Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Hello Mike, I know this isn't an AMA about Portugal's political history but I wanted to a few questions.

a) Why does Portugal (and it other southern counterparts like Spain, Italy and Greece) have relatively underdeveloped economies particularly compared to its northern counterparts (Scandinavia, UK, Germany etc)? Is this partly due to corruption and public integrity issues (and if so, what are the reasons behind long-run corruption, is this the legacy of monarchical partimonialism?)

b) Why is the "right" in Portugal (CSD/PSD) so weak? Is there anything they (particularly the CSD-PP) can do to win back broad base appeal (focus on grassroots organization and outreach?) Is this due to austerity measures that alienated many Portuguese voters? The fusion of many of the leftist parties akin to the CDS-PP and PSD coalitions? Or is it a geographic thing (the South is very left and the bulk of voters live there?)?

You can ask anything about Portuguese politics. No worry

a) Portugal was always a very poor country. In 1974, Portugal was the poorest country in Southern Europe, as the former regime was a cooperative regime in which capitalism and free enterprise were forbidden. That doesn't mean that there wasn't wealth or capital, on the contrary, the problem is that companies and businesses were forbidden to grow due to the regime's economic policies. After the 1974 revolution, the vast majority of this wealth and capital was destroyed by the 1975 massive nationalizations. Many wealthy people, who owned companies, had to flee the country and those companies were then run by the workers which, ultimately, left many companies bankrupt. After 1976, as the new democratic regime was settling in, new economic policies were put forward to shore up the economy but this coincided with late 1970's economic and inflation crisis. Between 1976 and 1985, Portugal asked twice for an IMF bailout. But after 1986, the country entered in an economic boom. The entry in the common market ensured a booming economy and a huge increase in living standarts and, by 1998, Portugal was almost neck and neck with Spain in GDP per capita.


GDP growth between 1974-2011.

The problem came after the introduction of the euro. The euro showed the weaknesses our economy had with a strong currency like the euro. Our former currency, the escudo was weak and devaluation was used as a routine. After the euro, like i said, our economy stagnated, growing almost nothing in the last decade and a half. Because our economy is heavily overtaxed and has extremely low wages, strong growth is hard to maintain. Corruption has also a role, just look at Sócrates or others, but bad management, bad planning, incompetence and a lack of vision, not to mention the weak structure our economy has, are the main reasons.

b) I wouldn't say PSD, and CDS, are weak. Yes, they are going through a bad moment mainly due to a ridiculous strategy towards Costa's government. After winning the 2015 elections, 39% to the PS's 32%, but without a majority ensuring then the PS minority with the BE and CDU support, the PSD, and CDS to some extent, basically said to the country "hell will fall over you" with the PS government. Well it didn't and they got hammered by this strategy. PSD has recovered a bit since then, but party infighting, the PSD is very well know for having soap opera style fights between its members and i'm not joking, makes the party seen as unstable by voters. PSD was, between 1979 and 1995, present in all governments and, in 1987 and 1991 became the first party to win an absolute majority twice and win more than 50% of the votes.



Cavaco Silva's PSD landslide victories of 1987 and 1991.

PSD will have their shot, not next year, but maybe in 2021. CDS was never a big party, it was always a party in the shadow of the PSD and has a very weak organization nationwide. If it wasn't for the PSD coalitions in local governments, CDS would be even weaker. The PSD, just like the PS, has a huge grassroots and outreach organization, for example the PSD has around 130,000 active members, while PS has around 90,000 and CDS around 30,000. So, i wouldn't say PSD/CDS are weak, what they are is incompetent in dealing with the PS and have a bad communication strategy that seems to be a constant.

Hope i answered your questions. Feel free to ask anything about Portugal.

[Republican Left]

Two more questions, I wanted to ask.

a) Are conservatives rare or hard to fine in Portugal (I understand conservative can be very relative)?

And, the most controversial question of all.

b) How have you been? If I understand, you're an American expat who lives in Portugal (Lisbon?), how is life there? How beautiful is the country, the culture and her people in your opinion?  Is the cost of living there quite affordable or a bit pricey?

[Mike88]

Two more questions, I wanted to ask.

a) Are conservatives rare or hard to fine in Portugal (I understand conservative can be very relative)?

And, the most controversial question of all.

b) How have you been? If I understand, you're an American expat who lives in Portugal (Lisbon?), how is life there? How beautiful is the country, the culture and her people in your opinion?  Is the cost of living there quite affordable or a bit pricey?

a) No, conservatives are not hard to find. If you mean conservative on social issues or values, of course. Portugal is still a somewhat conservative country. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, Portugal is one of Europe's most conservative and Christian countries, as 83% identify as Christians. On social issues, Portugal is also one of the most conservative countries in Europe: Abortion is approved by a 60 to 34 margin, and Gay marriage by 59 to 28 margin. At the same time, that same poll showed that Portugal is more open to others people's religions than the rest of Europe. However, social issues or values is something we don't use to influence our voting preferences. What drives voters to vote a certain way, or not, it's economic/fiscal issues or social welfare issues. People also don't like Catholic Church interferences in the political scene or electoral campaigns. So, they are not hard to find. These conservative voters tend to vote in the PSD and also CDS.

b) I'm a born and raised Portuguese native. I live in the North region, more specifically in the Porto Metropolitan Area, around 1,8 million inhabitants. I've been alright, things are a bit better now. Portugal is, in my view, a very beautiful country with a lot of different landscapes for a small country. Unfortunately, it isn't the most organized country but that's something we Portuguese have in our DNA. It's not a very expensive country, but it isn't also very cheap. It was much cheaper a few years ago. If you earn a wage of around 2,000 euros, you're fine, but if you're wage is around 1,000 euros, the national average, you have to do a lot of stretching for the money to reach until the end of the month.

[Mike88]

Police raids PS and PSD headquarters, town halls and local businesses to investigate corruption in local governments:


PS and PS logos.

The Police made a series of raids this morning in the headquarters of the two main parties, PS and PSD, town and parish halls and in local businesses to investigate corruption practices of PS and PSD local government members while serving, currently or in the past, in public offices. The investigation involves the PS, which was vague in reacting to this, where the PS-Lisbon was raided, but involves more the PSD which has, at least, 3 parish presidents in the city of Lisbon involved in a series of shady and corrupt deals involving campaign payments and parish related deals with companies owned by PSD members. The law forbides this kind of deals. The national headquarters of the PSD was also raided in order for the police to see the books of the local parties, as the party centralized all its books due to the bad financial situation the party is in.

The PS hasn't reacted to this yet, while the PSD has. The secretary general of the PSD said that the investigation is about events occurred before Rui Rio was leader and that the party gave the police everything they needed. He also said the if the PSD members are found guilty in a court of law, they will be expelled by the party.

Fernando Medina, PS mayor of Lisbon, and some PS-Lisbon councillors were also raided by the police, although Medina has already stated that the raid doesn't involve directly Lisbon's city hall, but a more wider investigation.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa met today with Donald Trump:


Marcelo and Donald Trump at the Oval Office.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa became, today, the 5th President of Portugal to meet the President of the USA. Donald Trump received Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Oval Office where, according to Marcelo, he and Trump would discuss US-Portugal relations, and the defence of NATO. But the meeting was marked by a very warm and casual talk between both Presidents. Trump praised Cristiano Ronaldo and asked Marcelo if Ronaldo would be running against him for President, because, according to Trump, Ronaldo would beat Marcelo, in which Marcelo replied: "Mr President, Portugal is not the United States". Burn! Mic drop!

[Mike88]

Political update:

The police investigation on the alleged corrupt practices in the PS/PSD-Lisbon continues. After, on Wednesday, police raided PSD and PS headquarters, in an operation called "Operation Tutti-Frutti", in the city of Lisbon, newspapers started to report the main details of the investigation. Sérgio Azevedo, PSD MP, is suspected of creating and managing several fictitious political jobs, in which he also had the help of Fernando Medina, PS mayor of Lisbon.


Left: Fernando Medina; Right: Sérgio Azevedo.

The deal was simple: "Jobs for the boys" were negotiated between PS and PSD, as the PS would give PSD "jobs" in PS led parishes, in Lisbon city, and the PSD would give PS "jobs" in PSD led parishes. These "jobs" were, the vast majority, fake. Sérgio Azevedo had also the help of other PSD members like Luís Newton, parish president of Estrela, Lisbon. There are also other schemes led by a former JSD member, PSD's youth wing, in which he would finance PSD candidates, but also PS candidates.

At the same time this was happening, Santana Lopes made a decision, that he already made in the past. In an interview to Visão magazine, Santana announced he was leaving the PSD and was considering forming a new party. The problem of all of this? This isn't the first time he does this. In the 90's he almost left the party, the same in 2011. The media and the PSD received this news with "rolling eyes". Many in the PSD, inclusing his supporters, are angry at him and the media is questioning his credibility: How can someone who, only 6 months ago, was denying accusations that he was disloyal to the party and wanted to leave the party, now does this?


Santana Lopes conceding defeat in the 2018 PSD elections.

Plus, the history of former party members that leave their respected party is very dark: in 2004, Manuel Monteiro, former CDS leader, left the party and formed the "New Democracy Party (PND)". It was a total failure, as it only got 0.7% in the 2005 elections and it's now extinct. And then there's LIVRE. Founded by a former BE member, it is currently in a coma, basically.

We'll see what happens, but one thing is almost certain, Rui Rio has probably gained more support from the party base after this week. The corruption scandals, involving many people that oppose Rio, and Santana's decision may help cement his position. He will also win tomorrow's party elections in Porto district. Around 12,500 PSD members in Porto district, will be called to elect a new district party president and all 3 candidates are Rui Rio supporters. Rio is starting to win the big districts in the PSD: he won Santarém last month, he will win Porto, has hold on to Aveiro and Guarda and is expected to gain Braga also.

[Mike88]

Costa agrees to increase Defense spending to 2% of GDP until 2024:

The Portuguese government has sent to NATO its proposal that increases Defense spending to 2% of GDP. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa informed Donald Trump about Portugal's proposals during his meeting with him, at the White House, last week. Portugal currently spends around 1.8% of GDP in Defense and with spending in airplanes for military support, new patrol ships, and new weapons could easily put spending around 2% of GDP

Also, today, António Costa was booed by scientists and researchers during a speech. I think it is the first time Costa receives did kind of treatment. Costa was giving a speech about more investment on Science and he was booed by many people in the room like scientists and researchers. When the minister of Science started to talk, protesters turned their back against him. The mood between the government and the science community isn't good. They criticize the lack of funding from the government and failed promises from Costa, like the integration of many scientists, in a precarious situation, to a normal contract.

[Mike88]

Local by-election in Terena (S. Pedro) parish, Alandroal, Évora, also on September 2nd:

Terena (S. Pedro) parish, in Alandroal, Évora district, will also held a by-election on 2 September. The parish has 767 inhabitants and had, in 2017, 632 registered voters. The results of the 2017 local election resulted in the defeat of CDU and the win of an Independent without a majority. The results were the following:

40.0% Indy (+36.7), 3 members (+3)
25.8% PS (-14.7), 2 (-1)
23.1% CDU (-23.9), 2 (-2)
  7.7% PSD (-0.7)
  3.4% Invalid (+2.6)

78.6% Turnout (+7.7)

The race, in Terena (S. Pedro), will probably be a 3 way race between Independents, PS and CDU. PSD has 0% chances here.

This by-election will occur on the same day as Darque parish by-election.

[Rikschard]

Hi! I'm new to the forum and didn't want to start so bluntly with a question, but i wanted to know.

Do you know where to find the results to the 1975 Constituent Assembly election on a municipal and parish level?

I found them for all the other elections, be it legislative, local, european or presidential, but not for this one.

I was hoping you knew. Thanks.

[Mike88]

Hi! I'm new to the forum and didn't want to start so bluntly with a question, but i wanted to know.

Do you know where to find the results to the 1975 Constituent Assembly election on a municipal and parish level?

I found them for all the other elections, be it legislative, local, european or presidential, but not for this one.

I was hoping you knew. Thanks.

Hi Rikschard and welcome to the forum!

You can see the results of the 1975 elections, by municipality and parish here: https://www.dgai.mai.gov.pt/?area=103&mid=001&sid=007

Click on the part that says "Ficheiro de resultados eleitorais" and a Zip file will open with 4 files: the first file has results by municipality; the second by district; the third by parish; the fourth is just policy stuff. The results are written in Microsoft Notepad and they are ordered in the following way: Registered voters; Voters that cast a ballot; Invalid ballots and votes by party.

It's the only place i know that has all the results of the 1975 elections. Don't know why they don't put the municipality/parish results in the CNE or Marktest sites but, well, what can you do.

Any more stuff or questions regarding Portuguese politics/elections, feel free to ask.

[Velasco]

Costa agrees to increase Defense spending to 2% of GDP until 2024:

The Portuguese government has sent to NATO its proposal that increases Defense spending to 2% of GDP. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa informed Donald Trump about Portugal's proposals during his meeting with him, at the White House, last week. Portugal currently spends around 1.8% of GDP in Defense and with spending in airplanes for military support, new patrol ships, and new weapons could easily put spending around 2% of GDP

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez avoided to give a clear reply to the Trump's letter asking him to raise military spending

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/04/inenglish/1530694316_422100.html

[Rikschard]

Hi! I'm new to the forum and didn't want to start so bluntly with a question, but i wanted to know.

Do you know where to find the results to the 1975 Constituent Assembly election on a municipal and parish level?

I found them for all the other elections, be it legislative, local, european or presidential, but not for this one.

I was hoping you knew. Thanks.

Hi Rikschard and welcome to the forum!

You can see the results of the 1975 elections, by municipality and parish here:

Click on the part that says "Ficheiro de resultados eleitorais" and a Zip file will open with 4 files: the first file has results by municipality; the second by district; the third by parish; the fourth is just policy stuff. The results are written in Microsoft Notepad and they are ordered in the following way: Registered voters; Voters that cast a ballot; Invalid ballots and votes by party.

It's the only place i know that has all the results of the 1975 elections. Don't know why they don't put the municipality/parish results in the CNE or Marktest sites but, well, what can you do.

Any more stuff or questions regarding Portuguese politics/elections, feel free to ask.

Thank you so much!

I knew about that site, that's how i found the parish results for the other elections. Don't know how i missed the constituent elections results...

It's a shame that this is the only place where there are full results.

In the Marktest site, they have the legislative and local elections from 1976, but only up to the municipal level, no parish. In the CNE only the local elections have full results, the other elections don't even have the municipality results.

Then there's the eleicoes.mai.gov site but it only goes up to 1999.

It's a shame because those notepad parish results are really user-unfriendly. Maybe in a few months Marktest or the pt.wikipedia.org election pages will pick them up and make a nice clean table.

[Mike88]

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez avoided to give a clear reply to the Trump's letter asking him to raise military spending

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/04/inenglish/1530694316_422100.html

Increase of Defence spending, or some kind of reorganization, was almost a certainty after the Tancos air base fiasco. That event, last year, showed that Portuguese air and military bases were without any kind of security and that the military material was outdated and could malfunction if used. And, it seems that the NYT made an error by saying that Portugal also received Trump's letter, because yesterday afternoon, the ministry of foreign affair informed that Portugal didn't receive any letter because Trump already knew Portugal's intentions. Nonetheless, it's curious to see the different approaches the Portuguese and Spanish government are having towards Donald Trump's proposals.

Thank you so much!

I knew about that site, that's how i found the parish results for the other elections. Don't know how i missed the constituent elections results...

It's a shame that this is the only place where there are full results.

In the Marktest site, they have the legislative and local elections from 1976, but only up to the municipal level, no parish. In the CNE only the local elections have full results, the other elections don't even have the municipality results.

Then there's the eleicoes.mai.gov site but it only goes up to 1999.

It's a shame because those notepad parish results are really user-unfriendly. Maybe in a few months Marktest or the pt.wikipedia.org election pages will pick them up and make a nice clean table.

The CNE site is a mess, as the latest elections aren't even in the system, only by PDF. They are a bit lazy, in my view, in the CNE. And it's a shame that it doesn't exist a complete historical database of all elections since the XIX century. It would be interesting to see the elections, during the Constitutional Monarchy and also the messy 1st Republic, by district, city, but alas.

Also, because today was a slow news day around here, the latest "controversy", that has gone viral apparently, in Portuguese politics: Communist MP caught, by photo, waiting in a private Hospital in Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Political update:

The police investigations on the two major parties continue. Now, police suspects that the shady money schemes in the PSD-Lisbon were used to pay fees of PSD members in order for them to vote against Rui Rio in the leadership elections in January. Santana Lopes, the candidate these members were paid to vote for, was completely in the dark about this. Because of these schemes, very popular in the two main parties, Rui Rio will abolish massive fee payments for other members to prevent fraud, and only individual payments will be legal.


Rui Rio speaking to reporters.

At the same time, in Celorico de Basto, Braga district, the PSD mayor lost his mandate, by court order, due to hiring his father's company to do legal advice in the city hall. To make things worse, his father was mayor until 2009, when his son succeeded him. It seems that Celorico was an electable monarchy... . But, now he's toasted. Nonetheless, he will appeal against this ruling to a higher court. It isn't first time he was involved in this kind on court dealings, as he was already targeted twice to lose his mandate but won in court.

Today, the changes in the labour code were voted and the government survived this test. After the PS threatened to support some BE/CDU policies that weren't in the deal between the government, UGT and employers associations, many of the policies, proposed by CDU and BE, were struck down by the PS, PSD and CDS and others were delayed to a later date. What is curious about the debate is that there is more support for this new labour code deal in the PSD/CDS than in the PS.


Protesters in front of Parliament.

During the debate, in front of parliament, many protesters from unions close to PCP were criticizing the PS and Costa, accusing him of increasing precariousness in Portugal. The leaders of PCP and BE were also present in the protest rally. PCP even posted a video on facebook comparing Costa, but also Rio and Cristas, to "The Godfather".


Bullfighting will continue legal in Portugal

Adding to this, PAN presented a bill to abolish bullfighthing in Portugal. The bill was massively struck down with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS and PCP. Only BE and PAN voted in favour. Nonetheless, some MPs from PS and PSD voted in favour or abstained. Some cities are, currently, abolishing bullfights. For example, my hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, controlled by the PSD, will abolish bullfights in the city starting in January 2019. Results of the parliamentary vote on the PAN bill to abolish bullfighting:

166 Against (81 PSD; 56 PS; 15 CDS; 14 PCP)
  29 In favour (17 BE; 8 PS; 2 PEV; 1 PSD; 1 PAN)
  14 Abstentions (12 PS; 1 PSD; 1 BE)
  21 Not present (10 PS; 6 PSD; 3 CDS; 1 BE; 1 PCP)

[Mike88]

Political update:

Parliament approved the regulation of Uber and Cabify plus the modernization of old taxis services. This was a re-vote as the previous law was vetoed by the President of the Republic. In the new law, agreed between PSD and PS, Uber, Cabify and others will pay a 5% tax for its services and normal taxi services will now be allowed to also transform to services like Uber. The bill was approved with the votes of PS, PSD and PAN. CDS abstained and PCP, BE and PEV voted against. The approval of this bill happens on the same day that another Uber driver was physical assaulted by several taxi drivers, this time in Lagos city, Algarve.


Parliament approved new laws that were vetoed by the President.

The new gender identification law was also put, again, on the floor of Parliament. After the Presidential veto on the previous law, that didn't required a medical report for sex changes, parties changed the law in order for people between ages 16 and 18 to be obliged to have a medical report to initiate the process of sex change. PSD wanted the medical report to be obligated for all ages, not just between 16 and 18. The bill was approved with the votes of PS, BE, PCP, PEV, PAN and PSD MP Teresa Leal Coelho. The rest of PSD MPs and CDS voted against the ratified bill.

Also, tomorrow, the State of the Nation debate will be held. It marks the unofficial end of the 2017-18 Parliamentary term. Costa will defend his record during the last year. Currently, Costa is suffering pressures from unions, his coalition partners and divisions within the PS, and the government, on what should the PS do with the leftwing parties. Today, the minister of foreign affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, said that a new PS/BE/CDU agreement has to be even more complete, with agreements on EU policy and International relations. Well, this is almost impossible to reach. Shortly after, António Costa tried to "fix" what his minister said, by saying that "the current agreement works and that's what matters".


Augusto Santos Silva, foreign affairs minister, giving an interview to RR radio.

These statements from the foreign affairs minister, Santos Silva is from the more moderate/centrist wing of the PS who doesn't like the current government agreement, created some nervousness in the PS, and it's being reported that the PS caucus leader, Carlos César, will reassure and calm down BE and CDU. Costa is also feeling pressure in the NHS. The lowering of working hours from 40 to 35 per week, is creating staff shortages in many hospitals and there are already resignations of hospital administrations against the government's policies. On the other hand, teachers unions and the government will start negotiations, again, to solve the disputed time and wage recoveries that are frozen since 2010. A special committee to find how much money will cost the full recovery, 9 years, will be created. The government says that it costs 600 million euros, while unions say 250 million. We'll see who's right and wrong on this.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's your opinion on bullfighting? Why did the communists support the ban?

[Mike88]

What's your opinion on bullfighting? Why did the communists support the ban?

Honestly, i'm not in favour or against. It isn't something i enjoy watching because it's extremely boring IMO. If they abolish it, fine by me, if it continues legal, fine. Portuguese bullfighting is much, much more soft than the Spanish. Bullfighting is also popular in the Azores where there is a weird tradition of tying a rope into a bull in which the bull runs in a road and people try to take on the bull. This is also is popular in Barrancos, Beja. In Azores, it recently became controversial after a man was filmed taking on a bull while holding a baby. Now, this kind of stuff i'm against it.

Now, why did PCP voted against the ban? Simple, the regions where bullfighting is very popular are Communist bastions. The Ribatejo area, upper Alentejo area and Central Alentejo are the heartland of bullfighting. In these areas there are huge ranches of bulls and the bullfighting business is a big deal in this area, employing many people. The PS has also a lot of support in this area and that's why they are also a bit nervous in discussing the ban on bullfights. PSD and CDS, on the other hand, don't support the ban because they defend that bullfighting is part of Portuguese culture and tradition. And that BE MP that broke party trend and abstained, is from Santarém district, one of the districts, like Évora and Beja, where bullfighting is extremely popular.

[Velasco]

I'm all against bullfight, but Mike is right on saying that bullfighting is softer in Portugal. At least Portuguese spare the lives of the bulls.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from July: (compared with May 2018)

Vote share %:

42.0% PS (+1.0)
27.3% PSD (-0.7)
  7.9% BE (-0.1)
  7.5% CDS (+0.5)
  7.3% CDU (-0.2)
  1.1% PAN (-0.3)
  6.9% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Popularity ratings: (approval/disapproval; margin and change)

72.5%/8.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +64.2% (+0.2)
49.5%/15.3% António Costa +34.2% (+0.7)
40.6%/29.7% Rui Rio +10.9% (+1.3)
36.6%/30.2% Assunção Cristas +6.4% (+0.2)
31.8%/28.1% Jerónimo de Sousa +3.7% (+0.7)
30.7%/28.9% Government +1.8% (+0.1)
30.7%/29.3% Catarina Martins +1.4% (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 July 2018. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%

Interesting results. Rio is way more popular than the PSD, his popularity was the one that increased the most, the PS is holding on strong well above 40%, the strikes and tensions between PS and BE/CDU seem to be benefiting the PS, and CDS has finally overtaken the Communists. Aximage will also have a poll in the next few days. Wished more polling was available, but the media in Portugal is bankrupt.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on Santana Lopes intentions of forming a new party:

Q: Would you vote in a new party led by Pedro Santana Lopes?

80.0% No
  4.8% Yes
15.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 July 2018. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Mike88]

Weird headlines around here this Saturday:

First, the Tancos air base fiasco is back. Expresso newspaper is reporting that there are still many explosives and grenades missing from the base, after the 2017 weird robbery of the base. The army and the Defense minister, Azeredo Lopes, have said that almost everything material was recovered, but it seems this isn't true. The DA office wiretapped the 6 suspects of the robbery, plus say "National Security is in danger" and the Police doesn't trust the military branch of the police and they are investigating them.


Tancos air base, Santarém district.

The President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is freaking out about this. Just 1 hour after Expresso broke the news, at midnight, Marcelo released a statement saying he is worried and wants a full explanation from the government. PSD has also said the government is jeopardizing National Security, and CDS wants the minister of defense in Parliament to explain himself ASAP.

Second, Sol newspaper is reporting that Augusto Santos Silva, minister of foreign affairs, could be the PS main candidate for the EU elections in May 2019. This doesn't make any sense. Santos Silva isn't well seen by the leftwing parties, and just this week, gave an interview saying BE and CDU must agree in EU and International policy with the PS. This report is, IMO, bogus. Only if Costa wants to infuriate even more the BE and CDU.

And then, of course, there's Santana Lopes. According to Expresso newspapers, Santana doesn't know still what to do about his departure, or not, from the PSD. But if he does leave the party, he, according to the newspaper, wants to form an "Eurosceptic and Patriotic" party with conservative values. If this is true, take this with a grain of salt, it's Santana Lopes after all, this would probably make more divisions in the CDS than in the PSD. CDS always had an anti-Europe wing, while PSD never had one. Not to mention conservative values, as PSD was, in the past, much more conservative, in terms of values, than they are today. We'll see.

[Mike88]

More weird stuff around here:

PSD-Lisbon headquarters were hit by gun shots:


Picture of the shattered window.

PSD staff called the police, this Monday morning, after they found that a window in their headquarters offices was hit by several gun shots. The shots happened either in the weekend or on the early hours of Monday, and no one was in the building during the shots. According to the police, it's still unclear if the shots were intentional or just a "bad joke". The leader of the PSD-Lisbon, Luís Newton, currently investigated with corruption charges, doesn't rule out, also, that the gun shots were intentional.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Today, almost 140 initiatives will be voted in Parliament as today is the last day of 3rd session of the 13th legislature. The biggest, and most important vote, is the vote on the changes of the labour code. The changes have created a rift between the PS and BE/CDU, and the Socialists are also a bit unhappy with the changes. The leftwing parties will vote against the changes, which leaves the government dependent on the PSD. The changes in the labour code were very well received in the PSD, and CDS, and Rui Rio said, well in the beginning, that "any deal between the government and employers will be respected". The PSD announced that they will abstain in the vote, but warned the PS that if they try to please the leftwing parties, the deal is off. Employers associations say the exact same thing.

Yesterday, former minister Manuel Pinho came to Parliament to explain the accusations against him: that he received money to influence energy deals during his tenure. His audition is being labeled as a trainwreck.


Manuel Pinho speaking to MPs in Parliament.

Pinho refused to respond to questions involving payments from Espirito Santo Group and lashed out crazy stuff about energy bills, policy and also went on to talk about his private life. The reactions from the parties were predictable. The PS is shocked by Pinho's reaction, while the PSD, from Rio's own voice, said this was a sad day for democracy and that Pinho's silence tells it all.

Speaking of the PSD, the party held yesterday a dinner to mark the end of the parliamentary session. In that dinner's speech, to the PSD caucus, Rui Rio made several criticisms towards the government, particularly about healthcare.


Rui Rio speaking to the PSD caucus group.

In his speech, Rio laid out what the PSD policies towards the NHS would be. Rio says that the PSD doesn't mind if healthcare is private or public, what matters is that it works and helps people. He accused the government of not respecting the Constitution by not giving quality healthcare services, adding that the NHS should be a global program that has public, private and social services.

Also, a study found that a big majority of Portuguese electorate are fed up with unions. According to this study, made by Porto Lusófona University that polled 1,071 voters, voters say that the unions are unaware of their negative impact in peoples life's as more than 66% of voters believe that strikes shouldn't be the main weapon of unions. 59% believe that unions manipulate workers, only 8.9% believe that unionizing should be mandatory and 34% believe that unions only serve their own interests rather the workers interests.

[Velasco]

Rui Rio seems to be the Portuguese counterpart of our Pablo Casado. Is that stance on healthcare policy a shift of the PSD towards "unashamed" neoliberalism?

[Mike88]

Rui Rio seems to be the Portuguese counterpart of our Pablo Casado. Is that stance on healthcare policy a shift of the PSD towards "unashamed" neoliberalism?

I believe Casado is conservative on social values, and that's the total opposite of Rio. Rio is a mix of fiscal conservative with liberalism, and with a drop of social democracy. The PSD stance on healthcare hasn't change, it's basically, ipsis verbis, what Rio said. In general, the PSD believes that the State should give Hospitals more autonomy, create competition between Hospitals and involve private Hospitals in order to stop the obstruction of many public hospitals. Their position on the NHS is the same for years, and it isn't not that far from what the PS also does.

Rio is actually trying to erase the label of "neoliberal" from the PSD, but the party has always been seen as a liberal/liberal conservative party, a bit ashamed of course. The PSD likes to say they aren't social democrats, but "Portuguese Social Democrats", meaning a mix between social democracy and liberalism.