538 Model Megathread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Intresting, that all the models started converging (don't really understand why).

Probability that Trump wins,
30/08, now:

Polls-plus 26.9%
Polls-only 22.7%
Now-cast 24%

Polls-plus model was pretty stable. Trump gained just 3-4 pps over the last 2 weeks.
In Polls-only and Now-cast Trump gained 10 and 14 pps, respectively, over the last 2 weeks.

We should expect all three models converging as Election Day approaches.  Polls-only factors in how much polls can drift between now and 11/8, and polls-plus figures in factors like convention bounces (which we're now past) and possible changes in economic conditions (the time for which is running out).

I don't always understand, the reaction on particular poll.
After recent Yougov's poll that showed compared to week before

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the changes were:
Polls-plus 27.0% (+0.1)
Polls-only 22.6% (-0.1)
Now-cast 22.8% (-1.2)

Why did Trump's chances increase in Poll-Plus? Insignificantly by just 0.1, but still

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And after recent Trump +3 (+0.6) LA Times poll:
Polls-plus: 27.2% (+0.2)
Polls-only: 22.3% (-0.3)
Now-cast:  23.8% (+1.0)


Do they update their fundamentals for Polls-plus model as well, each time they add new polls? Or is it the results of noise causing by too few simulation?

[Nym90]

I've noticed sometimes the forecast updates without a new poll being inputted; I would assume this is a fundamentals and/or timeline adjustment (fewer days until the election thus less uncertainty).

[elcorazon]

I've noticed sometimes the forecast updates without a new poll being inputted; I would assume this is a fundamentals and/or timeline adjustment (fewer days until the election thus less uncertainty).

they also sometimes correct errors in their updates, so that could explain some of the minor little changes that seem odd.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And after recent Trump +3 (+0.6) LA Times poll:
Polls-plus: 27.2% (+0.2)
Polls-only: 22.3% (-0.3)
Now-cast:  23.8% (+1.0)


Do they update their fundamentals for Polls-plus model as well, each time they add new polls? Or is it the results of noise causing by too few simulation?

The polls-plus model is designed so that the fundamentals get less weight as the election gets closer, and the now-cast is just polls-only except it acts as if the election was today instead of ~70 days from now, and therefore makes more risky assumptions about the behavior of the electorate. In the last few days before the election, the three forecasts will be almost or entirely identical.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some thoughts about their model.


To those who still thinks LA Times is of no use.

Look at 538's model. Last two polls were expected [more or less] by their model: Monmouth didn't change it at all (just slightly), while Marquette was little bit better than expected. What did the magic? They DID LISTEN to those "junky" nationall polls. That's it.

I'm not kidding, just look at it http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#now

The expected margin (for yesterday) in WI was D+3.8

What did we get today? D+5 and D+3

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Polls-plus is up to 30%!!  Polls-only and Nowcast are 26 and 27, respectively.  The surge is real, and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump takes the lead soon!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The race certainly appears to have tightened a bit, but it's closer to a ripple than a surge.  Trump would need to actually lead in a good number of national and swing state polls to move above 50% in the 538 models.

[Xing]

Trump isn't going to take the lead unless he, you know, actually starts leading in the polls again.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump isn't going to take the lead unless he, you know, actually starts leading in the polls again.

[The Other Castro]

Polls-plus is up to 30%!!  Polls-only and Nowcast are 26 and 27, respectively.  The surge is real, and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump takes the lead soon!!

That's not how that works. That's not how any of this works.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I've noticed sometimes the forecast updates without a new poll being inputted; I would assume this is a fundamentals and/or timeline adjustment (fewer days until the election thus less uncertainty).

I know that their model pulls in the S&P closing price every evening, which is part of their fundamentals model.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some thoughts about their model.


To those who still thinks LA Times is of no use.

Look at 538's model. Last two polls were expected [more or less] by their model: Monmouth didn't change it at all (just slightly), while Marquette was little bit better than expected. What did the magic? They DID LISTEN to those "junky" nationall polls. That's it.

I'm not kidding, just look at it http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#now

The expected margin (for yesterday) in WI was D+3.8

What did we get today? D+5 and D+3

Nate Silver today

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[100% pro-life no matter what]

Polls-plus is thinking Romney+Iowa+ME-02 for Trump now (though his pickups, NC, FL, OH, NE-02, NV and NH are all pure tossups in its mind)

Nowcast might be the weirdest for Trump: Romney-North Carolina-NE-02+Iowa+ME-02

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

[Sorenroy]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

For the first time in a month.

[Wiz in Wis]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

For the first time in a month.

Some of that was the jobs report

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

For the first time in a month.

Some of that was the jobs report

Probably 0.5%

[elcorazon]

polls are tightening for sure. jobs report wasn't that bad. I'm nervous.

[Figueira]

ME-02 is now going for Trump on polls-only, while NE-02 is going for Clinton.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! )

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

Whether he has a clue or not, it's pretty obvious a lot of what comes out of 538 is just slightly more sophisticated clickbait.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! )

Wake up! According to the latest polls they are pretty much equally ~hated. Muahaha