Who will drop out after Iowa?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think Martin O'Malley will serenade us with his beautiful sad music as he bids the race farewell then Jim Gilmore will remind us of how he was Governor of 9/11 and run out the building, Huckabee and Santorum will blame the gays and Muslims for their loss and endorse Trump, Fiorina will blame Clinton and foam at the mouth, Carson will fall asleep at the podium giving his concession speech.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are imminent, with Gilmore and Carson possible (Carson is doing badly in New Hampshire). Iowa also seems to be the only place where O'Malley has any momentum, so there's a decent chance there too. Voted for those five.

[Mike Thick]

Huck and Santo are the two who are arguably relying most on Iowa, but the Frothster has shown he can stick around to bother us for a long time with little to no money, and Mikey could stick it out to SC just for kicks.

Randy Boy has previously said that he has to succeed in both Iowa and New Hampshire to win, so it's possible but a bit unlikely that he drops out. If Cruz's collapse continues or speeds up, he could place as low as third. If he severely underperforms, he might mercy-kill Cruz 2016, but (again) it's unlikely, and he'll probably stick around for a while. Carson also needs success in Iowa to win, but I don't know if he'll know when to quit.

There's another tier of candidates that have (largely) staked their success in New Hampshire, consisting of Bush, Kasich, Christie, Gilmore, Fiorina, and to a lesser extent Rubio. Of those, Bush, Christie, and Rubio are the only ones I could see sticking around until SC or possibly even later. Gilmore has already shown us that he can run a campaign [sic] while spending nothing, so he might stay in. These guys are not dropping out after Iowa, unless something really strange happens. For Fiorina, see Ben Carson.

Finally, there are the top-tier candidates. I've already gone through a lot of them: Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and to a lesser extent Carson. These are people that will probably stay in for a long time, through Super Tuesday and beyond. One of them will probably be the nominee.

But that's just my opinion.

[Volrath50]

Santorum and Huckabee were Iowa or bust, so, barring a miracle or them being delusional, they should drop out after Iowa. Carson might (and he should), but his campaign seems more to be a direct mail scam that somehow accidentally became a presisdential campaign, so I would bet, say 65-35, that Carson stays in.

O'Malley might drop out if he gets, like 0% due to the viability threshold. OTOH, O'Malley hasn't really had a purpose for several months now, so who knows.

[This account no longer in use.]

Just the fact that there are votes for Hillary and Bernie shows that we have far too many hacks in this board.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Just the fact that there are votes for Hillary and Bernie shows that we have far too many hacks in this board.

Says the guy who wasn't born when major world events were going on

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just the fact that there are votes for Hillary and Bernie shows that we have far too many hacks in this board.

Says the guy who wasn't born when major world events were going on

what

The fact that he acknowledges this in spite of that makes it more impressive.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just the fact that there are votes for Hillary and Bernie shows that we have far too many hacks in this board.

Says the guy who wasn't born when major world events were going on

Does that have anything to do with this subject?

[IceSpear]

By the way guys, don't be fooled by immediate "I'm not dropping out!" speeches the night of the caucuses. Bachmann insisted she was still in, only to drop out the next day. Same for Huntsman after NH.

[SillyAmerican]

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are imminent, with Gilmore and Carson possible (Carson is doing badly in New Hampshire). Iowa also seems to be the only place where O'Malley has any momentum, so there's a decent chance there too. Voted for those five.

I agree with ElectionsGuy: those are the five that I think will drop out soon after Iowa. Santorum, Huckabee, Gilmore, Carson, and O'Malley.

[Dorko Julio]

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are imminent, with Gilmore and Carson possible (Carson is doing badly in New Hampshire). Iowa also seems to be the only place where O'Malley has any momentum, so there's a decent chance there too. Voted for those five.

I agree with ElectionsGuy: those are the five that I think will drop out soon after Iowa. Santorum, Huckabee, Gilmore, Carson, and O'Malley.

Yes, I voted for those five people as well. I wanted to be bold and say someone else would drop out too, but I couldn't. The Establishment Gang are doing alright in NH, Fiorina polls better there too than in Iowa I think.

[Penelope]

Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. I guess Martin O'Malley and Jim Gilmore might drop out, too.

[Maxwell]

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, potentially Fiorina.

[Senator Spark]

Carson should drop out of the race if he doesn't have a decent enough showing (top 3) in Iowa, and if he does he will go no farther than NH. Huckabee, Santorum, and Gilmore serve no purpose so they should be gone after Iowa. Fiorina will be hanging around until NH though.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Huckabee and Santorum seem like near-certainties, given that they have clearly staked everything on performing well there. Perhaps Fiorina; I'm not sure which state she considers her best, but if she is relying on Iowa then it would make sense for her to get out quickly. Carson is a possibility if he badly underperforms, otherwise I think he could be in through South Carolina.

I think O'Malley probably lasts until New Hampshire, but it is certainly possible he gives up before then.

[Gass3268]

Huckabee and Santorum

I think Carson waits until after South Carolina or Super Tuesday. More will drop out after New Hampshire.

[Kingpoleon]

Just the fact that there are votes for Hillary and Bernie shows that we have far too many hacks in this board.

Says the guy who wasn't born when major world events were going on

Same goes for you. Unless you knew Alexander the Great?

[Leinad]

Huckabee and Santorum most likely.

Not Gilmore, because he's focused on New Hampshire.

Maybe Carson and Fiorina, but I'm guessing they'll stay in another state or two. I don't think either of them ever thought they could win or were even trying too hard at that.

Maybe O'Malley. But I doubt it. I mean, he already has about 0% chance to win, if he hasn't dropped out yet, why not take it to New Hampshire?

[Stan]

Huckabee and Santurum.
O'Malley and Gilmore in My opinion will leave after NH.
Carson and Fiorina will not leave before NH and they'll decide after their NH results, IMHO.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't believe any of them will drop out after Iowa.  New Hampshire is a primary; that's another story.  Why should they drop out when they are just a smidgen away from new life in New Hampshire, potentially?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Carson does as Selzer says he might, then it he might hang around at least until NH, maybe even SC.

[pho]

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, potentially Fiorina.

[Mr. Morden]

To me, Carson doesn't seem rational enough to realize that it's time to pull the plug.  I could imagine him dropping out this week, but I could also imagine him staying in the race until June, well after he's run out of money.

[Torie]

To me, Carson doesn't seem rational enough to realize that it's time to pull the plug.  I could imagine him dropping out this week, but I could also imagine him staying in the race until June, well after he's run out of money.

Yeah, I tend to think he will hang around, until his intake of money slows to the point that he can't pay his bills.

[Senator Cris]

Huckabee and Santorum.