Mexico 2006

[ag]

With 76.46 precincts reporting the Lopez lead has shrunk again to 2.14%. It is now:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.76 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.07 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

So far, it is not so much Calderon gaining, but vote share moving from Lopez to Madrazo.

PAN is protesting that PRD representatives deliberately delay count in "calderonista" districts. PRD is massing its people around the IFE building and the district electoral councils in the Mexico City suburbs where the count is proceding. Going to be nasty.

Updated

[agcatter]

Those poor investors who trusted the preliminary voting results and thus didn't move their money out of Mexico.  Thought their investments were safe only now to realize that the Hugo clone is really going to be in charge......

Yipes.  Talk about taking a bath.

[ag]

He is not an "Hugo clone". If you want the "clone" line, he is an Alan Garcia clone. Not really good for business, but not Chavez.

[ag]

Anyway, the gap continues to shrink, but very slowly. Unless it is true that PRD managed to force delay in many calderonista districts, or unless the remaining precincts indeed tend to be larger, it is too slow for Calderon.

With 79.21% of precincts reporting, the gap has shrunk to 2.06%

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.71 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.65 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.1 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

[agcatter]

Whatever.  Would you want your investment portfolio lodged in a country with a redistribute the wealth type president heading the government?  Too late for these people to move their stocks out of the country - the Mexican stock market tanks big time in the morning.

[ag]

Anyway, the election is not yet over.

With 80.75% of precincts reporting the gap has shrunk to 1.99%!

Lopez Obrador 36.66%
Calderon 34.67%

[NewFederalist]

ag,
If the PRD wins what is your take on the border situation? Do you think enough gringos will think he is like Chavez or Castro to put a huge strain on relations? Is there any chance he will nationalize US based companies and sieze their assets?

[agcatter]

Ag,

I've enjoyed your analysis of the election returns.  Excellent.  Keep em coming.

[ag]

PAN's press-conference. They claim they are seating neat. According to them, as of two hours ago, in the 16 states where Lopez led, they've counted 80.21% of the protocols, but in their 16 states only 57.45% (of course, both would have grown since then). They claim they have copies of the protocols showing Calderon gets even more votes than in all the preliminary counts - he should get over 15 mln.

Now, if this happens, after Lopez has led the entire day, there will definitely be riots. God helps us!

[Sarnstrom]

Calderon must win the remaining precincts by atleast 5% to close the gap. That number has been increasing the whole time as more and more votes have come in yet the gap hasn't narrowed enough.

[ag]

ag,
If the PRD wins what is your take on the border situation? Do you think enough gringos will think he is like Chavez or Castro to put a huge strain on relations? Is there any chance he will nationalize US based companies and sieze their assets?

He won't nationalise anything of importance. He will tend to favor big Mexican business over the multinationals, so expect Carlos Slim buying up whatever he hasn't yet, but that's it. He will likely run big deficits, though.

No, he is not Chavez.

[NewFederalist]

Thanks!

[ag]

The shrinkage continues.

With 82.72% reporting it is now 1.86%

Lopez Obrador 36.58%
Calderon 34.72%

Updated

[© tweed]

The shrinkage continues.

With 82.46% reporting it is now 1.89%

Lopez Obrador 36.60%
Calderon 34.71%

two things

-I assume you're fluent or semi-fluent in Spanish?
-Is this all over the Mexican newswires?

[True Democrat]

99.67% reporting:

Obrador: 35.35%
Calderon: 35.84%

That's a lead of 0.49%, meaning it is impossible for Obrador to win.

[Sam Spade]

99.67% reporting:

Obrador: 35.35%
Calderon: 35.84%

That's a lead of 0.49%, meaning it is impossible for Obrador to win.

Correct.  Turns out the original guesstimate of 0.6% was not far off.  Still, I expect some electoral fireworks from the PRD over this one.  Give it time. 

[Colin]

A great chart of the percentages and vote percentages throughout the night.

[ag]

The reason for the pattern was that in Calderonista states PRD requested opening of every box. Though this was not allowed (the law specifies only opening boxes where protocols have irregularities), the discussion at every box  and the fact that more boxes were actually opened caused Calderonista areas to report late.

At some point, over 80% of the precincts in Obradorista, but only 57% of precincts in Calderonista states were counted. About that time, the gap started shrinking. When there were just 3.5% of precincts left (around 4.5 thousand), Guanajuato alone had nearly a thousand precincts left to report, and there were a halfdosen Calderonista states with between 200 and 500 precincts left. The largest Obradorista precinct group (a bit less than 300) was in Mexico City, but even there almost all of these came from a district that, though voting for Lopez Obrador, have a far above average performance by Calderon (it is the district in the northern part of the city that contains Lindavista, the only wealthy neighborhood anywhere around there). Otherwise, of all Obradorista areas only Mexico State had around 100 precincts left.  By now, it is almost exclusively hardcore PAN areas left to report.

Actually, the parties must have known all through. I caught on Televisa a part of the interview with the previous head of IFE, Jose Woldenberg (they guy who made the agency what it is), and he said that the parties had the protocols from the beginning, and by midday on Tuesday they must have done their sums. While things changed in the actual count (some boxes were opened, some copies of the protocols had errors, etc.), they all knew that the changes will go both ways and won't change the aggregate (hence, though Woldenberg didn't say this) the PRD continuous insistence on full recount (the only thing that can save them), and PAN's refusal to support it.  By the way, Woldenberg (who, before he became the head of IFE right before the 1997 midterm election, was a leftist intelectual/politician) said he does not believe there can be or should be a full recount, legally or practically.

Anyway, it is now 99.74% of the precincts reporting. The standing is:

Calderon 35.85%
Lopez Obrador 35.34%

The gap is 0.51% in favor of Calderon.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, the highest turnouts (68%) were in Mexico City, where Lopez got 58% (to Calderon's 27%) and in Tabasco, which gave Calderon the worst result (Lopez 56%, Calderon 3.6%). 

How the hell did that result in Tabasco happen, btw?

[MODU]

Thank goodness.  I did hear on the radio this morning though that Calderon was considering offering Obrador a position within his cabinet.  That would be an interesting arrangement.  Do you think he would accept such an offer?

[ag]

Actually, the highest turnouts (68%) were in Mexico City, where Lopez got 58% (to Calderon's 27%) and in Tabasco, which gave Calderon the worst result (Lopez 56%, Calderon 3.6%). 

How the hell did that result in Tabasco happen, btw?

Tabasco is the home state of both Lopez Obrador and Madrazo. The only time Calderon tried to campaign there before the election he was physically roughed up by the Lopez Obrador supporters (he basically had to run for his life).  Enough said.

As for the turnout in Tabasco, I actually suspect major ballot stuffing in Lopez Obrador's and Madrazo's favor - there were a lot of incorrectly filled protocols. When they opened the boxes, they found even more ballots, and, knowing what I know about Tabasco, I wouldn't be surprised if not all of these were put in by actual voters.

[ag]

Thank goodness.  I did hear on the radio this morning though that Calderon was considering offering Obrador a position within his cabinet.  That would be an interesting arrangement.  Do you think he would accept such an offer?

No, never.

Lopez is not even conceding. He will sue (he has 4 days from Sunday, once both the presidential and congressional results are finalized). He will also call massive demonstrations (he already has). He will try to get a full recount. Most likely he won't (though, who knows), but he will get a lot of particular boxes ordered recounted (and, to counteract, so will probably Calderon).  I have a feeling, the presidency will be decided, one wayor another, by the courts in August or by Congress in September.

[ag]

As of about 2 hour ago, the only precincts left to be counted were in Baja California, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Michoacan, Sonora, Queretaro and Yucatan. Of these 7 states Calderon won massively in 6, and Lopez Obrador won barely in 1 (Michoacan).  Looks like the gap will be exactly the 0.6% registered on the first count.

[ag]

Ok, let this be the penultimate report on this count.

With 99.94% reporting the result so far is:

Calderon 35.87%
Lopez Obrador 35.32%

The gap is 0.55% - very close to the 0.6% on Monday. In practical terms, if the result is unchanged, it is a slight shrinking of the margin from 257.5 thousand votes announced then to about 230 thousand.

[ag]

Still not finished. There are 6 districts (out of 300) that are still counting at least some booths. They are in (on in each city) Ciudad Juárez (Chihuahua), Guanajuato (Guanajuato), Morelia (Michoacan), San Juan del Río (Queretaro), Hermosillo y Nogales (both Sonora). All, of these, even the Michoacan capital Morelia, were one by solid margins by Calderon.

With 99.99% of precincts reporting the result is

Calderon 35.88%
Lopez Obrador 35.31%

The gap as grown to 0.57%, or just under 240 thousand votes.