Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Matty]

will sanders get over 70 in king?

[Xing]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

I think so. If you do a real quick estimation, Sanders is getting 75% in the caucus, Obama got 56% in the general election in 2012. .75 * .56 = .42. And Mitt Romney got 41% in 2012.

Caucusgoers are totally unrepresentative of even Washington Democrats.  Watch the pointless May primary have drastically higher turnout and Sanders do quite a bit worse.  Also, a huge proportion of Sanders supporters will vote Clinton if she's the nominee over a third-party challenge.

Grays Harbor 2008: 55% Obama
Grays Harbor 2016: 73% Sanders

That area typifies the kind of area Sanders would outperform Obama -- economically devastated whites.

I agree that Clinton will easily win WA in November. But let's dispel with the fiction that WA Democratic primaries, with zero delegates at stake, are more representative of voters in WA than caucuses. Also, we're not seeing votes here, we're seeing state delegates, so it's not accurate to say that turnout will be higher in the primary.

[catographer]

A pattern in caucus states that Obama won in '08 such as Minnesota, Colorado, and Nebraska, is that Sanders improves over Obama in rural parts while Clinton improves in urban areas. Obama won Denver, Omaha and St. Paul by 60-70%. Sanders won them with over 50%. Now Clinton looks to improve a lot over Obama's 70%+ in King County (Seattle).

[cwt]

I agree that Clinton will easily win WA in November. But let's dispel with the fiction that WA Democratic primaries, with zero delegates at stake, are more representative of voters in WA than caucuses. Also, we're not seeing votes here, we're seeing state delegates, so it's not accurate to say that turnout will be higher in the primary.

Not only that, anyone can show up to the caucus, but you have to register as a Democrat to vote in the primary. Why would independents bother registering for a meaningless primary?

[Hnv1]

will sanders get over 70 in king?

Doubt it. How much will he need to get in King to break 80% statewide?

[Mr. Morden]

Long lines for Hawaii caucus:

https://twitter.com/Maui_DetroitGal/status/713852359571480576

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Video of one of those lines:

https://twitter.com/CivilBeat/status/713848514841747457

[Comrade Funk]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

[Gass3268]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

One can only hope. Got nothing against soccer moms and they are welcome to come on board, but labor needs to be at the front.

[Xing]

Well, so much for King being good for Clinton. She's losing it 69-30 now.

[Flake]

Seattle's coming in at 69% Bernie

[muon2]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

That's not going to happen, but even so, no. WA is a Democratic state through and through.

Gore beat Bush by 6% in WA while Nader got 4% in 2000.

Your point is? Maine was similarly close in 2000, and Gore didn't even win Vermont by double-digits.

It likely stays D, even with a third party from the left, unless the 2016 political demographics have moved substantially from 2000.

[RI]

Okanogan County 2008: 82%
Okanogan County 2016: 87%

His best county in the state so far.

Wahkiakum is his best county at 89.5%.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

More like McGovern imo. Over-optimistic college youth learn to lose the hard way.

People who were college students in 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004 say they were convinced that the Democratic candidate would win, and that they didn't know anyone who voted for the Republican, are shocked on election night, devolve into conspiracy theories, and eventually learn to accept that their candidate lost fair and square.

The college campus bubble is strong and has been around for 50 years. Young people no matter what decade they live in think the world revolves around them. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself. It's nothing new.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

King is now 69-30 Sanders with 12% in

[Xing]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

That's not going to happen, but even so, no. WA is a Democratic state through and through.

Gore beat Bush by 6% in WA while Nader got 4% in 2000.

Your point is? Maine was similarly close in 2000, and Gore didn't even win Vermont by double-digits.

It likely stays D, even with a third party from the left, unless the 2016 political demographics have moved substantially from 2000.

Oh, okay, I see what you're saying. Yeah, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't even be that close with a 3rd party challenger. WA has trended Democratic since 2000.

[Comrade Funk]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

More like McGovern imo. Over-optimistic college youth learn to lose the hard way.

People who were college students in 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004 say they were convinced that the Democratic candidate would win, and that they didn't know anyone who voted for the Republican, are shocked on election night, devolve into conspiracy theories, and eventually learn to accept that their candidate lost fair and square.

The college campus bubble is strong and has been around for 50 years. Young people no matter what decade they live in think the world revolves around them. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself. It's nothing new.

Except it's not just college students. He's winning older Millennials who came of age under constant war and the 2008 crash (in which Democratic neoliberal policy in the 90s helped cause).

[KingSweden]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

More like McGovern imo. Over-optimistic college youth learn to lose the hard way.

People who were college students in 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004 say they were convinced that the Democratic candidate would win, and that they didn't know anyone who voted for the Republican, are shocked on election night, devolve into conspiracy theories, and eventually learn to accept that their candidate lost fair and square.

The college campus bubble is strong and has been around for 50 years. Young people no matter what decade they live in think the world revolves around them. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself. It's nothing new.

One can only hope we learn this in the primary rather than the general...

[cwt]

Okanogan County 2008: 82%
Okanogan County 2016: 87%

His best county in the state so far.

Wahkiakum is his best county at 89.5%.

You're right. I'm looking at the results on The Guardian and the stupid little Bernie avatar was covering up Wahkiakum.

[Gass3268]

MSNBC calls Washington for Sanders.

AP/NYT does as well.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bernie could be the Goldwater of the left. He might not succeed now, but his message is showing that the youth want to return this party to the party of labor, not soccer moms.

More like McGovern imo. Over-optimistic college youth learn to lose the hard way.

People who were college students in 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004 say they were convinced that the Democratic candidate would win, and that they didn't know anyone who voted for the Republican, are shocked on election night, devolve into conspiracy theories, and eventually learn to accept that their candidate lost fair and square.

The college campus bubble is strong and has been around for 50 years. Young people no matter what decade they live in think the world revolves around them. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself. It's nothing new.

Weren't college students the most Republican demographic in 1988?

[Beet]

Soccer moms work too.

[Xing]

AP calls it for Sanders!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN calls Washington for Sanders

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like 73% of the vote is in in Alaska.  Do we know where these precincts are?  Neither CNN nor NYT seem to have regional breakdowns.

[Lief 🗽]

Soccer moms work too.

And, unlike Bernie's college student base, actually vote in midterm elections as well. Reorienting the party towards young people is stupid.