UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[CumbrianLefty]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

Yes, it struck me as managing to be a rather disappointing result for everybody.  Big two both down, fairly substantially, but none of the others really making a breakthrough.

On to Peterborough, I suspect.  I fear the Tories may win that back.

Good chance that Brexit related events might have seriously impacted their vote by then.

(some pundits saying it is "remarkable" their vote wasn't down by more in Newport, but they quite possibly "won" the postal vote or at least came close - and most of those will have been cast before the recent "chaos")

[Walmart_shopper]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

Yes, it struck me as managing to be a rather disappointing result for everybody.  Big two both down, fairly substantially, but none of the others really making a breakthrough.

On to Peterborough, I suspect.  I fear the Tories may win that back.

Good chance that Brexit related events might have seriously impacted their vote by then.

(some pundits saying it is "remarkable" their vote wasn't down by more in Newport, but they quite possibly "won" the postal vote or at least came close - and most of those will have been cast before the recent "chaos")

The weather was also ridiculous, which rarely augurs well for a robust result for anyone, anyway. I suspect that a general election would see a very different dynamic at work.

[CumbrianLefty]

The nice weather we had just a week earlier would probably have meant both the turnout and Labour share going above 40%. Tories are still better placed to benefit from dreadful climatic conditions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can't say it's *boring* for all those minor parties (and both Tories and UKIP benefited from "familiar" standard-bearers)

Boring in that the result was exactly as expected, I mean. It could easily be a pointer to the immediate future: big falls in vote share for the big two, but with the lost votes scattering wildly rather than consolidating.

[CumbrianLefty]

But it was still a byelection, where it is easier for parties outside the "big two" to gain support.

Especially given their absolutely gushing write-up in the Graun, it was an underwhelming vote for Renew actually.

[jaichind]

But it was still a byelection, where it is easier for parties outside the "big two" to gain support.

Especially given their absolutely gushing write-up in the Graun, it was an underwhelming vote for Renew actually.

Yeah.  I was expecting a greater vote share for both UKIP and Renew.

[YL]

But it was still a byelection, where it is easier for parties outside the "big two" to gain support.

Especially given their absolutely gushing write-up in the Graun, it was an underwhelming vote for Renew actually.

I don't really get the point of Renew.  If I'm looking for an explicitly pro-EU party to vote for (and I might be, especially if there are EU elections) then why would I vote for them ahead of the Lib Dems or Greens?  It's not as if their positioning on other stuff is particularly distinctive.

They did OK for a small party, but given how much effort they put in to lose their deposit isn't very impressive.  At least they did better than the SDP, who made a lot of noise on Twitter for a pretty derisory vote.

[adma]

Can't say it's *boring* for all those minor parties (and both Tories and UKIP benefited from "familiar" standard-bearers)

Boring in that the result was exactly as expected, I mean. It could easily be a pointer to the immediate future: big falls in vote share for the big two, but with the lost votes scattering wildly rather than consolidating.

Sounds a bit like what happened in (and saved) a lot of Northern Labour strongholds by the time Brown and Miliband rolled along...

[Big Boy Beto]

Despite the low turnout, I think this could herald a small UKIP/Brexit Party resurgence, especially if there’s a long extension and/or soft brexit; although coming second would’ve been much more encouraging for them.

It’s looking like Labour are going to collapse in the heartlands.

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s looking like Labour are going to collapse in the heartlands.

Something that has been wishfully fantasised about for years now.

Grow up.

[Blair]

Despite the low turnout, I think this could herald a small UKIP/Brexit Party resurgence, especially if there’s a long extension and/or soft brexit; although coming second would’ve been much more encouraging for them.

It’s looking like Labour are going to collapse in the heartlands.

Where’s the evidence for this? You do know that in nearly every labour leave seat a majority of labour voters still voted remain... although this post is a fun flashback to when atom Watson and Dennis Skinner were set to lose in 2017 because Mrs Thatcher May was so popular with ‘ordinary labour folk’.

[CumbrianLefty]

And even before that, remember those now airbrushed "glory days" when "Labour's heartlands" were going to vote UKIP en masse - for literally no other reason than Paul Nuttall having a scouse accent?

[Silent Hunter]

We got the referendum promise from the Tories before that could happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

We got the referendum promise from the Tories before that could happen.

Eh??

[Silent Hunter]

The Tories won the election with that promise and held it... Labour did pretty poorly in 2015, if you recall. Since the Leave vote, UKIP's raison d'etre ceased to be.

[CumbrianLefty]

You do know when Nuttall became UKIP leader, right??

[Silent Hunter]

You do know when Nuttall became UKIP leader, right??

True, but that's because the Leave vote had happened by then...

[CumbrianLefty]

And look back at the media coverage when he *was* elected, is my point.

Vast numbers of "LABOUR IS DOOMED" pieces, quoting supposed "Labour MPs" literally soiling their pants.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Brexit issue does place electoral pressure on Labour, it won't be in places like that, I suspect.

[adma]

The Tories won the election with that promise and held it... Labour did pretty poorly in 2015, if you recall.

But it wasn't a "collapse in the heartlands" kind of "pretty poorly" (except in Scotland, of course)

[CumbrianLefty]

Its highly debatable if that was a significant factor in winning the 2015 GE for the Tories anyway. The shameless drumbeat of "SCARY SCOTS WILL RAPE AND KILL YOU" (I exaggerate slightly, but only slightly) was vastly more effective IMO (and, lets not forget, inspired by Bibi's equally demagogic election saving tactics in Israel months earlier)

[YL]

I think the referendum promise was more to do with keeping the Tory party together and stopping their own bleeding to UKIP than to do with getting Labour votes.

It summed up Cameron: short termist pandering with no thought to the consequences.

[Blair]

And the reality that Labour lost the economic message decisively in the 2015 campaign; whilst failing to win marginals in places like Croydon, which was hardly down to UKIP. In 2017, you at least had both leaders on equal personal footings by the end, combined with Labour winning the economic argument.

2015 was just a reminder that it's hard for an incumbent to lose unless something changes in the campaign.

If the Brexit issue does place electoral pressure on Labour, it won't be in places like that, I suspect.

And yes; the fetishization of Labour losing it's 'white working class vote' (a story, and theme which I believe has been popular since the 1930s) means that people are ignoring that all it takes is a modest shift/revival for the pro-EU parties, to cost Labour a number of target seats, or current marginals it holds.

To give an example, Ashfield is one of the Labour-Leave seats where the Lib Dems had 7,000 votes in 2015, and fell to 2,000- all it takes is some pissed off pro-Europeans to vote for them, and Labours vote falls. Of course this is just a random example I saw on twitter- but it's a fatal excuse to believe that as Dennis Healey said '[pro-Europeans] have nowhere else to go'.

 

[CumbrianLefty]

And the reality that Labour lost the economic message decisively in the 2015 campaign; whilst failing to win marginals in places like Croydon, which was hardly down to UKIP. In 2017, you at least had both leaders on equal personal footings by the end, combined with Labour winning the economic argument

Labour lost the economic argument in 2015 because it barely bothered to put it, instead accepting the Tory framing totally meekly.

Its hard to overstate how catastrophic Balls was as shadow chancellor - all the stranger given how eloquently he had spoken against austerity during the 2010 leadership campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

The recall petition in Peterborough has succeeded, easily.

Polling day likely to be 6 June.