Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[Senator Cris]

So looks like that despite grow in post-debate polls, Christie will not be making the main debate

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Christie, let the hate flow through you that the GOP isn't supporting you enough to get in the debate....then DROP OUT

[Senator Cris]

Christie, let the hate flow through you that the GOP isn't supporting you enough to get in the debate....then DROP OUT

Paul is the next one

[/]

Adios Christie

[Likely Voter]

Don't count Christie out yet, if no new polls come out, he is in (assuming the TIPP poll isn't used and the new NBC poll kicks out the last NBC poll). If one new poll comes out, then he just needs to get 3% (which is what he got in the new NBC poll).  Right now I would say Christie's odds of making it are around 60/40 in favor of making it in. BTW, same goes for Kasich.

 

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

[Likely Voter]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

I had a feeling there would be another. Heard anything about Fox? Seems likely they would have a poll out for their debate (I know it's Fox Biz but same diff).

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

I had a feeling there would be another. Heard anything about Fox? Seems likely they would have a poll out for their debate (I know it's Fox Biz but same diff).

I would assume so.

[Likely Voter]

Going back to my post last night, if there are two new polls then Kasich and Huckabee are probably safe (they need to avg 1.5). Paul needs to average 2% and Christie needs to average 3%.

Also Jindal, Pataki and Gilmore need to get 1% in one of the polls to get into the kiddie table debate, which in theory could end up with just two people (Graham and Santorum).

(again, all this is assuming IBD/TIPP is not considered a 'major poll' by Fox)

[/]

Going back to my post last night, if there are two new polls then Kasich and Huckabee are probably safe (they need to avg 1.5). Paul needs to average 2% and Christie needs to average 3%.

Also Jindal and Pataki need to get 1% in one of the polls to get into the kiddie table debate, which in theory could end up with just two people (Graham and Santorum).

(again, all this is assuming IBD/TIPP is not considered a 'major poll' by Fox)

It would be beautiful to see Jindal out.

[ElectionsGuy]

Will there be pressure for Jindal to drop out if the Louisiana Governor's race goes as its going right now? That would be a huge embarrassment as the current Governor. But, I suppose it didn't stop O'Malley.

[The Other Castro]

Gilmore probably will be left out again, but at least one of either Pataki or Jindal will make it (though I think both will). It seems like it will be difficult for Christie to get an average of 3% over the next two polls, with the new question becoming whether he will attend the kiddie table debate, sit it out, or drop out altogether.

[Likely Voter]

There is quite a lot of drama for those on the bubble of getting into the Fox Biz debate, especially with Christie. Will he make it in? Would he go to the kiddie table? Will Fox do some poll selection jiu jitsu to help or hurt him (or other candidates). Yet I havent seen any news coverage of this. People are paying more attention to the debate negotiations chaos, which really would only effect the CNN debate in December and beyond.

[Mr. Morden]

If there are two more polls (Quinnipiac and Fox), and if they *are* counting IBD/TIPP, then Christie, Huck, Kasich, and Paul are all in danger of being sent to the kids' table.  If we just average IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ, then all four of those candidates average only 2.0%.  So they would need to average 3% in the final two polls, which isn't guaranteed.  Any of them could easily be at 2% in one poll and 3% in the other...which wouldn't be good enough.

In other words, this debate could end up with anywhere from 6 to 10 candidates being invited, since Christie, Huck, Kasich, and Paul could all potentially miss out.

OTOH, if IBD/TIPP is being excluded, I think it's really just Christie who's in danger, barring some catastrophically bad #s for the others.

I guess we'll know more in a few hours, when that Quinnipiac poll comes out.

[Senator Cris]

So what polls are included in the average? NBC/WSJ and Quinnipiac or NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac and IBD/TIPP? Should the CBS poll be included?

[Senator Cris]

4 most recent polls:
Quinnipiac (Nov. 4)
NBC (Nov. 2)
IBD (Oct. 30)
CBS (Oct. 27)
Monmouth (Oct. 20)

Averaging Quinnipiac, NBC, IBD and CBS we get:

Carson 25.25
Trump 24.25
Rubio 11.00
Cruz 8.25
Bush 6.25
Fiorina 4.00
Kasich 2.75
Paul 2.50
Huckabee 2.25
Christie 2.00

Averaging Quinnipiac, NBC, CBS and Monmouth we get:

Trump 24.25
Carson 24.00
Rubio 9.75
Cruz 9.25
Bush 6.00
Fiorina 4.75
Huckabee 3.00
Paul 3.00
Kasich 2.75
Christie 2.50

[Mr. Morden]

OK, with the Quinnipiac poll out now, where do we stand?  We don’t know if they’ll count IBD/TIPP, and we don’t know if any more polls are coming out today (probably one from Fox, but we don’t know).  So we have to consider the different scenarios.

If there are no more polls, and IBD/TIPP counts

adult debate
Carson 25.25%
Trump 24.25%
Rubo 11%
Cruz 8.25%
Bush 6.25%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 2.75%
Paul 2.5%

kiddie debate
Huckabee 2.25%
Christie 2%
Graham, Jindal, Santorum all less than 1%, but still make it

don’t even qualify for kiddie debate
Gilmore
Pataki

If there’s one more poll, and IBD/TIPP counts
In this case, we currently have:

adult debate
Carson 25%
Trump 25%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 9.7%
Bush 6%
Fiorina 3%

kiddie debate
Christie 2.3% (needs at least 3% in the last poll to reach adult table)
Kasich 2.3% (needs at least 3% in the last poll to reach adult table)
Paul 2% (needs at least 4% in the last poll to reach adult table)
Huckabee 1.7% (needs at least 5% in the last poll to reach adult table)
Jindal, Santorum both less than 1%, but still make it

don’t even qualify for kiddie debate (but would make kiddie debate if they get 1% in the final poll)
Gilmore
Graham
Pataki

If there’s one more poll, and IBD/TIPP doesn’t count
In this case, we currently have:
Carson 26%
Trump 23%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 9%
Bush 6.3%
Fiorina 4.3%
Kasich 3.3%
Huckabee 2.7% (needs at least 2% in the last poll to avoid kiddie table)
Paul 2.7% (needs at least 2% in the last poll to avoid kiddie table)

kiddie debate
Christie 2.3% (needs at least 3% in the last poll to reach adult table)
Graham, Santorum both less than 1%, but still make it

don’t even qualify for kiddie debate (but would make kiddie debate if they get 1% in the final poll)
Gilmore
Jindal
Pataki

[The Other Castro]

I think we're heading towards the scenario with 1 more poll, and IBD not counting. With Rubio and Cruz probably polling above 10 in the next poll, all three of Huckabee, Christie, and Paul are up in the air. Kasich is almost definitely in though, I doubt FOX is going to count IBD.

[Mr. Morden]

Funnily enough, depending on what happens with the final poll (if there is one), the kiddie table debate could include anywhere from 2 to 9 candidates.

What will they do if it's just Graham and Santorum who qualify for the kiddie table (with Jindal, Gilmore, and Pataki not making it, and the top 10 candidates all making it to the big boys' table)?  A one hour debate just between those two?

[weixiaobao]

Do we expect any other poll today?

[King]

I hope they stick to the damn criteria and don't renege like the last three debates have. We need people OFF the stage.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Christie debating Santorum and Graham? LOL

If Christie is at the kids table, its not going to be pretty. Santorum is going to go home crying.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Anyone else think that they will have a 'change of heart' at the last minute to bring Christie and/or Huckabee into the debate?

[Likely Voter]

If Christie does get relegated I think he will show up. Last night on Fox he said he said he wasn't going to sign the 'letter' with the list of demands on debates because it was "stupid"...he also said "put me behind a podium and ask me some questions".  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gj07w9J6Ow

It would be hard for him to complain about the rules relegating him now.

BTW, I rescind my earlier prediction that Trump wont show up. The 'candidates are acting like babies over the debates' meme is growing and his image can't handle looking afraid. He has to refuse to go from a position of strength, not weakness. (but I still think he will find a way to get out of one or more debates this season)

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Can we finally get rid of the tedious loser candidates? Will that happen at all before Iowa?