PPP: Clinton leads 10 of 12 Super Tuesday and beyond states

[Ebsy]

Castro, I do believe you are going to have a very frustrating March.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So Sanders is in this for the long haul. If he keeps performing like this he'll keep it close through the end of April, so he needs to shift into high gear.



This will be fun

[The Other Castro]

Castro, I do believe you are going to have a very frustrating March.

If that's your only response, I can definitely say the same for you.

[DrScholl]

Once again, the delegate math matters. Getting blown out in multiple states is not good for gaining delegates. Vermont is his only blowout opportunity and that doesn't really count much for spin since it's his home state. He needs some big wins on Super Tuesday other than Vermont.

[indysaff]

High undecided, though.

[Maxwell]

Because the Democrats are universally proportional, Bernie can stay in for a long time even if he's only getting 30-35% in some of these big states.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Once again, the delegate math matters. Getting blown out in multiple states is not good for gaining delegates. Vermont is his only blowout opportunity and that doesn't really count much for spin since it's his home state. He needs some big wins on Super Tuesday other than Vermont.

Indeed. Obama managed to pass Clinton not because he racked up more wins but because he crushed her by 2 to 1 or even 3 to 1 margins in many states, mainly caucus ones.
This year even if Sanders carries these states it's doubtful that he will run up the score since Clinton learned her lesson and has heavily invested there.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Clinton posts great numbers, is ahead by 40+ points yet "those are good numbers for Sanders!" Berniebro logic.

[Maxwell]

Fascinating numbers for Sanders in the crosstabs - he actually seems to do better with moderates than he does with liberals in a lot of states (particularly Oklahoma).

Alabama (Clinton +28)
Very Liberal: Clinton +38
Moderate:  Clinton +17

Arkansas (Clinton +25)
Very Liberal: Clinton +39
Moderate: Clinton +24

Georgia (Clinton +34)
Very Liberal: Clinton +35
Moderate: Clinton +30

Louisiana (Clinton +31)
Very Liberal: Clinton +59 (WOW)
Moderate: Clinton +15 (WOOOOW)

Massachussets (Sanders +7)
Very Liberal: Sanders +9
Somewhat Liberal: Sanders +3
Moderate: Sanders +10

Michigan (Clinton +10)
Very Liberal: Clinton +6
Moderate: Clinton +12 (A rare exception)

Mississippi (Clinton +34)
Very Liberal: Clinton +51
Moderate: Clinton +14

Oklahoma (Clinton +2)
Very Liberal: Clinton +13
Moderate: Clinton +2
Somewhat Conservative (14% of the primary electorate): SANDERS +19

Tennessee (Clinton +26)
Very Liberal: Clinton +48
Moderate: Clinton +21

Texas (Clinton +23)
Very Liberal: Clinton +40
Somewhat Liberal: Clinton +9
Moderate: Clinton +19

[Boston Bread]

PPP has done some great work here.
Bernie targeting OK seems to have been the right idea.
The Dixiecrats who refused to vote for a black man and preferred some random pro-life activist instead are feeling the Bern this time around. (Bernie winning very conservative democrats by a 54 point margin)

[Sorenroy]

Commissioned by American Family Voices - chairman Mike Lux - 1992 Clinton campaign staff and transition team.  Performed by Hillary-sabre-rattlers PPP.  And let's go ahead and forget about MN and CO. 

Yeah...

God you are one of the worst on this forum...

Anyway, here are the favorabilities by state:

Candidate — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)

Alabama
Clinton — 70-17 (+53)
Sanders — 55-26 (+29)

Arkansas
Clinton — 72-19 (+53)
Sanders — 56-25 (+31)

Georgia
Clinton — 73-13 (+60)
Sanders — 55-23 (+32)

Massachusetts
Sanders — 75-14 (+61)
Clinton — 60-29 (+31)

Michigan
Sanders — 68-18 (+50)
Clinton — 66-25 (+41)

Mississippi
Clinton — 70-14 (+56)
Sanders — 44-34 (+10)

Oklahoma
Sanders — 61-22 (+39)
Clinton — 59-31 (+28)

Tennessee
Clinton — 71-17 (+54)
Sanders — 61-28 (+33)

Texas
Clinton — 70-17 (+53)
Sanders — 57-28 (+29)

Virginia
Clinton — 67-20 (+47)
Sanders — 58-26 (+32)

Vermont
Sanders — 95-3 (+92)
Clinton — 36-54 (-18)!
 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obviously, Sanders needs to improve on these numbers, but they're not that bad for him. If he is winning in MA, and could conceivably win OK, he'll survive Super Tuesday. Those MI numbers also don't look as bad for him as I thought they would. He almost certainly needs to do better than a 20+ point-loss in TX and VA, though.

PPP has been very nice to Clinton, and they will tighten as they have everywhere else leading up to voting day when the attention shifts.  

They really haven't.

IA: PPP Clinton by 8 (tie)
NH: PPP Clinton by 3 (at the time Sanders lead the average by 10)
SC: Well above the avg in Nov (C+54) and still showing an above poll avg lead

Don't let facts get in the way, though.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Just in case people are confused by the titling of these numbers, 9 states polled are from Super Tuesday, 1 is from March 5th, and 2 are from March 8th. Some glaring omissions from this list (because caucuses are trickier to poll) are the 5 caucus states that Sanders is generally considered very competitive in. Without context, it seems like Clinton is sweeping every states, but factoring in the caucuses you have a pretty even split between Clinton and Sanders. If Sanders were to make up the 2 point deficit in Oklahoma (not a tall task) and carry the caucuses as well as the states he's currently leading (Vermont and Massachusetts), these early March states would split with Clinton winning 9 states and Sanders winning 8 states (not factoring in Samoa or Dems Abroad).
Super Tuesday (3/1):
Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado (Caucus)----State not polled by PPP
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota (Caucus)----State not polled by PPP
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
*American Samoa

3/5:
Kansas (Caucus) ----State not polled by PPP
Nebraska (Caucus) -----State not polled by PPP
Louisiana
Maine (Caucus) -----State not polled by PPP

3/8:
Michigan
Mississippi
*Democrats Abroad

Sounds like inevitability for Queen Hillary to me!

[Gass3268]

I think there might be an opening for Sanders in Michigan. Especially with it being an open primary.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Commissioned by American Family Voices - chairman Mike Lux - 1992 Clinton campaign staff and transition team.  Performed by Hillary-sabre-rattlers PPP.  And let's go ahead and forget about MN and CO.  

Yeah...

God you are one of the worst on this forum...

Anyway, here are the favorabilities by state:

Candidate — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)

Alabama
Clinton — 70-17 (+53)
Sanders — 55-26 (+29)

Arkansas
Clinton — 72-19 (+53)
Sanders — 56-25 (+31)

Georgia
Clinton — 73-13 (+60)
Sanders — 55-23 (+32)

Massachusetts
Sanders — 75-14 (+61)
Clinton — 60-29 (+31)

Michigan
Sanders — 68-18 (+50)
Clinton — 66-25 (+41)

Mississippi
Clinton — 70-14 (+56)
Sanders — 44-34 (+10)

Oklahoma
Sanders — 61-22 (+39)
Clinton — 59-31 (+28)

Tennessee
Clinton — 71-17 (+54)
Sanders — 61-28 (+33)

Texas
Clinton — 70-17 (+53)
Sanders — 57-28 (+29)

Virginia
Clinton — 67-20 (+47)
Sanders — 58-26 (+32)

Vermont
Sanders — 95-3 (+92)
Clinton — 36-54 (-18)!
 

You are naïve to think Clinton does not have a machine behind her.  And it's apparently fine for Hillbots to say last week's poll in NV (tied) had some big anti-Clinton thing behind it because it was a conservative magazine that commissioned it, but when a former Clinton aid commissions a poll I can't raise an eyebrow without having some teenager from NC whine about it?  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think there might be an opening for Sanders in Michigan. Especially with it being an open primary.

There definitely is an opening there for him.  He'd be wise to make a play for it.  College towns and upstate will support him. 

[Sorenroy]

Here is the map of the results, colors are normal.

This shows the size of the lead. >30% is a 0-4 point lead, >40% is a 5-9 point lead, >50% is a 10-14 lead etc. until >90%, which is a 30 point or greater lead.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Thank goodness for the South.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I didn't realize how unrepresentative Super Tuesday States were this time around: it's basically the Confederacy!

The US primary system really is a joke.

[Gass3268]

I didn't realize how unrepresentative Super Tuesday States were this time around: it's basically the Confederacy!

The US primary system really is a joke.

Yup, its just as bad as how white the first two states were. They really need to make some changes.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I didn't realize how unrepresentative Super Tuesday States were this time around: it's basically the Confederacy!

The US primary system really is a joke.

Yup, its just as bad as how white the first two states were. They really need to make some changes.

States need to coordinate something because it is a mess.  I'm not saying they all have to be on the same day, but maybe limit it to 5-6 days with at least something mildly representative.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really have hard time believing Sanders is winning Ma. But, Clinton is heavily invested in Colorado, and she will be in GE

[emailking]

Why is it thought that Sanders will win the caucuses? Just because Clinton did terrible in caucuses in '08? Or is it something about those states? I mean he did lose, or at best draw, the only caucus we've had so far.

[Mehmentum]

With these margins, the super tuesday states would give something close to these delegate totals:
Clinton: 483 delegates (+131)
Sanders: 352 delegates

Even if Sanders can win CO and MN in 60% landslides, then he'd be 97 delegates behind Clinton for the day.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

With these margins, the super tuesday states would give something close to these delegate totals:
Clinton: 483 delegates (+131)
Sanders: 352 delegates

Even if Sanders can win CO and MN in 60% landslides, then he'd be 97 delegates behind Clinton for the day.

Clinton will not be winning by these margins.