Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[Zanas]

MSNBC sticking to the idea that Bernie won Latinos.

How does that work mathematically?

Well, not that bad actually. You have to assume that Asian+Other, 8% of the electorate, went Clinton 50-48. Who knows who ends up in Other ? I know I would, refusing to identify myself as any race, but I don't know in reality who are these people. Anyway, that's not too foolish an assumption to make, is it ?

[Mehmentum]

If Bernie somehow can still come within 12-10 in SC he's far from finished.

Polling has him at about 20% behind.  So yeah, if he can close the gap by that much that's a good sign for him.

[Wells]

Summary of the RNC's statement: Hillary's in trouble because she didn't win all of the votes! She'll be easy to defeat in November because of Bernie Sanders!

[jaichind]

Wow.  So Churchill County ends in exact tie in terms of county delegates.  

[yourelection]

Hillary's win in Nevada was not that decisive, but CNN is making is sound so. I though that she was expected to win much higher?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

MSNBC sticking to the idea that Bernie won Latinos.

How does that work mathematically?

Well, not that bad actually. You have to assume that Asian+Other, 8% of the electorate, went Clinton 50-48. Who knows who ends up in Other ? I know I would, refusing to identify myself as any race, but I don't know in reality who are these people. Anyway, that's not too foolish an assumption to make, is it ?

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Turnout was 80000 people. In 2008 it was 120000.
Bernie's revolution doesn't seem to be going very well.

[jaichind]

Turnout was 80000 people. In 2008 it was 120000.
Bernie's revolution doesn't seem to be going very well.

But that does not bode well for Clinton either.  She now is winning less votes that she did in 2008 in both NH and NV.

[Zanas]

Turnout was 80000 people. In 2008 it was 120000.
Bernie's revolution doesn't seem to be going very well.

Well young turnout was actually up, and black turnout actually down, so not sure what you are saying. Sure, it didn't end up enough for him to win, but Clinton's firewall was underwhelming at best.

[Why]

I'm pretty far from a Sanders support, as I've said before, but the race is still far from over or noncompetitive now.

It is going to be competitive in the way a 7-5 7-6 6-4 tennis match is competitive and not competitive like a five set tennis match that finishes 10-8 in the fifth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hillary's win in Nevada was not that decisive, but CNN is making is sound so. I though that she was expected to win much higher?

Most polls were very tight. You even had people predicting a Sanders win around here.

[Zanas]

I'm pretty far from a Sanders support, as I've said before, but the race is still far from over or noncompetitive now.

It is going to be competitive in the way a 7-5 7-6 6-4 tennis match is competitive and not competitive like a five set tennis match that finishes 10-8 in the fifth.

A few Iowas and New Hampshires more and Bernie becomes the Mahut to Clinton's Isner

[Sorenroy]

Turnout was 80000 people. In 2008 it was 120000.
Bernie's revolution doesn't seem to be going very well.

Love to know where your numbers are coming from.

[/]

Wow.  So Churchill County ends in exact tie in terms of county delegates.  

Shucks.

How are ties colored on percentage maps?

Here's the current one (I just used the Atlas background color for the tied ones):

[yourelection]

Hillary's win in Nevada was not that decisive, but CNN is making is sound so. I though that she was expected to win much higher?

Most polls were very tight. You even had people predicting a Sanders win around here.

OK so its from the perspective that she was expected to do much worse accroding to the last poll. But the polls further back had her winning by large margins and that didn't happen.

It is interesting that CNN is not concentrating on that and making it look like she won easily.

[IceSpear]

Man, the remaining vote is coming in at a snail's pace. I want to see if it's 52-48 or 53-47!

[politicallefty]

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

I hope you don't believe that. If we don't have a huge landslide turnout among the black vote in November, a Republican will take the White House. And I don't need to tell you what will happen if Republicans control every lever of government from top to bottom.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

I hope you don't believe that. If we don't have a huge landslide turnout among the black vote in November, a Republican will take the White House. And I don't need to tell you what will happen if Republicans control every lever of government from top to bottom.

To be fair, they can easily counter with the fact that you need young voters too.

[/]

Man, the remaining vote is coming in at a snail's pace. I want to see if it's 52-48 or 53-47!

It will probably be 52-48. Sanders hasn't dropped below 47.5 all night and seems to consistently be at least at 47.7. He's at 47.8 now.

[Frodo]

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

I hope you don't believe that. If we don't have a huge landslide turnout among the black vote in November, a Republican will take the White House. And I don't need to tell you what will happen if Republicans control every lever of government from top to bottom.

I don't think he cares. 

[Torie]

So the entrance poll just got rectified once more with a bunch more respondents, making for a 1024 sample. Final demographic breakdown is :
Whites 59% : Sanders 49-47
Blacks 13% : Clinton 76-22
Latino 19% : Sanders 53-45
Asian 4% : subsample too small
Other 4% : subsample too small

By my calculations among gender, income or other near 50-50 splits, the final entrance poll scores are Clinton 50.8 - Sanders 46.3. Which, when you count away the uncommitted and look at the horse race, is actually 52.3-47.7, pretty exactly where the results are right now. So it seems that the delegate allocation didn't advantage either candidate.

So Bernie lost because his lead with whites was so anemic in NV. Bernie needs to do better than that outside his natural zone obviously. Bernie's strength with Hispanics is impressive, but it won't work without getting a bigger lead with whites.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

I hope you don't believe that. If we don't have a huge landslide turnout among the black vote in November, a Republican will take the White House. And I don't need to tell you what will happen if Republicans control every lever of government from top to bottom.

The great irony of your argument is that 8 years ago, the argument was that Obama couldn't win Hispanics in the primary, so he was going to do poorly with them in the general election. He did better with them than any previous Democratic Presidential nominee. Sorry, the same old failed attacks from 8 years ago (with some minor adjustment like crossing out Hispanics and writing in blacks) aren't going to work.

[IceSpear]

Man, the remaining vote is coming in at a snail's pace. I want to see if it's 52-48 or 53-47!

It will probably be 52-48. Sanders hasn't dropped below 47.5 all night and seems to consistently be at least at 47.7. He's at 47.8 now.

Looks like it's mainly Clark left though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, if Hillary narrowly won whites, and landslided blacks I'm sure it works out.

I hope you don't believe that. If we don't have a huge landslide turnout among the black vote in November, a Republican will take the White House. And I don't need to tell you what will happen if Republicans control every lever of government from top to bottom.

I don't think he cares. 

Why should I care about easily discredited arguments?

[Asian Nazi]

Sanders would do fine with blacks in the general election.  Clinton will do fine with young people in the general election.