538 Model Megathread
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85161 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #375 on: September 09, 2016, 02:51:12 PM »
Iowa back on the blue side... Clinton gaining momentum!
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Figueira
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« Reply #376 on: September 10, 2016, 02:08:00 PM »
NH is now a comfortable Clinton win, but mostly due to that stupid Google poll.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #377 on: September 11, 2016, 12:43:14 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 07, 2016, 12:48:31 PM
Nate Silver actually believes that Rhode Island will be a single digit race. Wow. He's really lost it.

"Muh close race"
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Gustaf
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« Reply #378 on: September 11, 2016, 10:06:10 AM »
The model now weights down the 50 state polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #379 on: September 11, 2016, 10:25:21 AM »
Interesting to see how the models react today. We've had a lot of polling, mostly good for Clinton but a couple of good ones for Trump in NH and NV. I think the models move towards Clinton

+5 Washington Post national
+1.4 LA Times national
+7 Ohio
+2 Florida
-2 Arizona
-2 Georgia
-1 Nevada
+1 New Hampshire
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #380 on: September 11, 2016, 10:44:41 AM »
Quote from: dspNY on September 11, 2016, 10:25:21 AM
Interesting to see how the models react today. We've had a lot of polling, mostly good for Clinton but a couple of good ones for Trump in NH and NV. I think the models move towards Clinton

+5 Washington Post national
+1.4 LA Times national
+7 Ohio
+2 Florida
-2 Arizona
-2 Georgia
-1 Nevada
+1 New Hampshire
Yeah... Swap OH and NH and they're pretty consistent with Clinton+5. NV is a little weird but I can take it...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #381 on: September 11, 2016, 11:44:08 AM »
IDK, Marist is an A pollster with D house effect. Might be good for Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #382 on: September 11, 2016, 12:16:11 PM »
The models barely moved.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #383 on: September 11, 2016, 12:16:34 PM »
Polls Plus- 68.5% -31.5% (Clinton-Trump)
Polls Only-- 70.0%-30.0% (Clinton-Trump)
Nowcast- 74.3%- 25.7% (Clinton-Trump)
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dspNY
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« Reply #384 on: September 11, 2016, 12:21:20 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 11, 2016, 12:16:34 PM
Polls Plus- 68.5% -31.5% (Clinton-Trump)
Polls Only-- 70.0%-30.0% (Clinton-Trump)
Nowcast- 74.3%- 25.7% (Clinton-Trump)

Not much of a change
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #385 on: September 13, 2016, 05:21:30 PM »
Florida's gone blue (red in 538) in polls-plus Cheesy

Heja Ipsos!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #386 on: September 13, 2016, 05:41:35 PM »
Some improvement for Trump by a few points...

Polls Plus---  66.5- 33.5 Clinton
Polls Only--- 68.2-31.8 Clinton
Nowcast---  70.2-29.8 Clinton
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #387 on: September 14, 2016, 09:15:10 AM »
Nate Silver, defending his model:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/776055514723708929

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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #388 on: September 14, 2016, 10:23:38 AM »
Ohio flips to Trump on polls-plus and nowcast.

Polls Plus: Romney+Iowa+Ohio+ME-02
Pols Only: Romney-North Carolina+Iowa+ME-02
Nowcast: Romney-North Carolina+Iowa+Ohio+ME-02
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #389 on: September 14, 2016, 12:38:53 PM »
Florida and Ohio flip to Trump on polls-plus, and North Carolina flips to Trump on polls only

Plus: Romney+Florida+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (260 EV)
Only: Romney+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (231 EV)
Now: Romney-NC+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (216 EV)
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jaichind
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« Reply #390 on: September 14, 2016, 03:53:11 PM »
Trump changes on poll-plus approaching levels at the peak of the RNC.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #391 on: September 14, 2016, 03:55:21 PM »
Now-cast:
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #392 on: September 14, 2016, 04:11:07 PM »
So the tipping point is NH? We have this in the bag Smiley
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #393 on: September 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM »
538 has Maine more likely to vote Republican than Virginia in all three models and ME-02 almost as likely in the nowcast to go for Trump as Arizona!
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AGA
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« Reply #394 on: September 14, 2016, 05:35:11 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM
538 has Maine more likely to vote Republican than Virginia in all three models and ME-02 almost as likely in the nowcast to go for Trump as Arizona!

Interesting. Trump has seen some favorable polling for him coming out of ME-02, but I sincerely doubt that he is as likely to win it as he is to win Arizona.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #395 on: September 15, 2016, 12:48:03 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 15, 2016, 12:45:13 PM
Trump now at 41.3% in the Now-cast, winning NV, IA, OH, FL, NC and ME-02.
And NH is next to swing Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #396 on: September 15, 2016, 03:20:02 PM »
An intresting article about a different models. I didn't know that states are more correlated in 538's model than in others. It explains a lot Smiley

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/upshot/as-clinton-trump-race-tightens-heres-how-forecast-models-differ.html
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #397 on: September 15, 2016, 03:22:00 PM »
Trump now up to 43.4 in the nowcast, and it still doesn't include the recent MI poll or the CO/others one.  Could Trump be ahead by the end of the day if the FOX national poll has him ahead??
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #398 on: September 15, 2016, 03:23:13 PM »
Quote from: Little Big Adorable on September 15, 2016, 03:20:02 PM
An intresting article about a different models. I didn't know that states are more correlated in 538's model than in others. It explains a lot Smiley

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/upshot/as-clinton-trump-race-tightens-heres-how-forecast-models-differ.html

Great article.  Thanks for posting.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #399 on: September 15, 2016, 03:24:36 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 15, 2016, 03:22:00 PM
Trump now up to 43.4 in the nowcast, and it still doesn't include the recent MI poll or the CO/others one.  Could Trump be ahead by the end of the day if the FOX national poll has him ahead??
I guess it should have at least be Trump +5. Or just some more polls, preferably from WI/PA/NH etc Roll Eyes
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