Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

New polling:

Pitagórica tracking poll - 1 October:

35.6% PS (+0.3)
28.6% PSD (-0.3)
  9.5% BE (+0.4)
  7.8% CDU (nc)
  4.2% CDS (-0.3)
  2.9% PAN (-0.3)
  1.5% Livre (+0.2)
  1.3% CH (+0.2)
  1.1% IL (-0.2)
  1.1% Alliance (+0.5)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 27 and 30 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:
(compared with the May 2019 poll)

Vote share % and seat projection:

37% PS (-2), 97-107 seats
30% PSD (+5), 79-87
10% BE (+1), 18-24
  6% CDU (-2), 8-13
  5% CDS (-1), 7-11
  3% PAN (-1), 2-4
  1% Alliance (nc), 0
  1% IL (new), 0-1
  1% CH (new), 0
  1% Livre (new), 0-1
  6% Others/Invalid (-2), 0

Poll conducted between 26 and 29 September 2019. Polled 3,226 voters. MoE of 1.7%.

[Mike88]

António Costa has suspended all campaign events to follow Lorenzo hurricane passage by the Azores:

António Costa has suspended all campaign events to follow Hurricane Lorenzo track throw the Azores. The hurricane, a category 2 but expected to drop to 1 tomorrow, will pass by Azores this Wednesday and all military and safety forces are on the alert. The PM announced this in a visit to a road construction site in Coimbra, where he received some boos by drivers in the road.

[Mike88]

More data from the UCP-CESOP poll for RTP/Público:

Vote by gender:

Women:

28% PS
17% PSD
  7% BE
  4% CDU
  3% CDS
  3% PAN
  9% Others/Invalid
29% Undecided/Will not vote

Men:

24% PS
22% PSD
  7% BE
  5% CDU
  3% CDS
  2% PAN
11% Others/Invalid
26% Undecided/Will not vote

Vote by Education:

College graduate:

25% PSD
23% PS
10% BE
  5% CDU
  4% CDS
  3% PAN
12% Others/Invalid
19% Undecided/Will not vote

Less than High school:

31% PS
18% PSD
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  3% CDS
  1% PAN
  7% Others/Invalid
30% Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 26 and 29 September 2019. Polled 3,226 voters. MoE of 1.7%.

[Mike88]

Madeira regional government formation: PSD and CDS reach an agreement to form a coalition government.

Both PSD and CDS announced that an agreement between the parties to form a coalition in Madeira has been reached. Both parties reached an agreement about "the guiding and strategic lines" for the formation of a new government in the islands. The agreement has now to be approved by each parties internal structures to go ahead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vote by Education:

College graduate:

25% PSD
23% PS
10% BE
  5% CDU
  4% CDS
  3% PAN
12% Others/Invalid
19% Undecided/Will not vote

Less than High school:

31% PS
18% PSD
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  3% CDS
  1% PAN
  7% Others/Invalid
30% Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 26 and 29 September 2019. Polled 3,226 voters. MoE of 1.7%.

At this point it's so refreshing to see a country where the education divide still runs in the direction it should run. Who knows how long that will last, but still.

Anyway, the trend here is worrying, and I fully expect it to continue in the next few days, but the left's lead is big enough that we're probably safe from a PSD-CDS majority. What do we expect to happen if neither PSD-CDS nor PS-PAN have a majority? Would it be a continuation of the current deal with the PS and the left parties, or have the bridges been definitively burned there? And if so, what's the alternative?

[crals]

Despite the poor relationship between them BE remains more than willing to back a PS government (and is explicitly campaigning on it). PS will have to choose between them and governing without majority support (likely with tacit PSD support).

[Mike88]

Anyway, the trend here is worrying, and I fully expect it to continue in the next few days, but the left's lead is big enough that we're probably safe from a PSD-CDS majority. What do we expect to happen if neither PSD-CDS nor PS-PAN have a majority? Would it be a continuation of the current deal with the PS and the left parties, or have the bridges been definitively burned there? And if so, what's the alternative?

Despite the poor relationship between them BE remains more than willing to back a PS government (and is explicitly campaigning on it). PS will have to choose between them and governing without majority support (likely with tacit PSD support).

The problem will be the PS. The PS, and Costa especially, doesn't want BE in the government, as this would create huge splits in the party. However, if polls are correct, we'll see what the next few poll show, and the PS is around 36/37%, PSD on 30% and BE on 10%, BE will be in much more stronger position than PS, no doubt about that. Keep in mind that Costa was leading polls by almost 20 points a month ago, and now he's losing ground.

The PSD campaign has been very effective and has attacked the PS in a very precise way that rallied their electorate, which was planning to skip this election, and Rui Rio himself has shown very good campaign skills. Costa and the PS campaign, on the other hand, look like a repetition of the disastrous 2015 campaign. There's no excitement and Costa isn't comfortable campaigning these days, he even said that he's first a PM and then a candidate, as campaigning is a "hobby". We'll see how the last 48 hours of campaigning will go.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see, that makes sense. Despite disappointing some of the early hopes placed in him, Costa has been a relatively decent leader by the standards of modern social democracy, undoing at least some of the damage done by hyper-austerity. I can only hope he does the right thing again and doesn't jeopardize his party's identity with a disastrous grand coalition. We've seen what happens to social democratic parties in grand coalitions.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll - 2 October

37.4% PS (+1.8 )
28.5% PSD (-0.1)
  8.9% BE (-0.6)
  7.4% CDU (-0.4)
  4.0% CDS (-0.2)
  3.8% PAN (+0.9)
  1.5% CH (+0.2)
  1.1% Alliance (nc)
  0.8% Livre (-0.7)
  0.4% IL (-0.7)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 28 September and 1 October 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

I see, that makes sense. Costa has been a relatively decent leader by the standards of modern social democracy. I can only hope he does the right thing and doesn't jeopardize his party's identity with a disastrous grand coalition. We've seen what happens to social democratic parties in grand coalitions.

A grand coalition, PS/PSD, is almost impossible. Even if personal relations between Costa and Rio are good, the bad relations between both parties make almost impossible, if not really impossible. PSD would never accept working alongside Costa, and the same for the PS. If Costa doesn't reach an agreement with BE, or CDU, or gains enough seats to form a deal with PAN, Costa will govern in a minority just like Guterres (1999-2002), which has a lot of risks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Right, sorry I was loose with my terms. I meant collaborating with the right in general is probably a bad idea for PS, so we seem to agree. Hopefully Costa does too.

[Mike88]

Right, sorry I was loose with my terms. I meant collaborating with the right in general is probably a bad idea for PS, so we seem to agree. Hopefully Costa does too.

PS+PSD occasional agreements will happen, they have already happened in the last 4 years, take labour/workers reforms for example. The ideal scenario for the PS would be a majority, but that's not gonna happen, probably, the second best scenario would be a strong PS minority, 113/114 seats, and then forge a deal with PAN to get a slim majority of 117/118 seats. Then comes the scenarios the PS would like to avoid: another PS-BE-CDU agreement is unlikely, mainly because of CDU. If CDU has a really bad result on Sunday, they will take it was a signal that they cannot ever again support a PS government. A PS-BE agreement will be very difficult, as BE wants more power within government, but the PS is deeply divided on this, with the more younger generation more willing to compromise with BE, while the old guard rejects the idea of BE in government. Now, Costa is a very cleaver politician and he will turn to the left or to right in order to survive politically. The last four years were a clear example: he governed with the support of the leftwing but persued policies more aligned with the right (PSD/CDS).

The risk is if Costa becomes a Guterres 2.0 or Sócrates 2.0. Both Guterres and Sócrates had really bad second terms when they were supported by the right. Guterres had embarrassing moments when he needed the support of a single CDS MP, and Sócrates had to rely on the PSD tactical support, that ended when the PSD felt they were going to win an election and ended Sócrates government. If Costa fails an agreement with BE, or doesn't get a good result to forge a deal with PAN, he could have the same fate of Guterres and Sócrates, more Guterres... I admit that Sócrates isn't a good comparison, but still.

[Mike88]

Tense moments in the CDS campaign event in Porto city: A woman tried to assault Assunção Cristas.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1179495346868822016

One woman attempted to assault Assunção Cristas during a campaign walkabout in Porto. This was just one of the tense moments of this campaign action.

[RodPresident]

Pitagórica tracking poll - 2 October

37.4% PS (+1.8 )
28.5% PSD (-0.1)
 8.9% BE (-0.6)
 7.4% CDU (-0.4)
 4.0% CDS (-0.2)
 3.8% PAN (+0.9)
 1.5% CH (+0.2)
 1.1% Alliance (nc)
 0.8% Livre (-0.7)
 0.4% IL (-0.7)
 6.2% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 28 September and 1 October 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

I see, that makes sense. Costa has been a relatively decent leader by the standards of modern social democracy. I can only hope he does the right thing and doesn't jeopardize his party's identity with a disastrous grand coalition. We've seen what happens to social democratic parties in grand coalitions.

A grand coalition, PS/PSD, is almost impossible. Even if personal relations between Costa and Rio are good, the bad relations between both parties make almost impossible, if not really impossible. PSD would never accept working alongside Costa, and the same for the PS. If Costa doesn't reach an agreement with BE, or CDU, or gains enough seats to form a deal with PAN, Costa will govern in a minority just like Guterres (1999-2002), which has a lot of risks.

If IL, Alliance and Chega get seats, can we see a PSD and CDS collapse in next elections?

[Mike88]

If IL, Alliance and Chega get seats, can we see a PSD and CDS collapse in next elections?

No, that's very unlikely, if not impossible. Chega is a weird party that defends law and order, fights corruption, yet its leader, André Ventura, is a staunch Benfica supporter that criticizes the corruption investigations against Benfica and labels them as "witch hunts", so, huge contradiction here. IL is very popular on social media, yet on the 2 elections that they ran, they failed to gain votes: 0.8% in the EP elections, 0.5% in Madeira. And Alliance, well, if Santana Lopes doesn't get elected, the probability of Alliance merging with the PSD and Santana returning to his beloved "PPD-PSD", is very high. Of all the smaller parties, I believe Livre is the one most likely to win a seat, and even them I'm not sure.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper

Vote share % and seat projection:

35.0% PS (-2.9), 104 seats (-10)
26.1% PSD (+2.4), 77 (+10)
  8.7% BE (-1.1), 17 (-1)
  8.0% CDU (-0.6), 16 (nc)
  5.6% PAN (+0.4), 9 (+3)
  4.5% CDS (-1.7), 7 (-2)
12.1% Others/Invalid (+3.5), 0 (nc)

Poll conducted between 26 September and 1 October 2019. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.0%.

[Walmart_shopper]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper

Vote share % and seat projection:

35.0% PS (-2.9), 104 seats (-10)
26.1% PSD (+2.4), 77 (+10)
 8.7% BE (-1.1), 17 (-1)
 8.0% CDU (-0.6), 16 (nc)
 5.6% PAN (+0.4), 9 (+3)
 4.5% CDS (-1.7), 7 (-2)
12.1% Others/Invalid (+3.5), 0 (nc)

Poll conducted between 26 September and 1 October 2019. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.0%.

So the Socialists will likely renew their coalition with the left if these are the results, correct?

[Mike88]

So the Socialists will likely renew their coalition with the left if these are the results, correct?

It depends on the strength each party would have. Like I said above, PS would like to govern alone, but the trend seems that they will have to negotiate. Now, if the PS wins just 35%, they will be in a very precarious situation compared with BE and even CDU. If PS gets a low result, but BE and CDU have a very good result, negotiations will probably be long and complicated as BE, especially them, want power within government, something the PS doesn't want, or part of the PS. CDU would be a more stable partner for PS, but they need to hold on to those 8% and for the moment, this is the only poll that puts them in that score. And, again, Costa could just decide to govern as a minority with the occasional support of the left and the right, who knows, this is António Costa we're talking about.

[Mike88]

The election campaign was marked today by the death of Freitas do Amaral, former CDS leader:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1179811425205850112

Freitas do Amaral. The last of the "fathers" of the democratic regime

Diogo Freitas do Amaral, founder and former CDS leader, minister in the AD (1979-83) and PS (2005-06) governments, died today at the age of 78. He was the last living member of the 4 party leaders that constested the first elections in 1975. The campaign will suffered some changes because of his death: PSD and PS will not play music in their rallies; CDS will make adjustments to the campaign, while BE, CDU and PAN will not make any chances. All party leaders, from left and right, have said they are quite sadden by the news.

Freitas do Amaral founded the CDS in 1974, and constested the first elections where he got 7% of the votes. In 1979, he join the PSD, and PPM, to form the Democratic Alliance (AD) which won the 1979 elections and Mr Amaral became deputy PM. He took the role of acting PM after the tragic death of Francisco Sá Carneiro in December 1980. He left the leadership of CDS in 1983, and ran for the Presidency against Mário Soares in 1986, in one of the most divisive and bitter elections in Portuguese democracy. He lost to Soares by the narrowest of margins, 49% to 51%. In 1988, he was elected once again CDS leader, but a disastrous result in 1991 made him resign. He left CDS in 1992 against the rightwing turn the party was making, and started supporting the PSD. In 2005, he accepted Jóse Sócrates invitation to be foreign affairs minister, a post he held for one year.

Costa announced that a day of national mourning will be decreed on the day of his funeral.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll - 3 October

37.3% PS (-0.1)
28.8% PSD (+0.3)
  9.2% BE (+0.3)
  6.6% CDU (-1.8 )
  4.4% PAN (+0.6)
  3.9% CDS (-0.1)
  1.5% CH (+0.2)
  1.5% Alliance (+0.4)
  0.9% Livre (+0.1)
  0.9% IL (+0.5)
  5.0% Others/Invalid (-1.2)

Poll conducted between 29 September and 2 October 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper

Vote share % and seat projection:

38.8% PS (+0.5), 109/117 seats
25.5% PSD (+2.2), 68/76
  9.6% BE (+0.1), 17/19
  7.1% CDU (nc), 13/14
  5.0% PAN (-0.5), 6/8
  4.0% CDS (-0.5), 5/6
10.0% Others/Invalid (-1.8 ), 0

Poll conducted between 25 September and 1 October 2019. Polled 2,071 voters. MoE of 2.15%.

[Mike88]

Last campaign rallies of the campaign:

PS - Socialist Party rally in Setúbal city
https://twitter.com/psocialista/status/1179854796079026176

PSD - Social Democratic Party rally in Porto city
https://twitter.com/ppdpsd/status/1179829072047689728

BE - Left Bloc rally in Coimbra city
https://twitter.com/EsquerdaNet/status/1179495305076559872

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition campaign walkabout in Lisbon city
https://twitter.com/CDUPCPPEV/status/1179806384336068610

CDS will suspend their campaign after 15:00 this Friday and the PSD big campaign walkabout in Lisbon will be a silent one, just like the PS one today, in memory of Freitas do Amaral.

[Mike88]

More polling:

GfK/Metris poll for SIC/Expresso newspaper:

Vote share % and seat projection:

38% PS (-4), 104-114 seats
28% PSD (+5), 73-83
10% BE (+1), 16-24
  7% CDU (nc), 9-15
  5% CDS (nc), 5-10
  3% PAN (-1), 2-5
  2% Alliance (+2), 0
  1% Livre (+1), 0
  0% CH (nc), 0
  0% IL (nc), 0
  2% Others (-3), 0
  4% Blank/Invalid (-2)

Poll conducted between 23 and 29 September 2019. Polled 1,330 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 2.7%.

[Velasco]

So the Socialists will likely renew their coalition with the left if these are the results, correct?

It depends on the strength each party would have. Like I said above, PS would like to govern alone, but the trend seems that they will have to negotiate. Now, if the PS wins just 35%, they will be in a very precarious situation compared with BE and even CDU. If PS gets a low result, but BE and CDU have a very good result, negotiations will probably be long and complicated as BE, especially them, want power within government, something the PS doesn't want, or part of the PS. CDU would be a more stable partner for PS, but they need to hold on to those 8% and for the moment, this is the only poll that puts them in that score. And, again, Costa could just decide to govern as a minority with the occasional support of the left and the right, who knows, this is António Costa we're talking about.

I have a sense of deja vu. How is the personal relationship between Antonio Costa and Catarina Martins? Do they have good or bad feeling? And how about prominent cabinet members? Do they see the BE people too radical or inexperienced? Regarding the last sentence: Costa woud like to govern alone, but how it is possible he can decide without a majority if no other party backs him? Even a confidence and supply agreement needs a negotiation...

[Mike88]

So the Socialists will likely renew their coalition with the left if these are the results, correct?

It depends on the strength each party would have. Like I said above, PS would like to govern alone, but the trend seems that they will have to negotiate. Now, if the PS wins just 35%, they will be in a very precarious situation compared with BE and even CDU. If PS gets a low result, but BE and CDU have a very good result, negotiations will probably be long and complicated as BE, especially them, want power within government, something the PS doesn't want, or part of the PS. CDU would be a more stable partner for PS, but they need to hold on to those 8% and for the moment, this is the only poll that puts them in that score. And, again, Costa could just decide to govern as a minority with the occasional support of the left and the right, who knows, this is António Costa we're talking about.

I have a sense of deja vu. How is the personal relationship between Antonio Costa and Catarina Martins? Do they have good or bad feeling? And how about prominent cabinet members? Do they see the BE people too radical or inexperienced? Regarding the last sentence: Costa woud like to govern alone, but how it is possible he can decide without a majority if no other party backs him? Even a confidence and supply agreement needs a negotiation...

Their relationship is complicated. Costa and Martins had periods when there was no problems between them, but in the last 1/2 years things changed. BE became more aggressive against the PS, as well the PS against BE. During the campaign you could see the attacks between both sides: PS accuses BE of being irresponsible and naive, while BE says that the PS lost the 2015 elections and that Costa is only PM because of them. Costa and the PS don't want BE ministers. That's something the PS fears, but, although the BE wants more power within government, do they want ministerial posts? It's unclear. The PS sees many of BE' proeminent people, like the Mortágua sisters, as too radical and dangerous, and they fear, in the prospect of a low PS result and strong BE result, 10-11%, that they could force an agenda unacceptable for the PS. Now, Costa could just go alone. It has risks having a minority, but the Constitution bars a new election six months after the previous one, so the first budget, Costa could see it passing, the problem could be the second, if the economy continues to be shaky and continues to falls more.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do PAN want ministers or would they just support tje government in return for some environmental/animal welfare policies?