Do you believe anyone will drop out soon as a result of tonight's debate?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hypothetically who would be most likely to drop out given they have a subpar debate performance?

[yankeesfan]

Yes.  I think this will be the last debate with a 6pm slot.  So at least 4 drop-outs.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yes.  I think this will be the last debate with a 6pm slot.  So at least 4 drop-outs.

IIRC Fox Business said they were going to have a kiddie table debate so..

[Maxwell]

If Jeb Bush bombs this debate hard, I suspect this may be the last time we see Jeb Bush as a candidate in a major forum.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Christie and Kasich would be the two most likely to drop out. I suspect Jeb is in for at least the Nov. debate. Rand has committed, even if he runs on a shoestring and cuts back appearances. And Huckabee is, even more than Gingrich was last time, just running for the free press - he's not leaving until they kick him off the stage (which they should have done years ago).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hopefully Trump

[mencken]

Christie is too stubborn to drop out, even if he doesn't make the next debate. Kasich dropped out before the primary season once before, so he will probably want to stick around to at least New Hampshire before calling it a day. Bush won't leave while he is still solvent (Remember Walker had $9 million less CoH at this point). Huckabee will wait until before the Iowa caucus to endorse someone so he can pretend he is still relevant.

Paul seems likeliest of the prime time people, if only because he visibly detests this whole charade, for which no one can blame him. Pataki is probably gone within the next few weeks.

[Bull Moose Base]

Candidates don't quit as a result of debates. Maybe, something happens in a debate which affects their media coverage which affects their polling which affects their finances which makes them give up. But no one drops out because a debate didn't go well.

[eric82oslo]

Pataki

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Candidates don't quit as a result of debates. Maybe, something happens in a debate which affects their media coverage which affects their polling which affects their finances which makes them give up. But no one drops out because a debate didn't go well.

Perry and Walker would like a word with you

[Crumpets]

Yes, Jindal or Santorum.

[ElectionsGuy]

It probably won't be tonight, but a few days down the road 1 or two more will drop out. Likely to be Santorum, Jindal, or Pataki. Jeb Bush could really drop out too if he doesn't do good in the debate, since he has higher standards for himself and his mega donors.

[/]

I'd give it a 50-50 chance that someone drops out as a result of this debate specifically; probably someone in the lower tier if at all.

[Bull Moose Base]

Candidates don't quit as a result of debates. Maybe, something happens in a debate which affects their media coverage which affects their polling which affects their finances which makes them give up. But no one drops out because a debate didn't go well.

Perry and Walker would like a word with you

Tell them I'm not home. Both quit because they were running out of money, and polling atrociously which led to a swirl of stories about how they were on death's door. Same thing is fairly likely to happen with Christie or Paul in the next week or 2 but it won't be because of the debate performance per se.

[Orser67]

I voted no but only because I don't really care about the lower tier.

Among the upper tier, maybe Paul. At this point, he might be better off packing it in and trying again in 2020/2024, when he won't have to worry about re-election simultaneously. With Bush's struggles, none of the other establishment candidates (Rubio, Kasich, Christie, maybe Fiorina) should drop out, and despite what some people say, I think Bush is in it for the long haul since if he drops out this would be his last race ever.

[Maxwell]

Candidates don't quit as a result of debates. Maybe, something happens in a debate which affects their media coverage which affects their polling which affects their finances which makes them give up. But no one drops out because a debate didn't go well.

Perry and Walker would like a word with you

Tell them I'm not home. Both quit because they were running out of money, and polling atrociously which led to a swirl of stories about how they were on death's door. Same thing is fairly likely to happen with Christie or Paul in the next week or 2 but it won't be because of the debate performance per se.

For Walker, I think the debate was potentially a place to turn around the narrative and change his money situation. When he failed to do that, the factors around him swelled even further to devour him. So in a sense I believe you are correct that the writing was already on the wall, but the debate did have an effect.

Perry's campaign, however, was just hopeless, and I'm not sure why he was brought up as an example (unless he is bringing up Perry's 2012 campaign, which was absolutely because of his embarrassing performances).

[Likely Voter]

As has been said before, campaigns don't end, they run out of money. So in the case of someone like Bush, he can survive a bad performance at least in the short term. However (in the main debate) others like Paul, Christie, Huckabee and Kasich may not be able to survive the ripple effect of a bad performance...resulting in bad polling, resulting in bad fund raising.

As for the undercard people, they are all on death watch and should all drop out but all seem to cling on for no apparent reason regardless of debate performance

[I support Sanders]

I think Rand Paul, barring a stellar performance which leads to a subsequent rise in his poll numbers, will drop out within the next few weeks, and the likelihood increases the more Mitch McConnell puts pressure on him to focus on his Senate campaign. Of the lower-tier candidates, I would say George Pataki will drop out within a few weeks.

[I support Sanders]

Pataki

I agree, which is a shame, because he is one of the sanest Republicans running.

[Bull Moose Base]

As has been said before, campaigns don't end, they run out of money. So in the case of someone like Bush, he can survive a bad performance at least in the short term. However (in the main debate) others like Paul, Christie, Huckabee and Kasich may not be able to survive the ripple effect of a bad performance...resulting in bad polling, resulting in bad fund raising.

As for the undercard people, they are all on death watch and should all drop out but all seem to cling on for no apparent reason regardless of debate performance

Yeah, I agree with this take.

One of the developments that hasn't gotten enough attention in my opinion is that Bush's SuperPAC is planning to expand beyond advertising to organizing. It further erodes any semblance of campaign finance laws and the fact that the people running Bush's SuperPAC attended the Bush Family reassurance convention in Houston smacks of illegal coordination. Maybe Bush will get indicted before this is all said and done but no reason for him to drop out before New Hampshire or, as I've argued before, Florida if there's a viable rebound for him there.

[rbt48]

Pitaki and Jindal.

[Likely Voter]

As has been said before, campaigns don't end, they run out of money. So in the case of someone like Bush, he can survive a bad performance at least in the short term. However (in the main debate) others like Paul, Christie, Huckabee and Kasich may not be able to survive the ripple effect of a bad performance...resulting in bad polling, resulting in bad fund raising.

As for the undercard people, they are all on death watch and should all drop out but all seem to cling on for no apparent reason regardless of debate performance

Yeah, I agree with this take.

One of the developments that hasn't gotten enough attention in my opinion is that Bush's SuperPAC is planning to expand beyond advertising to organizing. It further erodes any semblance of campaign finance laws and the fact that the people running Bush's SuperPAC attended the Bush Family reassurance convention in Houston smacks of illegal coordination. Maybe Bush will get indicted before this is all said and done but no reason for him to drop out before New Hampshire or, as I've argued before, Florida if there's a viable rebound for him there.

Bush is totally pushing the limit of the law on Super PACs. He still appears at events for his Super PAC. His campaign and his super PAC have held events at the same location on the same day. His Super PAC was set up by him with one of his best buddies running it. It was set up from the beginning to do things that are normally done by campaigns. That is why Bush is set up to switch to 'zombie campaign' mode more than any other candidate, where his campaign trims down to the bare bones and lets the Super PAC handle most things.

The problem is the FEC has essentially given up on enforcing anything.

[RINO Tom]

How much time after tonight is still considered to be "as a result of tonight's debate?"  Because I don't think anyone drops out until next week, but I guess his/her debate performance could be the reason.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How much time after tonight is still considered to be "as a result of tonight's debate?"  Because I don't think anyone drops out until next week, but I guess his/her debate performance could be the reason.

Reasonably within the next week or 2

[RINO Tom]

How much time after tonight is still considered to be "as a result of tonight's debate?"  Because I don't think anyone drops out until next week, but I guess his/her debate performance could be the reason.

Reasonably within the next week or 2

Then I'd say yes.  However, I really don't know who it'll be.  As long as Pataki and Gilmore haven't dropped out, I have no friggin' clue who to pick, LOL.