Who will be the next to drop out?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm starting to think Huckabee will be the next to drop out, he's polling at 1% now and his own campaign is falling apart.

[Broken System]

Probability of staying in until at least Iowa:

99%
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie,

80%
Graham, Paul, Gilmore, Kasich

40%
Fiorina, Carson, Pataki, Huckabee


Of those bottom 4, I will make the gutsy decision of saying Carson drops out next.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Probability of staying in until at least Iowa:

99%
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie,

80%
Graham, Paul, Gilmore, Kasich

40%
Fiorina, Carson, Pataki, Huckabee


Of those bottom 4, I will make the gutsy decision of saying Carson drops out next.

Where do you put Santorum?

[President Johnson]

Somewhat I think of Huckabee, although he's not at the very bottom of the polls.

[This account no longer in use.]

Barring any scandals or gaffes, Pataki.

[Oak Hills]

I'll go with Pataki as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pataki and Gilmore have no reason to be in the race as they've already missed filing deadlines in several states. They'll drop out in the next month or right after Iowa.

[Lyin' Steve]

If Pataki was planning on dropping out he'd do it already.  I think it's already virtually impossible for him to win due to filing deadlines etc.  same with Gilmore.

Carson, Huckabee and Kasich have each telegraphed that they're close to dropping out.

I'm going to go rogue here though and say Bush drops out over christmas.  I don't think he wants to see his numbers go down to 2% and end up off the main debate stage.  Time to bow out quietly when nobody's paying attention.

[Broken System]

Probability of staying in until at least Iowa:

99%
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie,

80%
Graham, Paul, Gilmore, Kasich

40%
Fiorina, Carson, Pataki, Huckabee


Of those bottom 4, I will make the gutsy decision of saying Carson drops out next.

Where do you put Santorum?

I forgot to put him last minute. I put Santorum in 99%, as he will at least try to shoot for a last minute Iowa miracle.

[Oak Hills]

Carson, Huckabee and Kasich have each telegraphed that they're close to dropping out.

Evidence?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Carson, Huckabee and Kasich have each telegraphed that they're close to dropping out.

Evidence?

Huckabee is cutting salaries of his senior staff. No idea how the other two are signaling withdrawal though.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson, Huckabee and Kasich have each telegraphed that they're close to dropping out.

Evidence?

Huckabee is cutting salaries of his senior staff. No idea how the other two are signaling withdrawal though.

I could definitely imagine Kasich dropping out in January, if he's floundering in New Hampshire, and he gets knocked off the debate stage.

Carson, I don't think so.  I could see him staying in a long time, though it depends on the money.  He was in good financial shape as of the end of the 3rd quarter, so he just needs to make sure he doesn't spend himself into oblivion.

[Averroës Nix]

There's an arguable case for that any of two-thirds of the Republican field will be the next candidate to withdraw.

(1) Huckabee's campaign cut salaries for its senior staff and lost its communications director last week. The campaign explained that it was "redirecting resources toward Iowa," which I had assumed was the only state toward which it was directing resources in the first place. Possibly of interest, however, is that Huckabee's campaign manager is his daughter. Maybe it's a family vanity project at this point, and he'll stay in through Iowa for the sake of her career?

(2) Kasich just initiated a major ad buy in New Hampshire. I'm not sure what the dates are on that, but it seems like a final salvo - it's not hard to imagine him dropping out by mid-January if he's not polling better.

(3) Rand Paul has a Senate election to focus on in Kentucky, no debates between now and mid-January, and such horrible showings in the polls that he's not likely to get invited even if he stays in that long. I don't understand why he hasn't suspended his campaign yet, to be honest. Does anyone else know? Is he raising money, showing up constantly on cable news, or quietly attracting enthusiastic crowds at every campaign stop? I don't get it.

(4) Carson and Fiorina are in similar situations to each other at this point: Their moments have come and gone. Most Republicans still like them, but few are supporting them or taking them seriously as candidates. Is it worth remaining in the race for the sake of television appearances, a sense of relevance, and what seem like pretty slim odds that at least a sizable share of voters will reconsider? Carson is still attracting hundreds of people at campaign stops, and he probably has plenty of cash remaining, but Fiorina has neither.

(5) Pataki, Gilmore, or Santorum could drop out at any time, with no explanation and with hardly anyone noticing, but it's hard to say what would prompt any of them to do so at this point. Santorum is now past the point where he can say that he was polling no worse in 2012, and I wonder whether that might weigh on him as the campaign rolls on.

(6) The same applies to with Graham. In addition, there was speculation at 538 last week - grounded in what, I'm not sure - that because a few Senators are withholding their endorsements until Graham withdraws, Graham might suspend his campaign for the sake of unifying the rest of the party against Trump and Cruz.

There are only five candidates who don't seem likely to go anywhere within the next month: Trump, Cruz, Christie, Rubio, and Bush. Cruz, Trump, and Rubio are obviously not even thinking about it. Christie's doing well enough in New Hampshire and building enough of an organization there that he's not likely to end his campaign until that state has voted. And Bush is apparently taking what's left of his campaign and staking his hopes on New Hampshire as well rather than giving up entirely before voting begins.

[Lyin' Steve]

Carson, Huckabee and Kasich have each telegraphed that they're close to dropping out.

Evidence?

Huckabee slashed salaries and cut staff.  Perry, Walker, and Bush all did this, and two of those three guys dropped out within a few weeks.

Kasich is dropping the rest of his money in the next few weeks and his Super PAC has virtually abandoned him to focus on attacking Trump.  He spoke about his campaign in the past tense and seemed resigned in an interview last week and he didn't even try at the debate.

Carson threatened to quit in an interview.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We must prepare for the wave of drop outs that will inevitably come in the next few weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

We must prepare for the wave of drop outs that will inevitably come in the next few weeks.

At this point, I'd lean towards there being no more than two dropouts before Iowa.  I would have expected more by now, but here we are.  The candidates who have already stayed in this long might as well wait until either Iowa or New Hampshire (whichever they're betting on) before dropping out.  But then I think we'll get a slew of dropouts right after New Hampshire.  So many candidates are betting everything on either IA or NH, they'll have no rationale for continuing after those are done.

E.g., I would have expected both Gilmore and Pataki to drop out by now.  Their campaigns are nearly non-existent, but at least they're spending some time in New Hampshire.  What will they do after New Hampshire votes, and they each get 0%?  Sit at home, and try to draw attention to themselves on Twitter?  No, I think they both drop out after New Hampshire.  And they won't be alone.

Maybe an alternative thread idea would be "Guess what week each candidate drops out in."

[IceSpear]

I will now accept my accolades.



I figured he'd want to drop out before the SC filing deadline to avoid embarrassment. I'm surprised more people didn't hypothesize this.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Huckabee and Santorum are prime targets; Pataki and Gilmore have already effectively dropped out, even if they're still officially "candidates."