Rate Georgia

[Suburbia]

Some political analysts say that the southern state of Georgia is a potential purple state this year with the rise of Donald Trump and the African American and Latino demographics. Rate Georgia as of now.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/03/31/why-donald-trump-could-make-georgia-a-purple-state/

[Sir Mohamed]

As of now, lean R.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html?platform=hootsuite

RCP says tossup. I think it's lean R. She's still only getting around 20% of the white vote in polls, needs 30%. Maybe if more polls show Johnson playing spoiler.

[Nyvin]

Johnson won't be popular in Georgia.    That and there aren't enough swing voters in the state to warrant any real play for Georgia for the Democrats.

The margin will go down from 2012 (inevitable), but it won't be enough to win.

In 2024 I expect Georgia to become competitive.  

Either lean R (around 5%) or safe R (over 10%).

Most likely, Trump will get a 7-8% margin of victory, as Romney did. However, there is a possibility that he gets a 12-15% margin of victory whereas there is no possibility that he gets only a 2-5% margin of victory.

Regardless, Georgia is not a state that either candidate should target in this cycle.

No one is winning Georgia with a 15% margin....

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

50/50 PV: Safe R
D +3% PV: Lean R
D +5% PV: Tilt R
D +8% PV: Tossup
D +10% PV: Tilt D
D +15% PV: Safe D

[JMT]

I say tilt R, Clinton has Georgia within the single digits and could make it competitive if she invests resources. But I don't think she will, because she doesn't need to. She'll invest money in traditional swing states (FL, CO, NV, OH, VA) and also some Dem leaning ones (PA, WI, MI) and if she wins even just some of those she's the next President. So while GA is competitive now, I don't think either candidate invests time and money there, so Trump wins with high single digits (6-8% margin, something like that)

[This account no longer in use.]

Likely R, fool's gold for Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I voted Tilt R, because if the election was held today I'd expect something like a 50-48-2 Trump win.  But  it wouldn't surprise me at all to wake up on Nov. 9 and find out that Clinton won the state.

I live in Forsyth County, Georgia (one of the most Republican counties in the nation) and the support for Trump here seems to be...uneven is the best word, I guess.  Most of the people I know are staunch Republicans,  and while some of them will definitely vote for Trump, others are equally determined NOT to vote for him.  They're either looking at third parties, staying home, or in one case voting Clinton -- the first Democrat he'll ever have voted for.  OTOH, the Democrats I know are firmly (though with varying levels of enthuiasm) in the Clinton camp.

I expect this to have some downballot effects, but not enough to affect the Senate race.

[RaphaelDLG]

I wanted a "likely R" option

[Senator Spark]

Likely R

[Holmes]

Even though Clinton does have a shot, Georgia isn't "there" yet for Democrats (like Virginia was in 2008, or North Carolina is now). If it were any Republican other than Trump, it'd most likely be safe R (~7-8% margin of victory).

[Xing]

Likely R. It would take a wave to flip it.

[Heisenberg]

Likely R, fool's gold for Democrats.

Right, Trump will win Georgia. Yet for some reason, RCP lists it as a battleground. Then again, they also list New Hampshire as one, even though it's definately not.

[ProudModerate2]

At this time "Tilt R."

[ProudModerate2]

I would like to take this time to point-out something that trump supporters on this forum are constantly crying about ...

They love to ( ERRONEOUSLY ) point out that when we have Atlas polls, that the Dems or members who lean left on our forum, supposedly always vote toward some ridiculous "left-leaning" options.
That the results are not truthful, because of these "hacks."

Well as of right now, there is not a single vote saying that Georgia is Tilt D, Lean D or Safe D.
All 45 votes are in the "R" or Tossup columns.
So trumptards really need to find other stupid excuses, as to why they hate and cant trust our polls, because what they see "cant possibly be true."

[HillOfANight]

Surprising regarding the Asian #s

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/latino-voter-registration-surges-amid-trumps-rise/nrjsR/
http://news.wabe.org/post/ga-sees-leap-asian-american-latino-voter-registrations

Some 16,254 Latinos joined the state’s roll of active voters from October to April, an increase of nearly 20 percent, according to records maintained by the Secretary of State’s Office.

State registration data shows the number of active Asian voters rose 16.2 percent from October to April. The number of black voters rose 7.4 percent, while the number of white voters rose 7.3 percent.

A good increase, but hundreds of thousands of nonwhites need to register and turnout, if the white vote is only ~25% Dem.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's lean to likely R with Trump with a 6-8 point margin. 

As I live in the north Atlanta suburbs, I can see that my Republican friends and colleagues are not at all happy about Trump--but they'll vote for him and Johnny Isakson for the Senate race.   As you go out to the exurban and rural parts of Georgia, there is a significant pro-Trump sentiment.

Even though Georgia is getting more purple, it's not moving nearly as fast as Virginia.  There continues to be a large population migration into the state with a conservative lean.  It's a more disciplined population with sizable families--and they vote.

[tinman64]

Lean R. GA just isn't flexible enough for the Dems to win.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tossup to Tilt R at this point,

[HillOfANight]

It's lean to likely R with Trump with a 6-8 point margin. 

As I live in the north Atlanta suburbs, I can see that my Republican friends and colleagues are not at all happy about Trump--but they'll vote for him and Johnny Isakson for the Senate race.   As you go out to the exurban and rural parts of Georgia, there is a significant pro-Trump sentiment.

Even though Georgia is getting more purple, it's not moving nearly as fast as Virginia.  There continues to be a large population migration into the state with a conservative lean.  It's a more disciplined population with sizable families--and they vote.

What part of North Atlanta? I imagine Cherokee would still be solid Trump, but I can see Brookhaven/Dunwoody trending relatively strongly D (areas where Rubio excelled). It's been done before.

http://thegavoice.com/lgbt-ally-bennett-pulls-off-upset-in-georgia-house-race/

[Podgy the Bear]

It's lean to likely R with Trump with a 6-8 point margin. 

As I live in the north Atlanta suburbs, I can see that my Republican friends and colleagues are not at all happy about Trump--but they'll vote for him and Johnny Isakson for the Senate race.   As you go out to the exurban and rural parts of Georgia, there is a significant pro-Trump sentiment.

Even though Georgia is getting more purple, it's not moving nearly as fast as Virginia.  There continues to be a large population migration into the state with a conservative lean.  It's a more disciplined population with sizable families--and they vote.

What part of North Atlanta? I imagine Cherokee would still be solid Trump, but I can see Brookhaven/Dunwoody trending relatively strongly D (areas where Rubio excelled). It's been done before.

http://thegavoice.com/lgbt-ally-bennett-pulls-off-upset-in-georgia-house-race/

I would consider Cherokee, East Cobb, Forsyth, North Fulton, and North Gwinnett as north Atlanta suburbs.   They remain affluent and continue to deliver huge majorities to the Republicans in national and statewide elections--but perhaps less so in the future as the population diversifies.   Brookhaven (and Chamblee and Doraville) are really Atlanta.

[HillOfANight]

Even as part of Atlanta, those affluent areas are still Republican leaning and contribute large R vote totals. Wouldn't be shocked to see Clinton win Sandy Springs, Brookhaven, Dunwoody, maybe even Cobb.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/42322/112346/en/md_data.html?cid=5&
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/42338/112364/en/md_data.html?cid=5&

Just extrapolating here, let's assume Clinton does better in Metro ATL, while Trump maintains the rest of the state (white vote is maxed out here, no evidence he's doing better than 2012). Metro ATL was 54% of electorate in 2012, and Obama won 50.3%, so my math says that he won 39.8% of the rest of the state.

If he increases his margin in just Metro ATL to 55%, he's up to 48% (from 45.5% in 2012).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zac-mccrary/sweet-georgia-blue_b_3385459.html

[Nyvin]

Sooner or later the Atlanta metro will overwhelm the rest of the state....it's a matter of when, not if.    The white vote in the rest of the state is maxed out and almost all the real population growth is in the Atlanta area.   

2016 really is too soon though, but Republicans really should be planning on the inevitable Georgia flip at some point.   Those 16 electoral votes are really going hurt when they leave the GOP column.

[dspNY]

Tilt R. Clinton is itching to go into the state full-bore with the polls there only showing a narrow deficit of around 5

[Seriously?]

Lean Republican. It will end up in the Lean/Likely category at the end of the day, with Trump pulling off a 7-12 point win, typical for the R in a statewide election.