UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[beesley]

Peterborough is a lovely city, I've been several times, but I'm honestly not sure what the result would be. I could predict who would win but that doesn't mean I'd actually make a good prediction. Personally I find by-elections far harder to predict.

Sackville Stopford-Sackville?

Sounds like a Canadian riding.

[YL]

I think it will be close between Labour and the Brexit Party, but it is hard to guess how much patterns from the Euro elections will carry over.  I will be surprised if anyone else is close; it is not fertile ground for the Lib Dems or Greens, and I expect the Tories to lose a lot of their 2017 vote share to the Brexit Party.

[Tintrlvr]

Sackville Stopford-Sackville?

Sounds like a Canadian riding.

Or a distant Baggins relation.

[Sestak]

Both Labour and Brexit engaging in some expectation-setting here, downplaying their chances of victory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout reported as 48.4%.

Recent turnouts at GB by-elections:

2015 - Oldham West & Royton: 40.3
2016 - Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough: 42.5
2016 - Ogmore: 43.0
2016 - Tooting: 42.5
2016 - Batley & Spen: 25.8
2016 - Witney: 46.8
2016 - Richmond Park: 53.4
2016 - Sleaford & North Hykeham: 40.0
2017 - Copeland: 51.3
2017 - Stoke on Trent Central: 38.2
2018 - Lewisham East: 33.3
2018 - Newport West: 37.1

48% is at the higher end, but not abnormally so. Nothing to be too excited about, either way.

[Oryxslayer]

Rumors are labour have held Peterborough with a sub 500 vote margin.

[Matty]

Labour holds the seat


This is an embarrassment for farage

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

[Gracile]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

This is a marginal seat.

Early signs are pointing to a narrow Labour win, a big blow to the Brexit Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/OliverMilne/status/1136797088665092096

About as dignified as we have come to expect.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour holds the seat

This is an embarrassment for farage

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

There are at least 75 seats that voted more for brexit than Peterborough, and the number is likely closer to 100.

[YL]

Phew.

Labour hold by 683.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1136800611012419584

Full results.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its an increased Labour majority

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bad result for everyone, which, I suppose, is as deserved.

[Sestak]

Tories on 20% is better than I expected tbh.

[YL]

I make it
Lab 10,484 (30.91%)
Brexit Party 9801 (28.89%)
Con 7,243 (21.35%)
LD 4,159 (12.26%)
Green 1,035 (3.05%)
UKIP 400 (1.18%)
CPA 162 (0.48%)
Eng Dem 153 (0.45%)
SDP 135 (0.40%)
OMRLP 112 (0.33%)
Moore 101 (0.30%)
Common Good 60 (0.18%)
Renew 45 (0.13%)
UKEUP 25 (0.07%)
Elmo 5 (0.01%)

[YL]

Tories on 20% is better than I expected tbh.

Yes, they held up a little better than I expected, with the Brexit Party correspondingly doing a little worse: I was expecting them to be in the low 30s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories on 20% is better than I expected tbh.

As in Newport, likely boosted by postal votes which were often cast a while before polling day.

Its still down 25 points on 2017, and their lowest Peterborough score ever.

Also the first Tory to Labour swing in a Westminster byelection since Witney in 2016.

[Brittain33]

Just desserts for the Brexit Party after they crowed about winning the European elections with 30% because they came first against divided remainers.

[Walmart_shopper]

At least the nonsense anti-Semitism canard failed to stick to the Labour candidate here. Everyone is seeing bogeymen and it's hard to have quite substantive politics when all you're doing is obsessing about the occult anti-Semitism of people who are quite likely not anti-Semites at all.

[beesley]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

Not really. It's more like Trump losing Southern Illinois - it's territory he should win, but it has different roots.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

Not really. It's more like Trump losing Southern Illinois - it's territory he should win, but it has different roots.

Trump losing Southern Illinois due to a large chunk of the vote going to another Conservative running.

[CumbrianLefty]

At least the nonsense anti-Semitism canard failed to stick to the Labour candidate here. Everyone is seeing bogeymen and it's hard to have quite substantive politics when all you're doing is obsessing about the occult anti-Semitism of people who are quite likely not anti-Semites at all.

She did something silly and insensitive, it happens.

It does not make her (or the others in similar situations) hardcore anti-Semites, and the indiscriminate claims otherwise are only serving to devalue the potency of the term.

All the evidence suggests that overall Forbes will be an asset to Labour's benches in the Commons.

[Silent Hunter]

I wouldn't say that they are hardcore anti-Semites, but the rhetoric that people are using regarding Israel is often slipping into anti-Semitism with the nouns changed... and some of the rhetoric is just used without thinking.

A lot of people could do with sensitivity training here. Making Nazi comparisons is not only offensive and inaccurate, it just gets a lot of people's backs up.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sure, and I try to avoid Godwining generally (not just wrt Israel)

Also the use of the term "Zionist" has (IMO unfortunately) become problematic due to CERTAIN TYPES using it as a straight substitute for Jew - one reason I tend to prefer "Likudist" these days.