Portugal's politics and elections

[Velasco]

It's nice to know that, unlike Casado, Rio is not a social conservative wanting to free us from the "gender ideology" and the "collectivist movements" like feminism. My comment was motivated by the similarity that I see (or I believed to see) between the PSD and the PP approaches to public healthcare, from what I read in the news you linked. Also, the expression "sem complexo ideologico" resembles Casado a bit. Possibly there are differences between the Spanish and Portuguese public healthcare systems. I ignore what is the current situation of the service in Portugal. Is it too damaged by the budget cuts of previous years? Is the PSD standing for public/private co-management? The PP regional governments of Madrid and Valencia implemented some "co-management" experiments. There is a hospital in the town of Alzira  (Valencia) that which management was a concession to a private enterprise. The experiment failed and privatization was reversed by the current regional government due to losses and deficient management. in Spain, the PSOE and the left are opposed to co-management. 

[Mike88]

It's nice to know that, unlike Casado, Rio is not a social conservative wanting to free us from the "gender ideology" and the "collectivist movements" like feminism. My comment was motivated by the similarity that I see (or I believed to see) between the PSD and the PP approaches to public healthcare, from what I read in the news you linked. Also, the expression "sem complexo ideologico" resembles Casado a bit. Possibly there are differences between the Spanish and Portuguese public healthcare systems. I ignore what is the current situation of the service in Portugal. Is it too damaged by the budget cuts of previous years? Is the PSD standing for public/private co-management? The PP regional governments of Madrid and Valencia implemented some "co-management" experiments. There is a hospital in the town of Alzira  (Valencia) that which management was a concession to a private enterprise. The experiment failed and privatization was reversed by the current regional government due to losses and deficient management. in Spain, the PSOE and the left are opposed to co-management.  

Yeah, Rui Rio may be the most liberal PSD leader on social issues till date, even more than Passos Coelho. He's in favour of euthanasia, abortion, gay marriage, gay adoption, legalization of prostitution, you name it. He sometimes clashes with some PSD members because of social issues, the euthanasia debate was one of those clashes.

There is a general sense that the NHS is worse now than 3 or 4 years ago. Healthcare is one of the biggest dark spots of Costa's government. During the Troika, the NHS suffered some cuts and working hours increased from 35 to 40 per week, but healthcare workers were aware of the economic difficulties the country was in and didn't protest a lot, but there were protests of course. Costs in prescription drugs were lowered and many hospitals debts were restructured. When the economy started to recover, things became worse. Spending didn't increase, wages continued stagnant and the NHS staff became more and more furious by the government's lack of strategy. For example, they lowered the working hours from 40 to 35 per week, but failed to prepare the system to hire more nurses and doctors and now many hospitals are having staff shortages. The minister of health is the most unpopular minister of Costa's team and there's a sense that who controls the health ministry is the finance minster, Mário Centeno. So, the overall mood isn't good. Also, it's interesting that in the past the PS was the huge fighter for the NHS, the minister who created the NHS was from the PS, but now the roles changed and PSD, plus CDS, became the most vocal defenders of the NHS. Both parties voted against the creation of the NHS in 1978.

What Rio meant about a reform "sem complexo ideologico" is a reform that is agreed between the two main parties, PSD and PS. Rio likes to talk a lot about general agreements between the two parties on big issues like Justice, Health and Education. I don't know how co-management works in Spain, but we here have Public-Private Partnerships (PPP). In these situations, hospitals are owned by the state, the services are paid by the state but the management is done by a private company. There are 4 hospitals administered this way, and some are well managed, others not really. For example, Braga Hospital is somewhat well managed while Cascais Hospital isn't. Amadora Hospital was a PPP but in 2008 became public again, but quality didn't improve. The main discussion about the NHS is how to fund it in a time where there's still a big budget contention.  

[Velasco]

What Rio meant about a reform "sem complexo ideologico" is a reform that is agreed between the two main parties, PSD and PS. Rio likes to talk a lot about general agreements between the two parties on big issues like Justice, Health and Education.

Thanks for clarifying the meaning, because I had it backwards. When Casado and others in the Spanish Right say "sin complejos ideológicos", they mean "unashamed ideology". So Rio is a man who wants to reach consensus on the big issues, instead of ideological confrontation. Certainly he doesn't look like Casado. He seems to be... reasonable.

Personally I prefer people with socially liberal stances, although on the tricky matter of prostitution my feelings are closer to Sweden than to the Netherlands. Anyway my stance s not conclusive and the issue is controversial even in the left and in the feminist movement.

As for co-gestion models in Spain, keep in mind that healthcare has been devolved to regions. As I said, there have been experiments in Madrid and Valencia under PP regional administrations. Regional government changed in Valencia, but not in Madrid and I think there are some public hospitals there with private management. I should research to find where are they located within the region.

[Josecardoso17]

Mike,i think that CDS was the only party to vote against the creation of the NHS ,PSD deputies were independent and some abstained and some voted in favour and some against,i think

[Mike88]

Mike,i think that CDS was the only party to vote against the creation of the NHS ,PSD deputies were independent and some abstained and some voted in favour and some against,i think

Nope. PSD, CDS and PSD independent MPs voted against the creation of the NHS. I got wrong was the vote date, it was voted in 1979, not 1978.

[Mike88]

António Costa announces 7 new ships to the Portuguese Navy, in order to follow the NATO agreements:

PM António Costa has announced that the Portuguese Navy will have 7 new ships, in the next 6 to 8 years, in order to follow the NATO agreements. The announcement was made during the christening of a new navy ship, Sines, in Viana do Castelo shipyards. The godmother of the new navy ship was Costa's wife, Fernanda Tadeu. This ship was commissioned by the previous PSD/CDS government in 2015.


Sines navy patrol ship. 7 more will be operating until 2026.

Costa said that "every euro spent will become worth 3 euros because we will strengthen national defense, the scientific system and the industrial fabric". A new ship will cost around 60 million euros and its construction will last around 2 years. Therefore, the total cost of these ships will be around 420 million euros.

Adding to this, on the political front, PCP has apparently changed its mind about supporting a possible PS minority government after 2019. In an interview to Público newspaper, the PCP's caucus leader, João Oliveira, says that "the level of strength the PCP will have in the 2019 elections will be crucial" and that "it will never be from the PCP that living and working conditions of the Portuguese stop moving forward"

[Josecardoso17]

Mike,i think that CDS was the only party to vote against the creation of the NHS ,PSD deputies were independent and some abstained and some voted in favour and some against,i think

Nope. PSD, CDS and PSD independent MPs voted against the creation of the NHS. I got wrong was the vote date, it was voted in 1979, not 1978.

your right,sorry ,i was thinking about the votes for the 1976 constitution .

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from July:

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (+2.0)
27.2% PSD (-0.6)
  9.5% BE (-0.8 )
  7.4% CDS (+1.1)
  7.0% CDU (-0.2)
  7.6% Others/Invalid (-0.9)
  2.3% Undecided (-0.6)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

17.4 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
12.2 António Costa
10.6 Rui Rio
10.3 Catarina Martins
  9.2 Jerónimo de Sousa
  8.1 Assunção Cristas

Preferred PM:

57.0% António Costa (-0.3)
30.1% Rui Rio (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 July 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Political update:

Mário Centeno, Finance Minister, gave an interview, this week, which surprised pundits and parties. In an interview to Púbico newspaper, Centeno said that the sustainability of the budget cannot be harmed and that the budget is for all Portuguese, not some special classes. He also said that wages increases for public workers could not happen next year, although he was vague about it, adding that sustainability is everything. He also almost ruled out increases in pensions for retirees and that the gas tax (ISP) will not be reduced.


Mário Centeno giving an interview to Antena 1 radio in Oct. 2017.

Political parties and unions reacted very badly to this interview, except for BE, which had a curious reaction. Catarina Martins said she was alongside with Centeno in saying that the budget is for all Portuguese, but we shouldn't be talking about past budgets. PCP depreciated Centeno's interview while the PSD, in the voice of Rui Rio, said that once again when the hour of truth comes, there is no money. The media also didn't take Centeno's interview very well. One pundit said "Vitor Gaspar, leave the body of Centeno!", alluding to the PSD/CDS minister of finance policies during the troika years.

Speaking of interviews, Rui Rio also gave his 1st interview since becoming leader of the PSD to TVI. Unlike Centeno's interview, his didn't create any fuss. In the interview, Rio said that if the budget doesn't pass Costa has to approve a PSD/CDS government, but he quickly said that he believes the budget will pass because none of the 4 left parties want to look bad in the picture. He also said that he's against the reduction of 40 to 35 hours in the NHS because it is creating chaos in Hospitals.


Rui Rio giving an interview to TVI/TVI24.

He also commented about Santana Lopes's decision to leave the PSD saying it will always be a loss to the party but if Santana wants to create a party to the right of the PSD, it hurts the PSD just a little because the PSD wins elections by competing in the center ground. Reactions weren't very positive to this interview. Some pundits say that Rio has once again missed a chance to present a clear alternative to Costa, while others say that Rio was just showing his style of "take it or leave it".

On election predictions/projections, here's a graphic with the current trends of the 5 main parties:



The PS seems to have stooped its decline, the chaotic teachers strike definitely helped the PS, while the PSD stooped its very slow growth and parked somewhere between 27-28%. BE continues very stable, while in the race for 4th place, there could be a "sorpasso" in the next few months with CDS gaining 4th place and CDU falling for 5th place.

In the Darque and Terena (S. Pedro) local by-elections, the deadline to submit candidacies ended this week. Darque will have 4 parties in the ballot while Terena (S. Pedro) will have 2 parties and an independent movement. The by-elections will be held on 2 September. The list is the following: (the parties are listed by the order they will appear on the ballots)

Darque parish by-election, 7,337 voters:

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition
PSD - Social Democratic Party
PS - Socialist Party
CDS - People's Party

Terena (S. Pedro) by-election, 630 voters:

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition
PS - Socialist Party
DITA - Alandroal is Our Party

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Madeira region:

36.3% PSD, 18/19 members
35.7% PS, 18/19
  7.1% CDS, 3/4
  6.0% JPP, 3
  4.8% CDU, 2
  3.9% BE, 2
  1.2% PTP
  5.0% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 July 2018. Polled 1,018 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Controversy surrounding BE councillor for Lisbon, Ricardo Robles: Robles puts up for sale a building worth 5.7 million euros after having bought it for 347,000 euros.


Ricardo Robles during a press conference, today, after the controversy broke.

It is the controversy of the day, and maybe the weekend. BE councillor for Lisbon city hall, Ricardo Robles, put up for sale a building worth, now, 5.7 million euros after he bought it, alongside his sister, for 347,000 euros. The building, located in downtown Lisbon, had a complete upgrade that costed 650,000 euros. Nothing wrong here, unless Robles was one of the most fierce critics, following BE party line, of real estate speculation in Lisbon.

During a press conference, he explained the deal saying that no tenants were expelled and those who left were by mutual agreement and that the fact he owns the building, doesn't diminish his policies for housing in Lisbon. He also added that the sale was stooped 6 months after it started, during 2017.

[Mike88]

More developments in the "Roblesgate":


The building in the center of the controversy in Lisbon.

It has been reported, today, that Ricardo Robles, BE councillor for Lisbon city hall, has more houses/flats to be rented. One house has a rent of 1,300 euros per month. Sol newspaper also says he has another flat that he bought without a bank loan. Robles has denied that he owns this flat.

The media are portraying this as a huge example of hypocrisy from the part of Robles and from the Left Bloc (BE). So much so, that today Catarina Martins, BE leader, literally used the Trump card of "Fake News" to attack the press and to also attack the PSD, which is demanding the resignation of Robles.

At the same time this is happening, the house owned by Robles and his sister, the one pictured above, was vandalized by some people. Someone wrote in the walls of the building "Someone could live here", alluding to BE posters criticizing urban speculation and high rents in Lisbon. And it's being reported that the building is still up for sale, unlike what Robles said yesterday, in a real estate website called Portugal-imo.com for the exact price of 5.7 million euros.

[Mike88]

The "Roblesgate" continues. Now, it seems that the renovation paid by Robles of the building he bought, left 4 people without a job in a coffee shop, in the building, that was closed by court order. The owner of the coffee shop said that Robles wanted to increase the rent from 270 euros to 400 euros per month. He refused, so Robles sent an eviction notice to him. All of this happened in 2016.

In Madeira, the annual PSD festival/rally happened this Sunday. According to the party, more than 20,000 people came to the rally which had Rui Rio, PSD leader, and Miguel Albuquerque, President of Madeira, as the main speakers. The big surprise this year, was the presence of Alberto João Jardim, President of Madeira between 1978 and 2015.


Miguel Albuquerque, left, and Rui Rio, right, in the PSD rally in Madeira.

In a time where polls show a dead heat race in Madeira, the islands have regional elections next year, Rui Rio kept national politics out of his speech and focused on Madeiran politics. He hailed the work of Alberto João Jardim as president of the region and reminded the crowd of what was Madeira before 1974 and what it is today. Miguel Albuquerque made a harsh speech against the PS saying the they would "sell the autonomy of Madeira".

[Mike88]

Ricardo Robles resigns as councillor for Lisbon city hall:

After more and more new stuff about his real estate dealings came up, and with the press pressuring him and the BE, Ricardo Robles announced, today, that he was resigning from his post as councillor in Lisbon and as committee member of the BE-Lisbon. The BE will choose a new councillor for Lisbon in the next few days. It could be the number 2 of the list, Rita Silva, which has relations with occupy movements, or Manuel Grilo, number 3 in the list, and member of a teachers union.

Nonetheless, the PS and Fernando Medina have already said the the PS/BE coalition in Lisbon isn't in jeopardy. Many pundits are saying that this will hurt the BE moving forward, and that Costa and PCP are laughing at all of this. I have my doubts. BE still has around 8-9% of the votes in the polls and i don't think a vast majority would switch to PS, PCP or others in a heartbeat. We'll see.

Update: BE selected Manuel Grilo, number 3 in the list, as the new BE councillor for Lisbon. Rita Silva refused to take the job.

[Mike88]

Fundraising numbers from 2017 for the 5 main parties:

PSD: 881,000 euros
PS: 206,000 euros
CDS: 131,000 euros
BE: 7,720 euros
PCP: 6,680 euros

[Mike88]

Santana Lopes is back. Now he says he will definitely leave the PSD and form a new party:

Santana Lopes leaves the PSD and will form a new party. In an open letter to PSD members and voters he explains his decision. He says that the party didn't care about his opinions or policies plus he feels that the party was rude to him during the 2004 dissolution. He also criticized Rui Rio's strategy and hailed Passos Coelho.

This move from Santana Lopes doesn't have much future, even if he wins some seats in next year's elections, in my view. There's a part of the PSD that can't stand Costa, but that in the past had a very positive view about him, and anything or anyone, in the PSD, that decides to talk or negotiate with him, is a traitor. But, this doesn't make sense, IMO, because Costa is pursuing many PSD-like policies. Literally, his fiscal and budget policies seem a copy paste of a PSD, or CDS, manifesto. The PSD will lose by a clear margin next year's elections, European and General but Madeira is still in open, and the party will enter in a leadership race which, according to pundits, will be won by Montenegro, or Carlos Moedas if he decides to run. So, Santana Lopes party has no where to go after 2019. A merger with PSD could happen. And not to mention that the Portuguese political scene is one of the most stable in Europe, alongside the UK, as all 5 major parties were formed in the 70's, even BE is a merger of PSR and UDP, parties formed also in the 70's, and every party that wanted to shake up the political scene ended in failure: PRD in the 80's, PND in the 2000's and PDR/Livre in the last elections. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Pedro Duarte, former JSD leader, challenges Rio to call a leadership election:


Pedro Duarte.

Pedro Duarte, former JSD leader, says today in an interview to Expresso newspaper that Rio should leave the leadership of the PSD and call a leadership election. He also says he's ready to lead the party. Pedro Duarte criticizes Rio's strategy of approximation towards the PS and accuses Rio of wanting to become deputy PM rather than PM. At the same time, he says he doesn't want to create divisions in the party on the eve of elections and is making this call right now to Rio for that same reason. Duarte also said that he hasn't talk with anyone in the party leadership and hasn't been rallying troops inside the party.

He admits he's a fan of Macron and Albert Rivera and that he doesn't like many parties inside the EPP, European party the PSD is part of, that defend nationalisms and coalitions with rightwing parties. Also according to Expresso newspaper, Rio doesn't care about these challenges, from Duarte or the Santana Lopes issue, and will continue his strategy and present new policies towards the NHS in September.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on the Madeira government's performance:

Q: How do you rate the performance of the current Regional Government?

59.5% Acceptable
13.7% Disastrous
12.3% Excellent
14.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 July 2018. Polled 1,018 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on Santana Lopes's new party:

% of voters, by party, that would consider voting for Santana's new party:

37.5% CDS
27.8% PSD
25.1% BE
13.8% PS
  3.8% CDU

% of voters on the likelihood of voting for Santana's new party:

73.7% Never
24.4% Would consider
  1.9% Would definitely vote

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 July 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

25.1% BE

lol

[Mike88]

25.1% BE

lol

Yeah... that's one reason many people are skeptical about this poll. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see which party in the center-right will be more hit by Santana Lopes, PSD or CDS? On a first look it would be the PSD because Santana was a high ranking PSD member, but his intentions of creating a somewhat eurosceptic, social conservative party may hurt more CDS than PSD.

[Mike88]

Political update:

This week was dominated, unfortunately, by wildfires and the discussion if the government/help services learned anything from last year's devastating wildfires. Monchique, in the Algarve region, is in the center of it. A massive wildfire, that started last Friday, isn't still dominated and many villages had to be evacuated. Nonetheless, the situation is getting better as the fire is slowing down but isn't still controlled but, at the same time, 39 people were injured, 1 in critical condition. The media reports the somewhat chaotic response by help officials and the PM had to say something. In a press conference, yesterday, Costa was very pessimistic about the fire saying it was going to be worse, but that Monchique was an exception because it showed that the government's response worked adding also, referring about the worsening conditions of the wildfire, that you don't blow a birthday candle on the first strike.


António Costa during the press conference.

The media's response to Costa' press conference was very negative. Some pundits say that Costa showed, once again, a cold and insensible image, while others argue that Costa is just downplaying the situation and giving silly excuses for the failure of the government's wildfire prevention plan. The media is also confronting the PM about his remarks, last June, when he visited Monchique and hailed it as an example of good wildfire prevention. The PM's office has already released a statement saying Costa's remarks "were decontextualized and misrepresented" by the press.

The good news this week was about unemployment. The unemployment rate dropped to a 14 year low of 6.7% in the second quarter of 2018.


Unemployment rate since 1998.

In the 1st quarter of 2018, unemployment stood at 7.9%. The current unemployed population is estimated to be around 351,000 and more the 67,000 new jobs were created in the 2nd quarter.

On the PSD, things seems to have cooled down, a bit, after last very hot weekend. Pedro Duarte's interview, challenging Rio to a leadership contest until the end of the year, fell flat and few agreed with him. It seems he's just "marking his territory" against Luís Montenegro, the other big contender for the PSD 2020 leadership contest.


Pedro Santana Lopes seems to have angered the PSD voter base.

And Santana Lopes departure from the PSD has become a lonely exit. The media is reporting that many PSD members and voters are making furious phone calls to PSD politicians, who supported Santana in this year's leadership contest, and are lashing out their disbelief and anger towards Santana Lopes. No major PSD member is expected to follow Santana Lopes.  

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on Immigration:

Q: What should be the government's policy towards immigration?

60.0% Open to all immigrants
28.6% Open to just immigrants from Portuguese speaking countries
11.0% Closed to all immigrants
  0.4% Undecided

% of voters, by party, that defend closing the door to all immigrants:

20.0% CDS
15.0% CDU
  8.0% PSD
  7.0% PS
  0.0% BE

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 July 2018. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[bigic]

Good to see high support for immigration, especially in this age.

[Mike88]

Local by-election called for Marmeleiro parish, Guarda:

A by-election will be held on 7 October in Marmeleiro parish, Guarda. The parish had, by 2017, 488 registered voters. The parish is currently run by a PSD minority cabinet. The results in the 2017 local elections were the following:

42.6% PSD, 3 seats
35.6% CDS, 3
14.5% PS, 1
  7.3% Invalid

59.2% Turnout

Therefore, the list of local by-elections to be held, in the next few months, is the following:

2 September: Darque parish, 7,337 registered voters
2 September: Terena (S. Pedro) parish, 630 registered voters
7 October: Marmeleiro parish, 488 registered voters