Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Does anyone know what time they will release the candidates who will be where?

[The Other Castro]

Fox better come out with a poll today, or we enter the chaos zone in picking the 4th poll.

[Angel of Death]

I wonder how the Paul campaign will react if they are knocked down into the kiddie debate. There is a possibility of a Fiorina moment.

Do you have any idea how desperate that sounds?

[Likely Voter]

Fox better come out with a poll today, or we enter the chaos zone in picking the 4th poll.

We should know by 6pm eastern (in 3 hours). If they are releasing one it would be during Brett Baier's show. That is when they released their last poll before the first Fox debate.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have a feeling they're stalling to find ways to keep Huckabee and Christie in...but meh.

[ShadowRocket]

I have to wonder if Christie possibly getting bumped down to the JV debate would be necessarily a bad thing for him? He'd probably dominate it in a way that hasn't really been able to do in the main debates.

[Likely Voter]

Brett Baier ‏confirmed on Twitter "New @foxnewspoll polls out tonight"  Not sure why he said 'polls' plural. Maybe he meant for both Dems and GOP. I don't recall Fox doing any state polls this year.

[Skye]

Brett Baier ‏confirmed on Twitter "New @foxnewspoll polls out tonight"  Not sure why he said 'polls' plural. Maybe he meant for both Dems and GOP. I don't recall Fox doing any state polls this year.

Yeah, perhaps he meant that. Or primary/general polls.

[Mr. Morden]

Now that the Fox poll is out, it looks like Christie is indeed relegated to the kiddie debate.  For Huckabee, it’s unclear.  If the IBD/TIPP poll counts, then he’s in the kiddie debate too.  If it doesn’t, then he’s in the big boy debate.

Gilmore and Pataki are shut out of even the kiddie debate.  Either Graham or Jindal will be shut out too, but which one it is depends on whether IBD/TIPP counts or not.

So the grownup debate will have 8 or 9 candidates, and the kiddie table will have 3 or 4.

[/]

Now that the Fox poll is out, it looks like Christie is indeed relegated to the kiddie debate.  For Huckabee, it’s unclear.  If the IBD/TIPP poll counts, then he’s in the kiddie debate too.  If it doesn’t, then he’s in the big boy debate.

Gilmore and Pataki are shut out of even the kiddie debate.  Either Graham or Jindal will be shut out too, but which one it is depends on whether IBD/TIPP counts or not.

So the grownup debate will have 8 or 9 candidates, and the kiddie table will have 3 or 4.

Not Christie!

And if IBD counts, is Graham or Jindal still in?

Best case scenario - Jindal and Huckabee down as well.

[Mr. Morden]

Now that the Fox poll is out, it looks like Christie is indeed relegated to the kiddie debate.  For Huckabee, it’s unclear.  If the IBD/TIPP poll counts, then he’s in the kiddie debate too.  If it doesn’t, then he’s in the big boy debate.

Gilmore and Pataki are shut out of even the kiddie debate.  Either Graham or Jindal will be shut out too, but which one it is depends on whether IBD/TIPP counts or not.

So the grownup debate will have 8 or 9 candidates, and the kiddie table will have 3 or 4.

Not Christie!

And if IBD counts, is Graham or Jindal still in?

Best case scenario - Jindal and Huckabee down as well.

If IBD counts, then Graham is out.  If it doesn't count, then Jindal's out.

[Likely Voter]

Assuming average includes latest polls from Fox, Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, and CBS/NYT, you get the following

MAIN DEBATE
Carson   25.25
Trump   23.75
Rubio   11.00
Cruz   9.50
Bush   5.75
Fiorina   4.00
Kasich   3.50
Huckabee   3.00
Paul   3.00

KIDDIE DEBATE
Christie   2.25
Graham   0.50
Santorum   0.50

NO DEBATE
Jindal   0.00
Pataki   0.00
Gilmore   0.00


If they chose to use the IBD/TIPP poll instead of the CBS/NYT poll, you get this....

MAIN DEBATE
Trump   25.25
Carson   24.50
Rubio   11.75
Cruz   10.00
Bush   5.50
Fiorina   3.00
Kasich   2.75
Paul   2.50

KIDDIE DEBATE
Huckabee   2.25
Christie   2.25
Jindal   0.50
Santorum   0.50

NO DEBATE
Graham   0.00
Pataki   0.00
Gilmore   0.00

[/]

Now that the Fox poll is out, it looks like Christie is indeed relegated to the kiddie debate.  For Huckabee, it’s unclear.  If the IBD/TIPP poll counts, then he’s in the kiddie debate too.  If it doesn’t, then he’s in the big boy debate.

Gilmore and Pataki are shut out of even the kiddie debate.  Either Graham or Jindal will be shut out too, but which one it is depends on whether IBD/TIPP counts or not.

So the grownup debate will have 8 or 9 candidates, and the kiddie table will have 3 or 4.

Not Christie!

And if IBD counts, is Graham or Jindal still in?

Best case scenario - Jindal and Huckabee down as well.

If IBD counts, then Graham is out.  If it doesn't count, then Jindal's out.

This makes it really hard for me to decide whether I want it to count or not. It would be nice if both Huck and Jindal go down, but I guess it's one or the other.

[Mr. Morden]

According to this story, the debate lineup will be announced on Thursday night at 7pm on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/04/media/gop-fox-business-debate-polls/index.html

[Likely Voter]

According to this story, the debate lineup will be announced on Thursday night at 7pm on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/04/media/gop-fox-business-debate-polls/index.html

FWIW, the guy who wrote that article, just tweeted this...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he believes Fox will not use the IBD poll. Not sure if that is based on educated guess or inside info from Fox.  Of course with Fox, who knows what they will do. Remember last time they unexpectedly kicked out a NBC/WSJ poll saying they didn't like the way the presidential question was worded.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Christie had a great week now he's relegated to kiddie table? LOL

[retromike22]

Christie had a great week now he's relegated to kiddie table? LOL

On the other hand, this will give him more minutes to speak.

[Likely Voter]

Here is another wrinkle. If you look at the wording of the latest NBC/WSJ poll, it is the same as the one that Fox rejected back in August. The issue is that the NBC pollster reads out 10 names and 'other', and they only read out the names of Jindal, Santorum, Pataki, Gilmore and Graham if you say 'other'.  So it is possible (maybe even likely) that Fox will again reject the NBC/WSJ poll for not reading out all the names.

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.  However, it changes up who else is in the undercard. If they chose Monmouth, then Jindal gets in, if they choose ABC the Pataki gets in, and obviously if they use both polls then both of them get in. And if they chose the IBD/TIPP poll, then Jindal is in and Pataki is out. In all scenarios Santorum and Graham are in the undercard.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here is another wrinkle. If you look at the wording of the latest NBC/WSJ poll, it is the same as the one that Fox rejected back in August. The issue is that the NBC pollster reads out 10 names and 'other', and they only read out the names of Jindal, Santorum, Pataki, Gilmore and Graham if you say 'other'.  So it is possible (maybe even likely) that Fox will again reject the NBC/WSJ poll for not reading out all the names.

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.  However, it changes up who else is in the undercard. If they chose Monmouth, then Jindal gets in, if they choose ABC the Pataki gets in, and obviously if they use both polls then both of them get in. And if they chose the IBD/TIPP poll, then Jindal is in and Pataki is out. In all scenarios Santorum and Graham are in the undercard.

This makes your head spin sometimes lol.

[Mr. Morden]

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.

If they count IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ or IBD/TIPP and ABC/WaPo then Huckabee doesn’t make it.

[Likely Voter]

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.

If they count IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ or IBD/TIPP and ABC/WaPo then Huckabee doesn’t make it.

If you read the preceding paragraph you would see I was outlining a scenario where they reject the NBC/WSJ poll due to question wording (as they did in August).   

[Mr. Morden]

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.

If they count IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ or IBD/TIPP and ABC/WaPo then Huckabee doesn’t make it.

If you read the preceding paragraph you would see I was outlining a scenario where they reject the NBC/WSJ poll due to question wording (as they did in August).   

OK, right, I was thinking about if they reject NBC/WSJ but include IBD/TIPP.  But now I realize that including IBD/TIPP means that they won't include any of the Oct. 15-18 polls, so yes, you're right, if they reject NBC/WSJ, then Huck is in.  The only scenario that excludes Huck is the one where they include both IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ.

[The Other Castro]

This is why we can't have nice things.

[Senator Cris]

It's a shame that a so talented politician (regardless of political orientation, even Rachel Maddow said that), that's having a momentum (he's growing in all national polls, he's growing 6 points in NH and is now beating Jeb in this state and he's close to him in national poll), that had 3 good debate performances out of 3 debates is out of the main debate and that someone like Paul or Huckabee is in the main debate, but these are the rules.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's a shame that a so talented politician (regardless of political orientation, even Rachel Maddow said that), that's having a momentum (he's growing in all national polls, he's growing 6 points in NH and is now beating Jeb in this state and he's close to him in national poll), that had 3 good debate performances out of 3 debates is out of the main debate and that someone like Paul or Huckabee is in the main debate, but these are the rules.

Christie is also one of the most incompetent governors in the country who made his state even more Democratic than it already is. He has governed over multiple credit downgrades and very bad economy