Portugal's politics and elections

[Former President tack50]

Wait, so PSD+CDS came within 1 seat of not having a majority? That is astonishing considering Madeira is  a right wing stronghold

[windjammer]

Dear god this is catastrophic for PSD. I guess the PSD Madeira leader will resign?

[Mike88]

Wait, so PSD+CDS came within 1 seat of not having a majority? That is astonishing considering Madeira is  a right wing stronghold

Yep, it was that close. But it was much closer, because of the congregation of all opposition votes in the PS, and the d'hondt method benefits a party when it accumulates a lot of votes. If the votes were much more distributed by all the minor parties, PSD would be on the verge of a majority, around 23 seats.

Dear god this is catastrophic for PSD. I guess the PSD Madeira leader will resign?

No. He won and a PSD majority was never an issue. It was never going to happen, 2015 was a lucky struck, as they won a majority by just 7 votes.

[Mike88]

António Costa speaking: He says he has called Rui Rio and Albuquerque congratulating them. But he's highlighting the best result ever of the PS in an regional election in Madeira.

[crals]

Considering the polling at one point predicted a left-wing majority this really isn't a bad result for PSD imo.

[Mike88]

Considering the polling at one point predicted a left-wing majority this really isn't a bad result for PSD imo.

The PSD result was exactly what the pre-election polls predicted. The big surprise was the huge concentration of leftwing votes in the PS, a situation no poll predicted. Polls were predicting 9 parties in the regional assembly, only 5 entered, and one only just.

Imagine if this happens in the national level...

Note: the PSD may be regreting the change of the electoral law in 2007. The last system was similar with the national one, each of the 11 municipality elected a certain number of MPs. I will make a simulation to see how would it look with the old system this election.

[Mike88]

The electoral campaign for the 2019 general elections started at midnight.

Pitagórica tracking poll:

38.7% PS (-1.9)
26.8% PSD (+0.2)
  9.7% BE (+0.9)
  6.9% CDU (+0.1)
  5.5% CDS (+0.3)
  3.1% PAN (-0.5)
  1.0% IL (+0.5)
  1.0% Alliance (-0.1)
  0.5% CH (nc)
  0.2% Livre (nc)
  6.7% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 September. Polled 600 on a 3 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Results by parish in Madeira:

https://twitter.com/funchalnoticias/status/1175935044797501441

And also, PSD is not giving up on their 22nd seat. It seems that the last seat was decided by just... 8 votes, between PSD and CDU. PSD still has some hopes in gaining that seat as tomorrow, the election committee will meet to approve the final results and analyze the invalid/null ballots. However, it's extremely unlikely that the PSD would win their 22nd seat, IMO.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll:

37.6% PS (-1.2)
27.7% PSD (+0.9)
10.4% BE (+0.7)
  7.6% CDU (+0.7)
  4.7% CDS (-0.8 )
  3.3% PAN (+0.2)
  0.9% IL (-0.1)
  0.7% Alliance (-0.3)
  0.5% Livre (+0.3)
  0.2% CH (-0.3)
  6.3% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 September. Polled 600 on a 3 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Note: the PSD may be regreting the change of the electoral law in 2007. The last system was similar with the national one, each of the 11 municipality elected a certain number of MPs. I will make a simulation to see how would it look with the old system this election.

Finished the simulation. If the electoral system had not changed in 2007, the PSD would still lose the majority, but would win exactly half of the seats in the regional parliament:

34 PSD 50.0%
29 PS 42.7%
  3 JPP 4.4%
  2 CDS 2.9%

I used the 68 seats, elected in 2004, and distributed the seats by the 11 municipalities according to the number of registered voters in 2019.

[Mike88]

2019 general election campaign: The debates are over.

Yesterday, the last debate, between the 6 major parties, occurred. During the morning, Rui Rio and Costa faced on a radio debate. Just like the TV debate, last week, Rio and Costa debated in the 3 main news radios in Portugal. Rio, like in the first debate, came out strong against Costa, but, unlike the first debate, Costa this time fought back. The debate focused more on fiscal issues and on the curious competition of who has the "better Centeno", Rio or Costa? When attacking Costa's economic and fiscal policies, Rio said to Costa that he also has his own Centeno, aka Joaquim Sarmento. Costa responded saying, if he's so important why isn't he in the PSD lists, where Rio responded that the "real" Centeno is fed up with the Finance ministry and will leave after his term in the Eurogroup ends. Rio also used the "familygate" against Costa, as he accused the PS of seeing themselves as the "owners of all this", adding that no party is a virgin, but that the PS goes to far. Costa responded attacking Rio's choice of candidates, many being investigated for corruption, and that he does not received ethics lessons from anyone.

https://twitter.com/rui_barros17/status/1176211824829784065

Costa vs Rio. One Centeno is worth a thousand debates

Rio also labeled the recent PS/BE bad relations as only a film, and that they would negotiate a deal if the PS doesn't get a majority. Costa didn't responded decisively, but confirmed he wants to put BE aside a bit, to gain votes on the center/center-right, even updating that famous catch phrase during the troika years "We're not Greece" to "We're not Spain", regarding the huge politically instability in that country.

During yesterday night, the final debate occurred. All the 6 major party leaders attended a 2 hour debate on RTP1. It was basically everyone against Costa and PS. BE leader, Catarina Martins, and Costa staged a harsh exchange of words, with Martins upset with Costa's words about putting aside BE in the radio debate that morning, and she reminded Costa's words, in 2015, that a PS-BE agreement would be a "theater blow" and that she felt insulted that PS is portraying the left as an embarrassment in this campaign. She also disclosed a secret meeting between PS and BE in 2015. Costa was really upset with Martins revealing private talks and he reminded that BE has also treated the PS as an enemy.

https://twitter.com/MSN_Portugal/status/1176342302891003904

Debate with accusations between Catarina Martins and Costa

Rio was quite humorous during the debate, and when the moderator ended Costa and Martins harsh attacks, Rio took the opportunity to take a jibe against Costa and Martins, saying he "didn't paid a ticket, but he's enjoying it". Rio and Costa accused one and another of having miracles for the economy, with Costa saying he's the one that is super optimistic, not Rio. Assunção Cristas (CDS) and Costa also had very tense moments during the debate, especially at the end, when Cristas was making her closing remarks and she pointed to Costa, in which Costa, quite upset, said "It's not worth extending your little finger!", and when she accused him of not knowing the real Portugal, Costa responded "My country is not [made] only of Alentejo homesteads", which Cristas angrily replied "I do not have any", and that she had to come from Angola, where her family lost everything and was not compensated. Tense moments. Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU) and André Silva (PAN) were quite low profile in the debate.

With the debates over, Aximage made a poll on who came out on top on all the debates, and Costa and Rio are neck and neck:

Q: Who had the best performance in the debates?

29.1% António Costa
25.5% Rui Rio
10.4% Catarina Martins
  5.1% Assunção Cristas
  2.7% Jerónimo de Sousa
  2.6% André Silva
24.6% None

Q: Who had the worst performance in the debates?

23.7% André Silva
21.7% Assunção Cristas
10.2% António Costa
  8.6% Rui Rio
  7.3% Jerónimo de Sousa
  5.6% Catarina Martins
22.9% None

Poll conducted on 24 September 2019. Polled 302 voters. MoE of 5.60%

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

36.0% PS (-1.6)
28.5% PSD (+0.8 )
10.5% BE (+0.1)
  6.8% CDU (-0.8 )
  4.4% CDS (-0.3 )
  3.7% PAN (+0.4)
  1.2% IL (+0.3)
  0.9% Livre (+0.4)
  0.5% CH (+0.3)
  0.5% Alliance (-0.2)
  7.0% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 20 and 23 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 3 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[crals]

PSD are stedily climbing, seems Rio's good debate performances could save them from a massive electoral failure, at the expense of CDS. Cristas' recent claim that high class people are the most forgotten about won't help either.

[Mike88]

PSD are stedily climbing, seems Rio's good debate performances could save them from a massive electoral failure, at the expense of CDS. Cristas' recent claim that high class people are the most forgotten about won't help either.

The momentum, if there's one even, is in the PSD favour. Rio's performance in the debates was quite strong, even with very low expectations, while Costa opted to be low profile, he only changed in the last debate in my opinion. But, the anti-fire masks scandal last week seem to be hurting the PS, and in the next few weeks the Tancos air base robbery accusation will probably come out, and it could also overshadow the PS campaign. We'll have to see if other polling companies confirm this PSD trend, but one thing is certain, Rio is really fighting for his political life. We'll see how the next few days of campaigning unroll.

[Mike88]

Early voting: 28,176 voters already registered to vote early. The deadline is September 26. Early voting occurs next Sunday, September 29.

Also, overseas postal voting: 11,516 voters have already sent their ballots.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the radio and TV debates on Monday:

Q: Who do you think won the radio debate between Rio and Costa?

38.7% Rui Rio
37.9% António Costa
21.4% Both/Neither
  2.0% Undecided

Q: Who do you think won the 6 leaders debate on RTP1?

31.2% Rui Rio
30.9% António Costa
18.9% Catarina Martins
  7.1% Assunção Cristas
  2.9% André Silva
  1.5% Jerónimo de Sousa
  7.5% No one

Poll conducted on 24 September 2019. Polled 302 voters. MoE of 5.60%

[Mike88]

The Tancos air base robbery rocks the campaign.

The accusation of the Tancos air base robbery is hours away from coming out, and the first reports from it say that the former defense minister Azeredo Lopes will be accused of trying to cover up the robbery for political reasons. But, the main headline about this case was the alleged accusation that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa knew about everything. The media reported this suspicion yesterday, as one of the army officers was caught, in wiretaps by the police, saying that the "major parrot of the kingdom" knows everything. The media, and the police, suspect that the curious characterization is a reference to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

The President, in the UN climate summit in New York, denied any involvement and literally said "I'm not a crook!". The media has been reporting that the accusation will accuse the former defense minister of cover up, and that the Presidential Palace is furious towards Costa. According to Expresso newspaper, Marcelo's team believes someone made this accusation up to shift focus from Costa and the PS, but that, in the end, it will hurt Costa politically. In fact, Costa was the only major party leader to not defend Marcelo today.

[Mike88]

The media is reporting new material about the Tancos air base robbery scandal accusation:

Observador newspaper is revealing text messages (SMS) between former defense minister, Azeredo Lopes, and a PS MP, Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro, in which the former minister admits he will lie to Parliament and hid information:

Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro (TBR): Congratulations on the weapons recovery, great relief…! I didn't mean to upset you today.

Azeredo Lopes (AL): It was good: for the first time, stolen weapons were recovered. I knew it, but I had to put up with the s*** I took. But, of course, I didn't know it was going to be today.

TBR: Are you coming to the AR [Assembly of the Republic] to explain?

AL: I will come, but I can't tell them what I'm telling you. Still, it was a bomb.

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

36.4% PS (+0.4)
27.0% PSD (-1.5)
10.6% BE (+0.1)
  6.9% CDU (+0.1)
  4.4% CDS (nc)
  3.0% PAN (-0.7)
  1.8% IL (+0.6)
  1.2% Livre (+0.3)
  0.7% CH (+0.2)
  0.5% Alliance (nc)
  7.6% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Poll conducted between 21 and 24 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 3 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who exactly is Livre for? I assumed their niche would be lost by the rise of PAN.

[VPH]

Who exactly is Livre for? I assumed their niche would be lost by the rise of PAN.

Seems almost like the base falls between BE and PAN. Younger, green-minded voters but maybe those who think PAN is still too much of a one-issue party??

[Mike88]

Who exactly is Livre for? I assumed their niche would be lost by the rise of PAN.

Seems almost like the base falls between BE and PAN. Younger, green-minded voters but maybe those who think PAN is still too much of a one-issue party??

Livre was the result of a split in BE by Rui Tavares. He founded Livre in early 2014, but never achieved big electoral support. The party seems to be every pro-europe, Rui Tavares appeared in the EP election TV debates with a EU flag shirt, defends a more moderate view of the economy and has a lot of green initiatives. Their main appeal in this election is their main candidate for Lisbon, Joacine Katar Moreira, which they want to be her to be the first black MP in the Portuguese Parliament.

[Mike88]

Tancos air base robbery scandal: Former defense minister accused of abuse of power and prevarication.

The DA office has revealed the formal accusation of the Tancos air base robbery, in 2017. The ruling accuses the former defense minister, Azeredo Lopes, of abuse of power, prevarication and two crimes of denial of justice. Another 22 more suspects were also charged with accusations. The DA divided the ruling into 2 phases: The robbery itself, where suspects will be charged with terrorism, arms traffic and criminal association, and another phase regarding the cover up and scheme to found the stolen weapons.

Until now, only the PSD has come out with strong use of this ruling against Costa and the government. Rui Rio, PSD leader, made a press conference this afternoon saying that all of this looks very bad for Costa and that there's little possibility of Costa not knowing about the cover up. Rio added "if a PS MP and leader of the PS-Porto knew about it, the PM didn't?. With a case this serious he doesn't inform the PM?". Rio concluded that either scenario are very bad for Costa. He also suggested that it was the PS that tried to implicate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in this case, like it was reported yesterday.

[Mike88]

Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

[crals]

Who exactly is Livre for? I assumed their niche would be lost by the rise of PAN.

Livre's niche is identity politics. Their lead candidate is a black woman with a disability and they're campaigning pretty much solely around that.