Is Rubio legitely having a last minute surge in South Carolina or not?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

On the HuffPosts polling trend, Trump is dropping like a rock but Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Carson and Kasich are pretty stable as far as I know, only Overtime, ARG, Augusta Chronicle, Emerson and National Research actually show Rubio on the upswing, the only reason I could see Rubio's numbers going up is Trump's relatively bad debate performance last Saturday and Haley's endorsement of his campaign.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

He's surging to the top of the Establishment Lane.  He's not surging to a victory, although he might finish second.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

We'll find out tomorrow if Opinion Savvy, ARG,  and Overtime are correct.

[IceSpear]

Option 3: self fulfilling prophecy. There wasn't actually one organically, but one being manufactured by the media will end up creating an actual one among bandwagon jumpers.

Iowa redux, in other words.

[ElectionsGuy]

I have no clue and we will only know after the results come in. That was one of the hardest things to predict, will he surge past Cruz or not?

[Maxwell]

Option 3: self fulfilling prophecy. There wasn't actually one organically, but one being manufactured by the media will end up creating an actual one among bandwagon jumpers.

Iowa redux, in other words.

[IceSpear]

He'll probably come in second and the media will say he's the comeback kid or something.

Second? They've already spun him as a winner even if he finishes 3rd, because that would mean he beat Jeb's zombie campaign.

[Mehmentum]

I doubt it.  Its based entirely on a single poll.  Cruz has just as much claim to momentum with that NBC poll.

[IceSpear]

He'll probably come in second and the media will say he's the comeback kid or something.

Second? They've already spun him as a winner even if he finishes 3rd, because that would mean he beat Jeb's zombie campaign.

I have enough self-control to not say what I really think of the media's portrayal of Mr. Rubio's campaign. I'll just say it's been biased and leave the rest to the imagination.

If Romney had finished 3rd in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, he would have dropped out in disgrace. Rubio does the same and he's a great politician. John Kasich, on the other hand, rose from 1% in the polls to come in 2nd in NH. I hope the established politicians wise up.  

Most Rubio defenders/believers in media holiness talk about how it's not rigged/biased in favor of Rubio, it's just all about the "expectations game." Is that so? Because Rubio set the expectations himself with his 3-2-1 strategy. Yet the media will still spin 3-5-3 as a win! I think the "expectations game" may be a rigged one.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot with Rubio.  The primary process is supposed to weed out flawed candidates.  Yet when Rubio makes what should have been a fatal mistake, and was rejected by New Hampshire despite being hyped up as the establishment savior, their first instinct is to sweep it all under the rug and keep hyping him up.

Rubio revealed himself as incapable of surviving a campaign.  This will come back again in the general election.  I suppose I should be thankful that the Republicans seem determined to nominate this talking point machine despite all of the warning signs, but the blatant unfairness really irks me.

[Averroës Nix]

As usual, Rubio will be the story if he finishes with more than 15% of the vote and in at least third place. If I had to guess, I would say that there's been some genuine movement in his favor over the past week. He doesn't need it to be treated as the winner, though, especially if Jeb finishes in Gifted Hands territory.

[Classic Conservative]

No from what, I am hearing from people on the ground is Rubio doesn't have large amount of support groups, I think he'll get 15-19% of the vote, tbh

[PeteB]

He'll probably come in second and the media will say he's the comeback kid or something.

Second? They've already spun him as a winner even if he finishes 3rd, because that would mean he beat Jeb's zombie campaign.

I have enough self-control to not say what I really think of the media's portrayal of Mr. Rubio's campaign. I'll just say it's been biased and leave the rest to the imagination.

If Romney had finished 3rd in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, he would have dropped out in disgrace. Rubio does the same and he's considered a great politician. John Kasich, on the other hand, rose from 1% in the polls to come in 2nd in NH and hardly gets credit. I hope the established politicians wise up.  

I tend to agree. The only explanation I have is that the establishment considers Rubio "sexier" in the electability sense and (not unimportant) easier to "influence",if and once he is elected, than someone like Kasich.

[Penelope]

Yes. Marco will finish 2nd and Momma Media will come to the rescue, declaring him the "comeback kid." Then he'll place like 3rd in Nevada or something.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I don't know... I've been keeping an eye on Google Trends, and Cruz and Rubio are, and have been for the last week, tied in terms of general search interest. So if there's a surge for Rubio, it's certainly not the result of net-literate people paying more attention to him than to Cruz. For whatever that might be worth.

My gut is no: Rubio will do a tiny bit better than his polling numbers suggest, while Cruz will do noticeably better - and Trump will win with a good third of the vote.

[bigedlb]

On the HuffPosts polling trend, Trump is dropping like a rock but Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Carson and Kasich are pretty stable as far as I know, only Overtime, ARG, Augusta Chronicle, Emerson and National Research actually show Rubio on the upswing, the only reason I could see Rubio's numbers going up is Trump's relatively bad debate performance last Saturday and Haley's endorsement of his campaign.

I am looking at HP graph for SC And I see Trump flat, Carson drop, and Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, bush slight gains.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

On the HuffPosts polling trend, Trump is dropping like a rock but Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Carson and Kasich are pretty stable as far as I know, only Overtime, ARG, Augusta Chronicle, Emerson and National Research actually show Rubio on the upswing, the only reason I could see Rubio's numbers going up is Trump's relatively bad debate performance last Saturday and Haley's endorsement of his campaign.

I am looking at HP graph for SC And I see Trump flat, Carson drop, and Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, bush slight gains.

If you set the smoothing to "less smoothing" which takes an account of all polls, then Trump drops with everyone steady.

[Xing]

Eh, he's probably getting a small bump, though I still think Cruz takes second. If Rubio does significantly overperform his polls again, I wouldn't be surprised to see another "Obama knows exactly what he's doing" moment from him.