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February 25, 2021, 03:00:31 PM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
Election Archive
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (Read 66500 times)
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,698
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #350 on:
September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM »
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
Posts: 4,048
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #351 on:
September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM »
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #352 on:
September 11, 2016, 02:12:26 AM »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/10)
Clinton +1.4%
Clinton: 45.0% (+0.2)
Trump: 43.6% (-0.2)
Logged
Southern Delegate matthew27
matthew27
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,674
Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #353 on:
September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM »
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
Posts: 23,779
Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #354 on:
September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 AM »
Quote from: matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Logged
Lach
lok1999
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,291
Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #355 on:
September 11, 2016, 03:30:16 AM »
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
I'll probably bump her a little bit, but not by much, probably by around 1-2 percent
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
«
Reply #356 on:
September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 AM
Quote from: matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.
It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #357 on:
September 11, 2016, 05:36:04 AM »
Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.
The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,867
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #358 on:
September 11, 2016, 08:31:47 AM »
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 11, 2016, 05:36:04 AM
Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.
The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base
By that logic, "basket full of deplorables" was the best thing she possibly could've done.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 35,872
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #359 on:
September 11, 2016, 11:22:21 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 AM
Quote from: matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.
It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."
As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable. That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #360 on:
September 12, 2016, 02:11:53 AM »
«
Edited:
September 12, 2016, 02:13:44 AM
by
Seriously? »
Quote from: Joe Republic on September 11, 2016, 11:22:21 AM
Quote from: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 AM
Quote from: matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.
It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."
As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable. That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
«
Reply #361 on:
September 12, 2016, 02:13:10 AM »
«
Edited:
September 13, 2016, 02:10:46 AM
by
Seriously? »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/11)
Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.4% (-0.6)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.5)
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 35,872
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/11 - Clinton +0.3
«
Reply #362 on:
September 12, 2016, 10:09:38 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on September 12, 2016, 02:11:53 AM
Quote from: Joe Republic on September 11, 2016, 11:22:21 AM
Quote from: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 AM
Quote from: matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 AM
Quote from: Left on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: Spooky Mike on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 PM
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.
I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.
It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."
As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable. That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.
Um, okay. That was eighteen years ago. Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
Posts: 4,048
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/11 - Clinton +0.3
«
Reply #363 on:
September 12, 2016, 05:36:27 PM »
Old Formula
Trump 47% (+5)
Clinton 41% (-5)
New Formula
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 41% (-4)
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #364 on:
September 13, 2016, 02:13:24 AM »
«
Edited:
September 15, 2016, 02:15:47 AM
by
Seriously? »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/12)
Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7)
Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)
Huge jump for Trump. It bodes watching the other two tracking polls to see if this is a direct impact of Clinton's "medical incident"/the "basket of deplorables" comment or just some statistical noise.
Given the nature of how this particular poll is conducted, it could very well be the Clinton health scare that pushed such a radical change in one day. It's a panel of the same voters for the most part. About 70 people were added to the sample since Sunday.
Digging deeper into the poll, Trump's intensity was up by almost a point. As to the question of who would win, Trump jumped almost a point, while Hillary fell almost a point. Hillary still is the heavy favorite 52.2-43.3.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #365 on:
September 13, 2016, 04:46:28 AM »
Deplorables!
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #366 on:
September 13, 2016, 06:22:19 AM »
It is a largest bump in LA Times polling history. We'll probably get other polls, confirming or not this, but at least it follows my gut feeling
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #367 on:
September 13, 2016, 06:27:00 AM »
I wish there was a way I could put entire threads on ignore so I didnt have to look at this junk.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,483
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #368 on:
September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 AM »
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,801
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #369 on:
September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 AM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 AM
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.
He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.
The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
Logged
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,199
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #370 on:
September 13, 2016, 09:18:34 AM »
Quote from: afleitch on September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 AM
Quote from: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 AM
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.
He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.
The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,801
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #371 on:
September 13, 2016, 09:24:09 AM »
Quote from: Spicy Purrito on September 13, 2016, 09:18:34 AM
Quote from: afleitch on September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 AM
Quote from: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 AM
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.
He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.
The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?
It is tracking a sample of voters that isn't necessary an appropriate sample. No other tracker, even reuters is showing a Bush '04 level of support amongst Hispanics.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,867
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #372 on:
September 13, 2016, 11:25:04 AM »
Quote from: afleitch on September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 AM
Quote from: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 AM
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.
He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.
The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
Yeah, looking at the cross tabs, black voters are basically the only ones who've changed, and in an eerily similar way to a couple of weeks ago. This is just an odd consequence of methodology
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +4.7
«
Reply #373 on:
September 14, 2016, 02:15:23 AM »
«
Edited:
September 14, 2016, 03:20:21 AM
by
Seriously? »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13)
Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)
Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.
Logged
Arch
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,980
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
«
Reply #374 on:
September 14, 2016, 02:16:22 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on September 14, 2016, 02:15:23 AM
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13)
Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)
Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.
If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Logged
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