Democratic Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @4pm ET?)

[BundouYMB]

Sometimes candidates I support win, sometimes they lose. When they're losing I try to keep my eyes open, understand why it's happening, and apply whatever lessons can be taken from it forwards to the next campaign. This is, by the way, what Clinton herself did in between this campaign and her 2008 campaign. Yet some people devote an incredible amount of effort to learning nothing, & actively try to shut out any knowledge about the actual situation so they can pretend they're not losing for a month during the campaign when they obviously are.

If jfern spent half the effort he spent trying to delude himself that Sanders isn't getting his ass kicked on understanding why Sanders is getting his ass kicked he'd be one of the most knowledgeable people about politics out there & might be able to contribute to getting candidates he likes actually elected in the future.

[Eraserhead]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary under 70!

Bernie seems to have improved a bit in the South from his ST results.

No he hasnt.

^^^

69.9% is an improvement on only two Super Tuesday states: Alabama (78%) and Georgia (71%). Arkansas and Tennessee were 66%, Texas at 65% and Virginia at 64%.


What an improvement!

Plus, Sanders is only getting 24% of the vote in Louisiana. That's lower than every other southern state except for Alabama.

Louisiana has more blacks percentage wise than any other state, except Mississippi, which hasn't voted yet. So 24% isn't bad for him when you compare to the southern states that already voted.

[IceSpear]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Obama did much better in KS than in NE too in 08. As for why, I have no idea.

[Shadows]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Nebraska has absentee ballot where Clinton killed it - Or some other reason, maybe I am wrong!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton will be giving her acceptance speech at Philadelphia and jfern will say that it's a good night for Bernie.

[Xing]

I'm impressed with Sanders' wins, particularly Kansas. Do the results tonight change the state of the race? Hardly. Is Sanders still facing incredibly long odds? Of course. Does that mean I can't feel happy about Sanders getting some wins?

[Panhandle Progressive]

According to nytimes:
Clinton is leading 51 to 45 in delegates awarded today.

[catographer]

According to LA Sec of State, Hillary is back over 70%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to nytimes:
Clinton is leading 51 to 45 in delegates awarded today.

Maine should make it a draw.

[Xing]

Interestingly, Clinton's margin in New Orleans almost exactly matches her margin in the state as a whole. I would expect her % to rise, though Sanders' probably will a bit as well.

[Shadows]

I am happy with 2/3 Wins, Huge victory in Kansas, best since Vermont, 35% Victory, Solid in Nebraska (Maybe could have done 60%, now it has increased to around 56%).

LA is a bit better than expected, increased to 24%, for a while I was very apprehensive of 15% Viability seeing the last few polls (Junk of not).

Undoubtedly Sanders has out-performed overall expectations, other than Hillaryhacks everyone will realise it. Maine will make it 3 out of 4 victories.

But delegate wise a big loss in LA will eat all those 3 victories & Sanders will continue to be 200 odd Delegates, Numbers considered, this does not help - Just maintains the status quo which IMO which continues to make Bernie's case hard rather than close the gap.

It remains a difficult situation & hope MS ends this Southern Nightmare.

Pretty clear Sanders needs to pull shock wins in MI,OH,IL, etc & pull close results in FL,NC, etc. He can't afford a big loss anymore. He has to get 45% odd in every state bar MS to have a realistic chance!

[Panhandle Progressive]

According to nytimes:
Clinton is leading 51 to 45 in delegates awarded today.

Maine should make it a draw.

By the middle of the month Hillary is gonna have a YYUUGGEE lead over Sanders in delegates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to nytimes:
Clinton is leading 51 to 45 in delegates awarded today.

Maine should make it a draw.

By the middle of the month Hillary is gonna have a YYUUGGEE lead over Sanders in delegates.

Of course, but that's not the point.

[IceSpear]

I am happy with 2/3 Wins, Huge victory in Kansas, best since Vermont, 35% Victory, Solid in Nebraska (Maybe could have done 60%, now it has increased to around 56%).

LA is a bit better than expected, increased to 24%, for a while I was very apprehensive of 15% Viability seeing the last few polls (Junk of not).

Undoubtedly Sanders has out-performed overall expectations, other than Hillaryhacks everyone will realise it. Maine will make it 3 out of 4 victories.

But delegate wise a big loss in LA will eat all those 3 victories & Sanders will continue to be 200 odd Delegates, Numbers considered, this does not help - Just maintains the status quo which IMO which continues to make Bernie's case hard rather than close the gap.

It remains a difficult situation & hope MS ends this Southern Nightmare.

Pretty clear Sanders needs to pull shock wins in MI,OH,IL, etc & pull close results in FL,NC, etc. He can't afford a big loss anymore. He has to get 45% odd in every state bar MS to have a realistic chance!

Pretty reasonable analysis.

[Dr. Arch]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Lancaster county has yet to report, and I suspect it'll swing big for Sanders to widen the margin.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, Bernie won another Parish, Cameron.

[Eraserhead]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Obama did much better in KS than in NE too in 08. As for why, I have no idea.

Yeah, but wasn't it one of Obama's many "home states"?

[Landslide Lyndon]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Obama did much better in KS than in NE too in 08. As for why, I have no idea.

Yeah, but wasn't it one of Obama's many "home states"?

I think Sebelius' endorsement had more to do with it.

[Smash255]

Sanders comes out of tonight up 13 deleates in Kansas, currently up 3 in Nebraska, though probably will be 5 once lancaster is added (7 is possible, but might be a stretch).  Clinton looks like 25-29 delegate lead in Louisiana. So she probably winds up with 9 or so more delegates tonight, tomorrow likely goes to Sanders by roughly the same, so this weekend could win up being a wash delegate wise, and if not something very close to it.

[Joe Republic]

Sanders is running out of states where he needs to run up the margins to eventually catch up.  Tell me, where exactly is his path to the nomination from here? 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is the rest of NE still not reporting?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why is the rest of NE still not reporting?

They wanted to take half as long as Kansas.

[Dr. Arch]

Lancaster has begun reporting in NE. Huge margins for Sanders.

[Boston Bread]

Sanders is running out of states where he needs to run up the margins to eventually catch up.  Tell me, where exactly is his path to the nomination from here? 

This is what Sander's path to the nomination looks like at this point (not that I think he'll come anywhere close):