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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  49-state sweep. Holdout?
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Poll
Question: Between now and 2040 someone wins in a 49-state landslide. Which state is the lone holdout?
#1
California
 
#2
New York
 
#3
Utah
 
#4
Vermont
 
#5
West Virginia
 
#6
other
 
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Total Voters: 85

Author Topic: 49-state sweep. Holdout?  (Read 4409 times)
mathstatman
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« on: February 18, 2016, 04:16:30 pm »
« edited: February 18, 2016, 04:25:38 pm by mathstatman »

Pick the lone holdout in a 49-state sweep between now and 2040. (DC goes Dem in any case).
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cxs018
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2016, 04:19:47 pm »

Republican landslide: Vermont
Democratic landslide: Utah
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2016, 04:34:15 pm »

For the Democratic holdout, it depends on what kind of candidate the Democrat is. If they're too left wing to be elected nationwide, Vermont would be the holdout. But if they're just a terrible candidate, I'd expect Rhode Island or Maryland.

For the Republican, I'm not sure, but I doubt it would be Utah or West Virginia. Maybe Alabama.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2016, 04:39:46 pm »

Utah or Wyoming - Republican
Actually think a state like New York or Maryland for Democrats, since black voters and urban voters are the least elastic.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2016, 06:41:38 pm »

Probably something like Maryland for the Democrats, and Utah, Wyoming, or Nebraska for the Republicans.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2016, 06:48:59 pm »

Utah or Wyoming for Republicans. I think that Hawaii is a solid choice for the Dems.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2016, 06:53:30 pm »

So far out of 10 votes, 4 (myself included) voted VT and one voted WV. Presumably the VT voters see VT as a lone Dem holdout, and WV as a lone GOP holdout. Ironic, considering VT had gone D only once going into 1992, and WV was one of only 4 states to go D in both 1980 and 1988.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2016, 07:48:38 pm »

Out of these, NY.

Vermont has a very homogeneous electorate, but its status as a safe D state in presidential elections goes back to only 2004 or so. Unless the Democratic candidate was from Vermont, the state would probably swing to the Republicans in a 49-state sweep. I personally believe it'd be more likely to be Hawaii, Rhode Island, Maryland, or Massachusetts.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2016, 08:02:59 pm »

Oklahoma in a Democratic landslide and Massachusetts in a Republican landslide.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2016, 02:08:43 pm »

I'm thinking Hawaii for republicans and Oklahoma for democrats, maybe Wyoming.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2016, 02:35:38 pm »

I think with these you almost have to pick a state with a long-standing loyalty to that party.  There's no way in hell WV is the last GOP holdout even if it was solidly behind McCain and Romney (or should we say against Obama), and there's no way VT is one of the last Democratic ones.  I think a state like UT is probably the best choice for the GOP (voted solidly for Reagan and Romney almost 30 years apart ... It's a very Republican state), and MD or MA are good for the Dems.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2016, 03:36:48 pm »
« Edited: February 24, 2016, 03:39:17 pm by Virginia »

I think with these you almost have to pick a state with a long-standing loyalty to that party.  There's no way in hell WV is the last GOP holdout even if it was solidly behind McCain and Romney (or should we say against Obama), and there's no way VT is one of the last Democratic ones.  I think a state like UT is probably the best choice for the GOP (voted solidly for Reagan and Romney almost 30 years apart ... It's a very Republican state), and MD or MA are good for the Dems.

That's a great point. MD/MA seem like excellent candidates at this point in time, though without the partisan history, I'd also think NY/CA fit in too (for dems)

However, historically the only region with electoral votes that couldn't be flipped in a landslide is DC (so not a state). Other than that, MD/MA both fell to GOP landslides at one point or another.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2016, 03:44:47 pm »

Vermont and Alabama
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2016, 06:53:03 pm »

If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.
If it's a GOP incumbent doing the blowing out, New York would be the holdout.

In a Democrat landslide, Oklahoma would be the holdout (unless the Republican is a Mormon, in which case it'd be Utah).
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youngohioan216
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2016, 01:04:50 am »

Vermont and Utah
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Coolface's deceased great-granduncle
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2016, 05:34:19 pm »

Maryland is getting increasingly Democratic each cycle, while already being a safe state, so I'd risk this answer.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2016, 05:37:54 pm »

In a Clinton vs Trump race? New Hampshire/Hawaii and Wyoming/West Virginia, probably.

Generic R vs generic D? Hawaii and Utah, probably.
Why would in a 49 state sweep for Trump, would Clinton win NH over states like New York, Vermont,California,RI ect.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2016, 05:44:34 pm »

In a Clinton vs Trump race? New Hampshire/Hawaii and Wyoming/West Virginia, probably.

Generic R vs generic D? Hawaii and Utah, probably.
Why would in a 49 state sweep for Trump, would Clinton win NH over states like New York, Vermont,California,RI ect.

Because that's what TN Vol wants to be true.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2016, 03:35:32 pm »

Democratic holdout: Hawaii

Republican holdout: Oklahoma
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2016, 04:49:09 pm »

It could conceivably be quite a few states, as there are many different ways a landslide could occur, with quite different coalitions.

I could see Hawaii being the Democratic holdout because its distinctiveness could insulate it from a national wave, but I could also see it voting comfortably for a Republican incumbent (as it did in 1972 and 1984).

I could see Utah being the Republican holdout because of its consistent status as the most Republican state. But it did go comfortably for LBJ in the last big Democratic landslide (albeit over 50 years ago). A nasty, relatively irreligious candidate (like... Trump) could lose Utah before he lost some other states.

Maryland and Alabama are plausible holdouts for their respective parties in polarised elections where the winning party just runs up the score a lot with their traditional voters without really managing to break through in the other party's bases. 
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2016, 04:37:45 am »

Republican landslide: Vermont
Democratic landslide: Utah
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2016, 01:13:23 pm »

I'd voted Utah but seeing as how this election is playing out, West Virginia is a distinct possibility this year.
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P123
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2016, 05:20:08 am »

Democrats=California (minorities + bay area liberal whites make it almost impossible to flip) and Vermont. Either one of these two.
Republicans=Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Hawaii would be more likely to flip versus California or Vermont, just look at 2004 (I know it was a re-election year, but still).

Large chance Utah flips this year or votes third if/when Trump is the nominee.
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P123
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2016, 05:34:21 am »

I'd voted Utah but seeing as how this election is playing out, West Virginia is a distinct possibility this year.

I would agree with this. Personally I would go with Oklahoma though. Alabama/Arkansas/Tennessee are possibilities aswell. If Trumps the nominee large chance Utah votes Democrat, and if theirs a third party challenge then they would vote for that challenge.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2016, 12:15:33 pm »

Hawaii for the Dems. Not sure about the GOP, but to change things up, maybe Idaho?

(I could see CA going for a GOP candidate were it a Vinnick type--not that said type necessarily exists in the real world.)
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