CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:25:26 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CA-Dem (Stanford): Clinton +13  (Read 1372 times)
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 31, 2016, 06:19:53 AM »

Clinton 51, Sanders 38

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

https://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/31/new-poll-stanford-scholars-shows-age-divide-among-california-democrats-gop-unity-issues/
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2016, 06:28:48 AM »

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

That kind of screams junk poll.

The margin is believable though.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 06:29:08 AM »

Better than that +2 stuff from a couple o' days ago.
Logged
A Perez
Rookie
**
Posts: 231
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2016, 06:36:07 AM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 06:49:46 AM by A Perez »

Released today (May 31st).
http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-clinton-13-over-sanders-harris-sanchez-lead
May 4-16.

In date comparison, the PPIC poll was conducted May 13-22 and SurveyUSA was conducted May 19-22
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,622
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2016, 07:11:30 AM »

Seems to agree with the demographics. Benchmark has Clinton winning by 12.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2016, 08:08:24 AM »

Margin makes sense, but it's too old.
Logged
A Perez
Rookie
**
Posts: 231
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2016, 08:44:55 AM »

The Governor of California just endorsed Hillary http://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/calif-gov-jerry-brown-endorses-hillary-clinton-ahead-of-golden-state-primary
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2016, 08:45:57 AM »

Poll taken from May 4 to May 16

Worthless
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2016, 10:11:02 AM »


Yep. Poll was only taken to keep Hillary happy. But it won't matter, she's going to lose the state 80-20.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2016, 10:17:09 AM »


Yep. Poll was only taken to keep Hillary happy. But it won't matter, she's going to lose the state 80-20.

I think you're setting your sights a bit low there. Why not 90-10?
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2016, 04:05:09 PM »

Saw a tweet from Mark Murray at NBC that they will have a California poll out tomorrow (NBC/WSJ/Marist). Field and the LA Times are supposedly also surveying and will have final polls out in a few days. Monmouth put out a Clinton/Trump GE poll for Jersey but no primary poll
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2016, 08:32:06 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 08:35:03 PM by dspNY »

They posted the entire poll and the crosstabs definitely look solid:

Whites: Hillary 46-42 (remember, there are more affluent whites in California and some of them might break her way. There is also a decent-sized Jewish population in CA and she's crushed him 2-1 with the Jewish vote)

Hispanics: Hillary 51-39 (this makes sense if younger Hispanics are breaking away from her while older Hispanics vote for her)

African-Americans: Hillary 71-9 (I think this is a little optimistic for her and she'll carry 3/4 of the African-American vote instead of an Alabama-type margin).

Asians: Hillary 56-33 (She's had a better organization with the Asian-American community here for a far longer period than Sanders. Younger Asians might be breaking for him but their parents and grandparents are almost certainly going for her, especially the grandparents)

18-29: Sanders 61-30 (Now you're thinking, shouldn't he be winning the California youth vote by more? Remember minorities comprise a majority of the youth vote in CA so his margins might not be as drastic as in other states where he won 75-80%)

30-44: Hillary 48-38 (Once again, minorities make up about half of this age group in California as well so it makes sense that she's winning narrowly here).

45-64: Hillary 57-36 (Very much in line with other states)

65+: Hillary 63-22 (Very much in line with other states)

Now the bit of good news for Sanders supporters:

They undersampled independents. 90% of the electorate in this poll is registered Dems. In 2008, 79% of the electorate were registered Dems while 21% were not. Adjust that to 80-20 and you get Clinton 48, Sanders 42, which is almost exactly what Field showed the last time

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/golden_state_poll_may_2016_results_tables_final.pdf#overlay-context=press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2016, 09:05:40 PM »

ANY POLL WHERE HILLARY IS WINNING AMONG WHITES AND ASIANS (BERNIE WON HI) IS A JUNK POLL!!!!
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2016, 12:31:38 AM »

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2016, 12:49:00 AM »

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).

Any breakdown by CD, just interested if Trump would somehow be denied one delagatd somewhere, not that it matters.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2016, 12:54:20 AM »

They’ve also got Republican numbers (Gil-mentum):

Trump 66%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Gilmore 2%

Carson is leading among black Republicans (only 5 people in this poll).

Any breakdown by CD, just interested if Trump would somehow be denied one delagatd somewhere, not that it matters.

The CD's are WTA, there's no 50% rule. So if Kasich wins some random LA district, that would cost TRUMP 3 delegates, not one.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 13 queries.