CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13

[dspNY]

Clinton 51, Sanders 38

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

https://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/31/new-poll-stanford-scholars-shows-age-divide-among-california-democrats-gop-unity-issues/

[Eraserhead]

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

That kind of screams junk poll.

The margin is believable though.

[LLR]

Better than that +2 stuff from a couple o' days ago.

[A Perez]

Released today (May 31st).
http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-clinton-13-over-sanders-harris-sanchez-lead
May 4-16.

In date comparison, the PPIC poll was conducted May 13-22 and SurveyUSA was conducted May 19-22

[Landslide Lyndon]

Seems to agree with the demographics. Benchmark has Clinton winning by 12.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Margin makes sense, but it's too old.

[A Perez]

The Governor of California just endorsed Hillary http://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/calif-gov-jerry-brown-endorses-hillary-clinton-ahead-of-golden-state-primary

[IceSpear]

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

Worthless

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

Worthless

Yep. Poll was only taken to keep Hillary happy. But it won't matter, she's going to lose the state 80-20.

[IceSpear]

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

Worthless

Yep. Poll was only taken to keep Hillary happy. But it won't matter, she's going to lose the state 80-20.

I think you're setting your sights a bit low there. Why not 90-10?

[dspNY]

Saw a tweet from Mark Murray at NBC that they will have a California poll out tomorrow (NBC/WSJ/Marist). Field and the LA Times are supposedly also surveying and will have final polls out in a few days. Monmouth put out a Clinton/Trump GE poll for Jersey but no primary poll

[dspNY]

They posted the entire poll and the crosstabs definitely look solid:

Whites: Hillary 46-42 (remember, there are more affluent whites in California and some of them might break her way. There is also a decent-sized Jewish population in CA and she's crushed him 2-1 with the Jewish vote)

Hispanics: Hillary 51-39 (this makes sense if younger Hispanics are breaking away from her while older Hispanics vote for her)

African-Americans: Hillary 71-9 (I think this is a little optimistic for her and she'll carry 3/4 of the African-American vote instead of an Alabama-type margin).

Asians: Hillary 56-33 (She's had a better organization with the Asian-American community here for a far longer period than Sanders. Younger Asians might be breaking for him but their parents and grandparents are almost certainly going for her, especially the grandparents)

18-29: Sanders 61-30 (Now you're thinking, shouldn't he be winning the California youth vote by more? Remember minorities comprise a majority of the youth vote in CA so his margins might not be as drastic as in other states where he won 75-80%)

30-44: Hillary 48-38 (Once again, minorities make up about half of this age group in California as well so it makes sense that she's winning narrowly here).

45-64: Hillary 57-36 (Very much in line with other states)

65+: Hillary 63-22 (Very much in line with other states)

Now the bit of good news for Sanders supporters:

They undersampled independents. 90% of the electorate in this poll is registered Dems. In 2008, 79% of the electorate were registered Dems while 21% were not. Adjust that to 80-20 and you get Clinton 48, Sanders 42, which is almost exactly what Field showed the last time

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/golden_state_poll_may_2016_results_tables_final.pdf#overlay-context=press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ANY POLL WHERE HILLARY IS WINNING AMONG WHITES AND ASIANS (BERNIE WON HI) IS A JUNK POLL!!!!

[Mr. Morden]

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).

Any breakdown by CD, just interested if Trump would somehow be denied one delagatd somewhere, not that it matters.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).

Any breakdown by CD, just interested if Trump would somehow be denied one delagatd somewhere, not that it matters.

The CD's are WTA, there's no 50% rule. So if Kasich wins some random LA district, that would cost TRUMP 3 delegates, not one.