I voted PS and my mom and dad voted PSD. My grandparents and probably most of my uncles and aunts voted PSD. There's an off-chance my maternal grandfather voted Aliança though; he doesn't like Rui Rio and doesn't really like CDS-PP either.

From the USA, 3,256 ballots have been sent to the Electoral Commission. That's almost 2,000 more than in 2015. It could still go up until tomorrow. All the data can be seen here: Report AR 2019 - Info and data

My family, parents, cousins, uncles and aunts, are all going to vote PSD, myself included. My close friends, some will vote PS, others PSD, one CDU and one is torn between PS and PAN. At my work place, it's quite split between PS and PSD.

[Tender Branson]

Why does Portugal have more eligible voters (11 million) than actual people living in the country (10.5 million) ?

I know there are a lot of overseas registered "voters", but what's the point of having all of them on the voter rolls, if only 100.000 votes are returned ?

People who have been out of the country for 10 or 20 years should not be listed as eligible voters any longer ...

[Tender Branson]

2019 general elections: Overseas voting could reach 100,000 voters, a record high.

Until now 97,244 ballots from overseas have reached the Electoral Commission. This is a number 3 times higher than in 2015, where just 28,000 sent a ballot. The ballots need to delivered until October 6, in order to be counted on October 16. The final number could reach 100,000 and could beat the record of overseas ballots from 1980, 108,000 ballots.

Overall, in the 2019 general elections, 147,882 ballots have been cast, counting the overseas ballots and early voting data.

From what I have read, there are 1.6 million (!!!) "voters" registered as living abroad - but only 100.000 of them are voting in the election. 1.5 million are not.

That's only a turnout of 6% from Portuguese abroad.

IMO, only voters who still show an active interest in the elections of their former country should be included in the voter rolls (as in: they have to register themselves).

Everything else would just artificially lower turnout for the whole country.

It makes a difference if you have 9.4 million eligible and 5 million votes cast, or 11 million eligible and 5 million votes cast ...

[Mike88]

Why does Portugal have more eligible voters (11 million) than actual people living in the country (10.5 million) ?

I know there are a lot of overseas registered "voters", but what's the point of having all of them on the voter rolls, if only 100.000 votes are returned ?

People who have been out of the country for 10 or 20 years should not be listed as eligible voters any longer ...

It's was a stupid change in the electoral law, IMO. Basically, every person that has a Portuguese ID card is automatically registered to vote. In the past, only voters that were registered in the consulates and embassies could vote, but now all of them can vote. It will, of course, pervert the turnout rates, and even in the previous elections, going back to 2009, the numbers still don't add up. Because many people left Portugal during the years, they forgot to change their address meaning that in many parishes across Portugal itself, there are more registered voters than actual people leaving.

Of course, in Portugal, this kind of voter registration isn't changed, for now, because of one reason: seat distribution. If the electoral registration law was changed, many towns and districts would lose seats in the local and general elections, meaning less seats for parties to ran, and parties probably don't want that.

[Mike88]

All of the main party leaders have voted.

For live updates, newspapers have election coverage pages:

https://observador.pt/2019/10/06/dia-de-eleicoes-siga-aqui-em-direto/

https://expresso.pt/politica/2019-10-06-Portugueses-ja-votam-politicos-tambem--siga-aqui-em-direto-

https://www.publico.pt/2019/10/06/politica/noticia/dis-eleicoes-dia-decisoes-urnas-ja-abriram-1889019

[Tender Branson]

Why does Portugal have more eligible voters (11 million) than actual people living in the country (10.5 million) ?

I know there are a lot of overseas registered "voters", but what's the point of having all of them on the voter rolls, if only 100.000 votes are returned ?

People who have been out of the country for 10 or 20 years should not be listed as eligible voters any longer ...

It's was a stupid change in the electoral law, IMO. Basically, every person that has a Portuguese ID card is automatically registered to vote. In the past, only voters that were registered in the consulates and embassies could vote, but now all of them can vote. It will, of course, pervert the turnout rates, and even in the previous elections, going back to 2009, the numbers still don't add up. Because many people left Portugal during the years, they forgot to change their address meaning that in many parishes across Portugal itself, there are more registered voters than actual people leaving.

I already suspected that.

Of course, in Portugal, this kind of voter registration isn't changed, for now, because of one reason: seat distribution. If the electoral registration law was changed, many towns and districts would lose seats in the local and general elections, meaning less seats for parties to ran, and parties probably don't want that.

So, what you are trying to say is that cities/regions want to keep their power in parliament by inflating their number of eligible voters, even though these people have long abandoned these cities/regions and moved abroad ...

[Mike88]

Of course, in Portugal, this kind of voter registration isn't changed, for now, because of one reason: seat distribution. If the electoral registration law was changed, many towns and districts would lose seats in the local and general elections, meaning less seats for parties to ran, and parties probably don't want that.

So, what you are trying to say is that cities/regions want to keep their power in parliament by inflating their number of eligible voters, even though these people have long abandoned these cities/regions and moved abroad ...

Yep, it's basically all party power, mainly the two main parties, PS and PSD. There are cities that if they clean up the electoral voter registration lists, they could lose 2/3 seats in the local elections, and in the general elections, just look, for example, to Vila Real district: they have around 218,000 registered voters and elect 5 MPs, but they have a population of just above 200,000, meaning that if the voter rolls were updated, Vila Real could lose one seat that would go to the big district: Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Faro, Braga or Aveiro. That's one of the reasons, IMO, that electoral system should be changed.

[Tender Branson]

Of course, in Portugal, this kind of voter registration isn't changed, for now, because of one reason: seat distribution. If the electoral registration law was changed, many towns and districts would lose seats in the local and general elections, meaning less seats for parties to ran, and parties probably don't want that.

So, what you are trying to say is that cities/regions want to keep their power in parliament by inflating their number of eligible voters, even though these people have long abandoned these cities/regions and moved abroad ...

Yep, it's basically all party power, mainly the two main parties, PS and PSD. There are cities that if they clean up the electoral voter registration lists, they could lose 2/3 seats in the local elections, and in the general elections, just look, for example, to Vila Real district: they have around 218,000 registered voters and elect 5 MPs, but they have a population of just above 200,000, meaning that if the voter rolls were updated, Vila Real could lose one seat that would go to the big district: Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Faro, Braga or Aveiro. That's one of the reasons, IMO, that electoral system should be changed.

Yes, the seats should obviously be distributed along the last census numbers, using only the resident population (or citizens of course, as they are the ones who can vote).

Which parties are benefitting from this current inflated seat system and which parties are losing out ? Or is it evenly distributed among parties and it's mostly about cities/regions who don't want to lose their clout in parliament ?

[Mike88]

Of course, in Portugal, this kind of voter registration isn't changed, for now, because of one reason: seat distribution. If the electoral registration law was changed, many towns and districts would lose seats in the local and general elections, meaning less seats for parties to ran, and parties probably don't want that.

So, what you are trying to say is that cities/regions want to keep their power in parliament by inflating their number of eligible voters, even though these people have long abandoned these cities/regions and moved abroad ...

Yep, it's basically all party power, mainly the two main parties, PS and PSD. There are cities that if they clean up the electoral voter registration lists, they could lose 2/3 seats in the local elections, and in the general elections, just look, for example, to Vila Real district: they have around 218,000 registered voters and elect 5 MPs, but they have a population of just above 200,000, meaning that if the voter rolls were updated, Vila Real could lose one seat that would go to the big district: Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Faro, Braga or Aveiro. That's one of the reasons, IMO, that electoral system should be changed.

Yes, the seats should obviously be distributed along the last census numbers, using only the resident population (or citizens of course, as they are the ones who can vote).

Which parties are benefitting from this current inflated seat system and which parties are losing out ? Or is it evenly distributed among parties and it's mostly about cities/regions who don't want to lose their clout in parliament ?

The parties that benefit most from this are PS and PSD, but especially the PSD as they are very strong in rural areas. For example, in many rural parishes, the PSD, in local elections, racks up easily numbers around 60/70%, giving them a ton of seats, and in the general elections the same thing: PSD gets benefited in the most rural districts: Vila Real, Bragança, Guarda, Viseu. Because the more rural district are very bipolarized between PS and PSD, the smaller parties suffer the most. Now, if rural districts lose some seats to the big districts, smaller parties are benefited as it will be easier for them to enter or increase their presence in Parliament.

[Walmart_shopper]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

[Tender Branson]

Here is my prediction (even though I have no clue):

34% PS
32% PSD
10% BE
  6% CDU
  5% CDS-PP
  5% PAN
  2% CH
  6% Others

Turnout: 52%

[Mike88]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

[Mike88]

2019 general election: Turnout during the day.

Turnout until 12:00h:

2019 - 18.8% (-1.9)
2015 - 20.7%
2011 - 20.0%
2009 - 21.3%

From here: https://www.legislativas2019.mai.gov.pt/

[Double Carpet]

Thanks for the updates!

Do you have a link for one or more TV stations that won't be geoblocked?

Thanks!!

[Tender Branson]

2019 general election: Turnout during the day.

Turnout until 12:00h:

2019 - 18.8% (-1.9)
2015 - 20.7%
2011 - 20.0%
2009 - 21.3%

From here: https://www.legislativas2019.mai.gov.pt/

Ughhh.

With those trends, it could only mean 5 million voters out of 10.81 million registered voters.

That would be just 46-47% turnout.

Considering this, I'm actually very happy with the 76% we had here last week.