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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  49-state sweep. Holdout?
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Poll
Question: Between now and 2040 someone wins in a 49-state landslide. Which state is the lone holdout?
#1
California
 
#2
New York
 
#3
Utah
 
#4
Vermont
 
#5
West Virginia
 
#6
other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 85

Author Topic: 49-state sweep. Holdout?  (Read 4408 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2016, 09:04:53 pm »

For Democrats  Hawaii
For GOP Utah probably West Virginia in a Trump vs Clinton election
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JohnathanOHughes
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« Reply #26 on: April 17, 2016, 03:59:58 pm »

The Election of 2052.

Democratic Candidate: Incumbent, very popular, takes 49 states.

Republican Candidate: Cant beat a President who is telling the truth about a country that is doing great under him.

Incumbent wins every state except for Utah by 1 percent, which is where the Republican candidate comes from.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2016, 04:11:41 pm »

Hawaii for the Dems. Not sure about the GOP, but to change things up, maybe Idaho?

(I could see CA going for a GOP candidate were it a Vinnick type--not that said type necessarily exists in the real world.)
HI tends to trend strongly towards popular incuments, though.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #28 on: April 17, 2016, 05:38:54 pm »

I'd say Oklahoma or Wyoming, actually. Utah is slightly more elastic.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
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« Reply #29 on: April 18, 2016, 09:52:39 am »

Democratic holdout: Hawaii or Maryland
Republican holdout: Oklahoma or Wyoming
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Mallow
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« Reply #30 on: April 18, 2016, 11:31:59 am »

MD, VT, or MA for the Democrat
UT, OK, or AL for the Republican
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2016, 02:09:26 pm »

Oklahoma and Maryland
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nclib
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« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2016, 05:35:33 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 05:37:54 pm by nclib »

Unlikely Hawaii since it has a Republican incumbent bias, which is probably the scenario of a 49-state landslide.

If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.

Yes, though this scenario is much less likely to happen than a GOP re-election.

I'd say for the Dems: MD, NY, MA, RI, and for the GOP: OK, ID, UT (I doubt WV with its Dem history, particularly older voters who could be swing in a landslide.)
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #33 on: April 18, 2016, 11:06:15 pm »

Unlikely Hawaii since it has a Republican incumbent bias, which is probably the scenario of a 49-state landslide.

If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.

Yes, though this scenario is much less likely to happen than a GOP re-election.

I'd say for the Dems: MD, NY, MA, RI, and for the GOP: OK, ID, UT (I doubt WV with its Dem history, particularly older voters who could be swing in a landslide.)

Although, West Virginia could be the answer in a Trump 49-state loss.  The answer is clearly that it depends on why one party got 49 states in the first place.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #34 on: April 19, 2016, 12:50:33 pm »

Vermont, Hawaii, and Oklahoma as the holdouts.  Most of the other candidates are pretty close to some other states, and would more likely be a part of a small group of holdouts.  (If Utah is staying Republican, there's a good chance that Idaho is too, same for West Virginia and Kentucky).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #35 on: April 19, 2016, 12:55:17 pm »
« Edited: April 19, 2016, 12:57:15 pm by TN volunteer »

Clinton vs. Trump:

Democrats: New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii
Republicans: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama

Generic R vs generic D:

Democrats: California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts
Republicans: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #36 on: April 19, 2016, 01:55:51 pm »

Cruz vs. Clinton: Utah (R), Rhode Island (D)
Trump vs. Clinton: West Virginia (R), Hawaii (D)
Kasich vs. Clinton: Wyoming (R), Massachusetts (D)
Cruz vs. Sanders: Alabama (R), Vermont (D)
Trump vs. Sanders: Alabama (R), Vermont (D)
Kasich vs. Sanders: Idaho (R), Vermont (D)
Generic R vs. Generic D: Oklahoma (R), Rhode Island (D)

Now, these are not necessarily what would have the biggest margins, but just what would be the hardest to flip.
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mencken
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« Reply #37 on: April 23, 2016, 10:05:38 am »

2020: Clinton vs. Jones

Four years after liberal Republican Donald Trump loses to Clinton, the Republican Party faces a heated primary, in which true conservative Alex Jones defeats establishment RINO Louie Gohmert for the nomination.



President Hillary Clinton / Vice-President Julian Castro 68.2% 531
Radio Host Alex Jones / Former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle 29.8% 7
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #38 on: April 23, 2016, 10:14:15 am »

Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #39 on: April 23, 2016, 10:56:59 am »

Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.
Not Utah, which may trend thirty to forty points this cycle?
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #40 on: April 23, 2016, 11:50:13 am »
« Edited: April 23, 2016, 06:07:02 pm by Speaker Kent »

Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.
Not Utah, which may trend thirty to forty points this cycle?
Only if Tiny Hands and his fascist goons steal the nomination by threatening everyone else.

EDIT: BY "fascist goons", I mean the Trumpets that have been threatening non-supporters, NOT all Trump-supporters.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #41 on: April 23, 2016, 06:48:06 pm »

Maryland for democrat, utah or wyoming for republicans
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A Brave Old Fuzzy Bear for a Brave New Atlas
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« Reply #42 on: April 23, 2016, 08:33:44 pm »

Idaho (R)

Vermont (D)


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: April 24, 2016, 07:02:01 am »

Republican: Idaho -- barring a large Hispanic influx. It was LBJ's weakest win in 1964 while the states that went for Goldwater went so as either Goldwater's home state (Arizona) or statewide protest votes against the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Should Nebraska keep its system of voting by electoral districts, NE-03 (central and western Nebraska) stays R.

Miscegenation will ultimately do the current Republican Party in in the Deep South.

Democratic:  I like to make allusions to FDR. His 48-state landslide in 1936 was really bigger than the 49-state landslides of Nixon and Reagan... and I can imagine a Republican incumbent to say

"As goes Rhode Island... so goes Vermont".
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darthpi
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« Reply #44 on: May 06, 2016, 01:38:32 pm »

In a Democratic landslide: Oklahoma, along with the 3rd CD in Nebraska, for a total of 8 electoral votes. Oklahoma would flip before NE-3.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #45 on: May 18, 2016, 10:33:44 pm »

California.
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