What % chance does Trump have of winning election?

[Likely Voter]

We are about to enter a new phase of the election with the conventions and on to the general. So after all the primaries and stuff for the last year, what chance do you think Trump has of winning?  


538 has it between 33% (nowcast) and 37% (polls plus). The nowcast is of course most erratic and the day the Quinni polls came out this week Trump jumped up to 46%, but quickly dropped as more state polls came out, notably the NBC/Marist polls. As for the betting sites, Betfair has him at 29%, CNN Prediction market has him at 33% and PredictIt has him at 35%. But he has been trending up since a week ago.

So are they over estimating or under-estimating his chances? Or about right?

[ProudModerate2]

I think they are about right.
Somewhere in the 35 to 40%.
I voted 35%.

[Senator Spark]

50%

[Fuzzy Bear]

30% and rising.

[psychprofessor]

Stuart Rothenberg
Stuart Rothenberg –  ‏@StuPolitics

After new Post/ABC and NBC/WSJ polls, this one reinforces the idea that race is Clinton +4 to +8. Her's to lose. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

25%

[Nyvin]

30%

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I voted 30% - I think he's at around 1 in 3. If everything stays in equilibrium from now until election day, TrumpMillerBarron Scumfluff McIdiotboy looses.  At a minimum, he needs Clinton to either screw up or be struck by a disaster beyond her control, while avoiding screwing up or getting nailed by Fortune himself.

I'd kick him down to 1 in 4 (25%), or worse, except that the economy is not looking healthy and I'm not confident it will hold out until after November before crashing. And a 2007-8 style crash will help him, even though he doesn't actually bring anything to the table.

[Maxwell]

15-20%. A real possibility but not likely.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

65-70%, about 2-in-3

[EliteLX]

20% tops.

Florida Ohio and Pennsylvania is going to require a lot, and he hasn't given it nearly enough yet.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Below 20%....about 0%. Kidding probably between 25% and 15%.

[IceSpear]

About 25%

[Ronnie]

5-10%

[ElectionsGuy]

25%

[Wells]

0%. He is not going to win.

[Nyvin]

https://www.facebook.com/Bipartisanism/videos/1075514232525584/

[LLR]

Between 25 and 30

[The Dowager Mod]

24%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

25%

^
I remain very pessimistic about him turning this around and reaching undecided voters.

[Hammy]

50% until we get clearer signals (somebody getting >50% on a consistent basis rather than not at all) in one direction or the other.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

As long as this is a close election (+/- 3pts), Clinton's superior data, field, and targeting will make sure she carries the swing states she needs to.

I give Trump 25% or less. 

[TDAS04]

20-25%.  Still fightingly high. 

[Lyin' Steve]

Depends to a decent extent how much of the Sanders support goes to third parties.
If Hillary can draw in 80-90% of his supporters, she should have a solid 8-10 point lead over Trump.
If a bunch of his supporters go to Johnson or Stein or stay home or some other form of protest voting (writing in Bernie) she may only have a 3-4 point lead over Trump which definitely leaves room for error.  One debate where Trump outsmarts her, an eminent possibility given his skill during the primaries, and she could be running even just like Obama 2012 and in need of a hand.
Keep a close eye on those third party numbers... when you see these polls that are like Trump 40, Hillary 44, Johnson 11, Stein 6, that's about 8-9% that should be Hillary's vote.
Of course the same goes for Trump, but it's not as big of an issue nor as easy for him to fix.

[Xing]

25-30%.