How likely is a GOP contested convention?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think it's getting more and more likelier by the day now.

[Crumpets]

I think it'll be a CCINO. We should know a couple of weeks beforehand who the nominee will be, and it'll otherwise go down like any other convention, except with some extra rowdiness if Trump isn't that person. In other words, I think it will be decided on the first ballot. 

[dax00]

My absolute newest projection has Trump at 1236, so I voted for 50%.

[Mister Mets]

I'll go with 80%. Trump has a lot of enemies, willing to use as many procedural tricks as possible. Plus, he seems to be falling short of 1237, especially with the low margin for error and the Wisconsin polls.

Meanwhile Cruz's odds of catching up are pretty low.

[The Other Castro]

It's getting really hard for me to see Trump getting to 1237 even with an extra little boost from some uncommitted delegates. My odds are at 75% at least.

[Vosem]

Around 85% likelihood, with a 15% chance remaining of _trump getting the delegates he needs. There are 3 scenarios for a CCINO, which I agree is very likely; scenario 1 being _trump gets enough support from uncommitted delegates to be nominated on the first ballot; scenario 2 being Cruz forms an alliance with Kasich, probably making him VP, and is nominated on the first ballot; and scenario 3 being Cruz has enough secret supporters among the _trump ranks that he is nominated on the second or third ballot. If none of these things happen and we move to a contested convention, there'll be total chaos, though I maintain that Cruz is the likeliest person to win even in that scenario.