UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[YL]

The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition has passed, with 10,005 signatures (19%; the requirement is 10%).  So Chris Davies loses his seat, and there will be a by-election (well, unless it's overtaken by a General Election).  He can stand again; we'll see whether the local Tories want him to.

[Silent Hunter]

Ooh, that will be fun.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Awful news for the Tories. Imagine Boris losing a by election in his first week as PM...

[DaWN]

I'd like to think the Lib Dems would be very heavy favourites for this, but them cocking it up can't really be ruled out, can it?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Assuming both Brexit and the Tories both run candidates, I can't imagine the Lib Dems not winning - and by a substantial margin at that.

Plaid Cymru are signalling they may sit this race out.

[CumbrianLefty]

Plaid Cymru are signalling they may sit this race out.

Whilst this is one of their weakest seats of all, you have to go back to the 1960s for them last not contesting *any* constituency in a Welsh parliamentary election (the nearest was when a Green candidate on a "joint" ticket with them fought Monmouth in the 1992 GE)

So I will believe this when I see it.

[Diouf]

Electoralcalculus prediction of vote share based on current national polls:

Lib Dem 32.1%
Brexit 30.1%
Conservative 17.0%
Labour 9.0%
Green 5.2%
Plaid Cymru 4.9%

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brecon%20and%20Radnorshire

[CumbrianLefty]

Which merely shows, yet again, how much pish Electoral Calculus actually is

[MaxQue]

Scottish Parliament by-election to be held in Shetland, after the resignation of Tavish Scott (former leader of the Scottish LDs, MSP since the inception of the Parliament in 1999) to become head of external affairs for Scottish Rugby.

[beesley]

Scottish Parliament by-election to be held in Shetland, after the resignation of Tavish Scott (former leader of the Scottish LDs, MSP since the inception of the Parliament in 1999) to become head of external affairs for Scottish Rugby.

I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems didn't hold this. But Tavish Scott is a loss to them.

[CumbrianLefty]

SNP might have fancied a go here at the height of their "wave", probably not now though.

[Tintrlvr]

SNP might have fancied a go here at the height of their "wave", probably not now though.

No way, even at the SNP's height. In a by-election where the SNP was seriously contesting, voters would have rallied around the likeliest anti-independence candidate (probably the Lib Dem but maybe a Tory, Labour or independent candidate in the right situation). Shetland is as strongly anti-independence as the borders, not somewhere the SNP can win.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the 2015 GE result in O&S shows they came close at least.

[Tintrlvr]

Well the 2015 GE result in O&S shows they came close at least.

Only because the voters were trying to punish the Lib Dems (yesterday's news), but point taken.

[YL]

The writ has just been moved for Brecon & Radnorshire.  It will be held on 1 August, the first August Westminster by-election since the second Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election in 1981.

The Tories are sticking with Chris Davies.

[Silent Hunter]

Why are they sticking with him? Are they insane?

[cp]

If I had to guess, I'd say there were relatively few local Tories who wanted to be the sacrificial lamb and the head office figured they'd go with the devil they knew rather than recruit some unknown who might have an even worse secret in their hitherto unexamined closet.

[CumbrianLefty]

The writ has just been moved for Brecon & Radnorshire.  It will be held on 1 August, the first August Westminster by-election since the second Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election in 1981.

The Tories are sticking with Chris Davies.

And the first August poll on the mainland since Birmingham Ladywood in 1977.

(though 20 years later Uxbridge polled on July 31)

[Silent Hunter]

Greens will not field a candidate here to give the Lib Dems a clear run.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though they didn't stand here in the 2017 GE either, so this development isn't that sensational.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1146896137250586625

Well screw what I said earlier, especially since Labour appears to be in the sh**tter right now. Definitely a Tossup between the Tories and L-Ds, but who knows with the current polling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not so sure about "tossup" - the LibDems will be seriously miffed if they don't win this one (and that should still be the case even had PC and the Greens stood, in fact)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's be clear: Plaid pulling out to give the LibDems a 'clear run' here is a little as if I were to declare that I am 'pulling out' of a Tennis tournament in order to give Roger Federer a better chance of winning.

[CumbrianLefty]

In other byelection news, police have announced there are no grounds to pursue any of the electoral fraud allegations that were made about the Peterborough contest.

I am sure you are all massively surprised that there is no actual evidence hundreds of Brexit Party votes were burned, for example.......

[YL]

Six candidates for Brecon & Radnorshire

Chris Davies (Con)
Tomos Glyndwr Davies (Lab)
Jane Dodds (LD)
Des Parkinson (Brexit Party)
Liz Phillips (UKIP)
Lady Lily The Pink (OMRLP)

Perhaps the Labour candidate is going after the Plaid vote with that middle name?