Where will the race stand on August 12?

[Lyin' Steve]

Put your money where your mouth is Atlas.  If Clinton's really going to completely humiliate Trump, or Trump's gonna drop out, then make your vote.  This is basically after both convention bounces are completely over, Trump's current set of controversies blows over, and we've had another week and a half of unpredictable events.

[Lachi]

I would think C+8 or 9, although I wouldn't be surprised if Trump imploded, and Hillary went to more than +10

[kyc0705]

Donald Trump will have dropped out, Hillary Clinton will be in prison, Gary Johnson will have received a lucrative offer to run the Colorado marijuana industry, and Jill Stein will be recovering from a severe Wi-fi related illness.

As a result, the great and powerful Harambe will rise from the dead and sail to victory, becoming our 45th president.

(But seriously, to answer your question Clinton will probably be up by just under ten points.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton +8, and this battleground:

(Colors denote Safe, Likely, and Lean.)

[Seriously?]

I put it back in the Clinton 3-5 point range (not an option here) after the convention bounces wear off over the next week or so.

Fundamentally, all that is moving these polls is increased partisan intensity post-convention. It will bounce back to the status quo, like it always does.

Atlas, of course, is overreacting in the spur of the moment as per usual.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Atlas, of course, is overreacting in the spur of the moment as per usual.

As is Republican party leadership, Trump's own campaign staff, the entire media establishment, Obama, poll respondents...

[Sir Mohamed]

RCP Average: Clinton 48.9%; Trump 40.5% (Clinton +8.4%)

Something like this I guess.

[jollyschwa]

My brain says CLinton +7-9, but she's running against Trump so... she'll have a double digit lead

[Gass3268]

The thing is that Clinton is getting a bump not only from the convention but also Trump going full crazy for the past week (basically since his Russia claims). While the convention bump will most likely recede, I don't see how he gain back the people who now think he's clinically insane. I'm going to guess that Hillary's lead will be around 7% by the end of next week.

[Senator Spark]

Clinton +4

[Mallow]

Clinton +6 to +7, went with the latter, though the former wouldn't surprise me at all.

[RINO Tom]

As the Economist said, "it's shocking how bad [Hillary] is doing, given the circumstances."  She'll be up by about 7.  A generic D with no baggage might be up double digits.

[heatcharger]

As the Economist said, "it's shocking how bad [Hillary] is doing, given the circumstances."  She'll be up by about 7.  A generic D with no baggage might be up double digits.

This will never exist because the right-wing hate machine will find something to hate. Even Joe Biden.

[Devout Centrist]

As the Economist said, "it's shocking how bad [Hillary] is doing, given the circumstances."  She'll be up by about 7.  A generic D with no baggage might be up double digits.

No. The country is so polarized politically that the base of either party will rally to their candidate no mater who's on the other ticket.

Biggest win you can get these days is about 10 points.

[Mehmentum]

As the Economist said, "it's shocking how bad [Hillary] is doing, given the circumstances."  She'll be up by about 7.  A generic D with no baggage might be up double digits.

A recent PPP poll that had Clinton up 5 had Obama up 9, so there's your answer.

[RINO Tom]

As the Economist said, "it's shocking how bad [Hillary] is doing, given the circumstances."  She'll be up by about 7.  A generic D with no baggage might be up double digits.

A recent PPP poll that had Clinton up 5 had Obama up 9, so there's your answer.

Obama has been President for 8 years, that hardly fits my profile.  The party's bases comprise NO more than 35% of the electorate.

[ProudModerate2]

I voted yesterday with "Clinton +7-9."
And the RCP average is inching closer and closer to it.
As of this afternoon (Aug 4), Hillary is at +5.8 (two-way).
The 4-way race has Clinton +5.0
To be continued ...

[Seriously?]

Atlas, of course, is overreacting in the spur of the moment as per usual.

As is Republican party leadership, Trump's own campaign staff, the entire media establishment, Obama, poll respondents...

The media yes. Obama for political reasons, yes.

Trump's own staff. Not so much.
The RNC. Not so much.
You are getting hysteria from the press here. The campaign appears to be working properly.

The polls are what they are out of the DNC. The convention bounce will recede, like they always do.

[President Johnson]

Madame Clinton leading by seven points.

[ProudModerate2]

I put it back in the Clinton 3-5 point range (not an option here) after the convention bounces wear off over the next week or so.
Fundamentally, all that is moving these polls is increased partisan intensity post-convention. It will bounce back to the status quo, like it always does.
Atlas, of course, is overreacting in the spur of the moment as per usual.

The RCP average closing-numbers for end-of-day Aug 4th shows :

Two-way race  = Clinton +6.8
Four-way race  = Clinton +6.3

Will our Mr Seriously "eat crow" with his prediction of Hillary +3 to +5 range ?
The thread time frame asks what the results will be on Aug 12 (exactly one week from today).
To be continued ....

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton +5

[ProudModerate2]

** UPDATE **

The RCP average closing-numbers for end-of-day Aug 8th shows :

Two-way race  = Clinton +7.9
Four-way race  = Clinton +7.6

The thread time frame asks what the results will be on Aug 12.
To be continued ....

[Wells]

The race right now is Clinton +7-8.

[Lachi]

Yay, I was right, but it really wasn't that hard to see where the polling trends were going to be fair.

[Dr. Arch]

The race right now is Clinton +7-8.

Yep, hit the nail on the head. I wonder how the second amendment comment will play out in the coming polls next week.