Democratic Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @4pm ET?)

[Mr. Morden]

On the Democratic side, we have a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska today.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Kansas: caucuses run from 2-4pm ET
http://www.ksdp.org/caucus-2016/
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ks/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/kansas

Nebraska: caucus times vary by county, but the range is 11am to 9pm ET
http://nebraskacaucus2016.org/Caucus_Handbook-F.pdf
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ne/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/nebraska

Louisiana: primary polls close at 9pm ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/la/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/louisiana

I’m assuming that we’ll only have an exit poll for the primary in Louisiana, in which case the usual public service message applies:

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

[Tender Branson]

I’m assuming that we’ll only have an exit poll for the primary in Louisiana, in which case the usual public service message applies:

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

No exit polls today.

[Shadows]

Nebraska looks good so far as per ground reports, heard from many districts, Bernie winning 2/1 in many, some roughly same - It could change as voting has not started in caucus.

So far Nebraska looks positive & could give a win!

[RJEvans]

Nebraska looks good so far as per ground reports, heard from many districts, Bernie winning 2/1 in many, some roughly same - It could change as voting has not started in caucus.

So far Nebraska looks positive & could give a win!

If voting hasn't started how do you know Bernie is winning 2 to 1? You've developed reputation around here for making up data.

Anyway, I fully expect Bernie to win KS and NE by 20-30+ points. LA goes for Clinton by 40 points.

[Shadows]

Nebraska looks good so far as per ground reports, heard from many districts, Bernie winning 2/1 in many, some roughly same - It could change as voting has not started in caucus.

So far Nebraska looks positive & could give a win!

If voting hasn't started how do you know Bernie is winning 2 to 1? You've developed reputation around here for making up data.

Anyway, I fully expect Bernie to win KS and NE by 20-30+ points. LA goes for Clinton by 40 points.

Based on my ground reports of the number of supporters - I said it could be different. Bernie & hillary supporters have to sit in different rooms or different sides of the room- In many areas they have to bring extra chairs & you clearly get an idea when Bernie supporters are far out-numbering Hillary supporters.

And 30% is completely unrealistic & he didn't even win NH by that margin. I am expecting a 15% win, there are many districts with currently equal supporters.

And don't make this idiotic comment about making numbers, I don't make stuff!

[Mr. Morden]

Someone in Kearney, Nebraska posted this pic on Twitter, saying that it was the Sanders side of the room at their caucus:



No idea what the Clinton side looked like for comparison.

[Mr. Morden]

This story from a week ago said that early voting in Louisiana was “robust”:

http://theadvocate.com/news/15032922-98/more-than-twice-as-many-people-cast-early-ballots-in-louisianas-presidential-primary-than-did-four-y

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[Shadows]

I expect a 50-55% victory for Hillary in LA - Bernie's just given up on it & so has his supporters

[DINGO Joe]

The absentee totals are here

http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2016_0305_StatewideStats.pdf

A few jurisdictions have something else on the ballot, that's why there are some "others" for party registration.

I voted about 9:30AM maybe 15th on the sign in sheet.  White upper income uptown precinct that voted 50-47 for Obama and about 75-25 for John Bel

[Shadows]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton will trounce Sanders in Louisiana, especially around the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas. Sanders may do well upstate.

[Mehmentum]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

Where are you getting your info from?

[Tender Branson]

I assume Clinton wins LA by 71-27 or something.

Also, I predict turnout will be 250-300K for the GOP (up from 150K in 2008 and 180K in 2012).

Turnout for Dems should be 150-200K (down from 350K in 2008 and basically unchanged from 2012 when it was 150K).

[DINGO Joe]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

[Shadows]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

Yup - I am very surprised. Apparently a huge chunk is absentee & Clinton swept those by a huge margin.

Many districts with Big Bernie wins turned out to be much smaller wins with 52-55% odd for Bernie. I don't think this touches 60% for Bernie, if he wins it will be low 50's or mid's. But then only a few districts have voted, so who knows!

[RJEvans]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

Yup - I am very surprised. Apparently a huge chunk is absentee & Clinton swept those by a huge margin.

Many districts with Big Bernie wins turned out to be much smaller wins with 52-55% odd for Bernie. I don't think this touches 60% for Bernie, if he wins it will be low 50's or mid's. But then only a few districts have voted, so who knows!

You have to have sources! Frankly, I think you're lying given your past. I'll apologize if you have provide sources.

And yes, you can vote absentee in the NE Democratic caucus according to this.

http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/democrats-can-vote-in-nebraska-caucuses-via-absentee-ballot/article_f593d4f5-d0ac-5798-846e-af4b7c5ac0eb.html

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

Depends on the state and the party. Like in Maine, in the Democratic caucus you can vote absentee with few restrictions, but in the GOP caucus you can only vote absentee if you are in the military.

[DINGO Joe]

Clinton will trounce Sanders in Louisiana, especially around the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas. Sanders may do well upstate.

I would expect the D vote upstate to skew more heavily A-A (like 75%) so I wouldn't expect much for Sanders up there.  If he does well with anybody it'll be the college kids.

[Shadows]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

Yup - I am very surprised. Apparently a huge chunk is absentee & Clinton swept those by a huge margin.

Many districts with Big Bernie wins turned out to be much smaller wins with 52-55% odd for Bernie. I don't think this touches 60% for Bernie, if he wins it will be low 50's or mid's. But then only a few districts have voted, so who knows!

You have to have sources! Frankly, I think you're lying given your past. I'll apologize if you have provide sources.

And yes, you can vote absentee in the NE Democratic caucus according to this.

http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/democrats-can-vote-in-nebraska-caucuses-via-absentee-ballot/article_f593d4f5-d0ac-5798-846e-af4b7c5ac0eb.html

My past? I don't lie & don't make statements like that! I clearly said I was writing as per Ground Reports, if you are that dumb to not understand that & make such accusations, then you have a problem - I am not gonna sit down & take this BS

[Shadows]

Clinton is getting roughly 80-90% off the absentee ballots in many areas, more closer to 90%, it is unreal. We'll not have a huge win for Bernie, if he wins it. Also 100's of absentee ballots, I am surprised

[Alcon]

Shadows, can you actually link to your source, please?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton is getting roughly 80-90% off the absentee ballots in many areas, more closer to 90%, it is unreal. We'll not have a huge win for Bernie, if he wins it. Also 100's of absentee ballots, I am surprised

We know you're making stuff up, so unless you have proof, don't waste bandwidth

[Mr. Morden]

A bunch of people are posting Nebraska caucus numbers on Twitter, but of course there’s no way to verify any of this:

https://twitter.com/SexiTahko/status/706169999627423744

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https://twitter.com/maggfad/status/706169670609592320

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https://twitter.com/XteenyNMighty/status/706169435225202689

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[RJEvans]

Clinton is sweeping the absentee ballot in many Nebraska by a wide margin, so the difference even if Bernie wins is likely to be VERY narrow.

I think older people maybe tend to send more absentee ballots! This is good for her

You can vote absentee in a caucus?

Yup - I am very surprised. Apparently a huge chunk is absentee & Clinton swept those by a huge margin.

Many districts with Big Bernie wins turned out to be much smaller wins with 52-55% odd for Bernie. I don't think this touches 60% for Bernie, if he wins it will be low 50's or mid's. But then only a few districts have voted, so who knows!

You have to have sources! Frankly, I think you're lying given your past. I'll apologize if you have provide sources.

And yes, you can vote absentee in the NE Democratic caucus according to this.

http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/democrats-can-vote-in-nebraska-caucuses-via-absentee-ballot/article_f593d4f5-d0ac-5798-846e-af4b7c5ac0eb.html

My past? I don't lie & don't make statements like that! I clearly said I was writing as per Ground Reports, if you are that dumb to not understand that & make such accusations, then you have a problem - I am not gonna sit down & take this BS

I'm not going to litigate your credibility here. It's already in the gutter.

If you're basing your information on ground reports I'll like to know where? Omaha, Lincoln, Fremont, Hastings? Who is giving you this information, because I take it you can't be in every city at a given moment. Links to absentee results will be helpful. But I haven't found any.

I have no information about NE or KS, but given Obama's results in '08 and Bernie's results in CO and MN, I fully expect a 20-30 point victory for Bernie here. Can it be closer? Possibly. The demographics heavily favor Bernie but Hillary Clinton has not entirely given up on these states. I imagine they will be closer than Obama's blowout victories in '08.

[DINGO Joe]

Gotten three phone calls today encouraging me to go out and vote for specific Central Committee members which are three more than I can ever remember getting (of course I got them all after I voted today).  I did actually spend a little time vetting candidates last night after reading about the Travis County (TX) fiasco.