UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[YL]

The recall petition in Peterborough has succeeded, easily.

Polling day likely to be 6 June.

It got 27%!  (It needed 10%.)  I think the expectation must now be that Brecon & Radnorshire will succeed as well, though as the incumbent MP's party hasn't abandoned him there it's not likely to be as high as that.

I'm sure the voters of Peterborough will be delighted that George Galloway has announced his candidacy on Twitter.

[Silent Hunter]

The recall petition in Peterborough has succeeded, easily.

Polling day likely to be 6 June.

Onasanya has confirmed she will not stand again.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am also confirming I am not available for selection by the England cricket team

[YL]

15 candidates for Peterborough

Paul Bristow (Con)
Lisa Forbes (Lab)
Stephen Goldspink (English Democrats)
Mike Greene (The Brexit Party)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Pierre Kirk (UK European Union Party)
Andrew Moore (no description)
Patrick O'Flynn (SDP)
Dick Rodgers (The Common Good)
Tom Rogers (Christian People's Alliance)
Beki Sellick (Lib Dem)
Bobby Elmo Smith (no description)
Peter Ward (Renew)
Joseph Wells (Green)
John Whitby (UKIP)

There is no ChUK-TIG candidate.  There were reports that they (rather at the last minute, it would seem) approached the Lib Dems and Greens with an offer that the three parties should support an independent pro-Remain candidate, but that it fell through.

The Common Good is a micro-party who have stood a few times, always with the same candidate.  His best result is 428 votes in the 2005 general election in Birmingham Northfield.  His description this time is "Common Good: Remain In The EU".

The UK European Union Party's purpose is obvious.

I assume "Bobby Elmo Smith" is the same person (a fathers' rights activist) who has stood under the name Bobby Smith for the "Give Me Back Elmo Party" in the past and got three votes standing against Theresa May in Maidenhead in 2017.

[Silent Hunter]

Nuclear Elmo?

[CumbrianLefty]

Not all Greens happy that the party was apparently willing to team up with the Chuka-Chuks, it seems.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

There is no ChUK-TIG candidate.  There were reports that they (rather at the last minute, it would seem) approached the Lib Dems and Greens with an offer that the three parties should support an independent pro-Remain candidate, but that it fell through.

Classic CUK: Sitting it out and watching others fool around.

[Tintrlvr]

There is no ChUK-TIG candidate.  There were reports that they (rather at the last minute, it would seem) approached the Lib Dems and Greens with an offer that the three parties should support an independent pro-Remain candidate, but that it fell through.

Classic CUK: Sitting it out and watching others fool around.

I’m sure the real reason is that they had no takers to be their candidate, and there was no motivation for the Lib Dem to drop her party label. What a train wreck TIG has turned out to be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Their statement on not contesting the byelection is truly a thing of beauty.

[beesley]

Maybe they would be better if they were less arrogant and did a better job in showing themselves to be an alternative for the Remain. People aren't going to vote for CUK (or should I say, Change UK: The Independent Group and Remain Alliance for Change Now) just because, when they could vote for a far more successful and established party that has a largely similar pokicy on Brexit and has other policies to go with it, whether that other party is the Lib Dems, or in some cases the Greens, Plaid and SNP.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How is Labour doing these days in the English/Welsh coal fields? Are they still left wing bastions noted for virulent anti Thatcherism and anti Toryism?

[Tintrlvr]

The Peterborough result in the Euros is potentially relevant here:

Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)

Looks like it will be tough for the Tories to take it but also tough for Labour to hold it. Lib Dems in third in the Euros probably don't have the momentum to be in contention on a highly fragmented result, either. Lean Brexit Party?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

European Election results generally have little resemblance to other polls, so probably not.

[rc18]

The Peterborough result in the Euros is potentially relevant here:

Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)

Looks like it will be tough for the Tories to take it but also tough for Labour to hold it. Lib Dems in third in the Euros probably don't have the momentum to be in contention on a highly fragmented result, either. Lean Brexit Party?

This is the council area btw, the Westminster constituency only covers part of it.  For a start the constituency would probably be slightly better for Labour.

[Vosem]

Britain does recalls now? With only 10% of the vote necessary to recall an MP?

The next time a government is unpopular without an election looming the country is going to be plunged into permanent general election mode. Really doesn't seem congruent with the British election system.

[Lumine]

Britain does recalls now? With only 10% of the vote necessary to recall an MP?

The next time a government is unpopular without an election looming the country is going to be plunged into permanent general election mode. Really doesn't seem congruent with the British election system.

Only when specific criteria is met, essentially when an MP is convicted (but the sentence isn't enough for him to automatically be thrown out) or suspended from the House (for serious stuff), and only then can a recall petition start.

[politicallefty]

I've been thinking about this as of late, but I'm wondering what most of you might think. How do you think Brexit negotiations would have gone if May hadn't called a snap election in 2017? Would the parliamentary majority have made a difference?

[Zinneke]

I've been thinking about this as of late, but I'm wondering what most of you might think. How do you think Brexit negotiations would have gone if May hadn't called a snap election in 2017? Would the parliamentary majority have made a difference?

Well I thought the whole point of calling that election was because the 10 seat majority the Tories had meant the soft Brexiteers and the ERG group both had too much leverage for May to be able to negotiate a deal and pass it. All it did was bring the DUP into play...what impact did that have? Maybe swung the momentum towards the hard Brexiteers?

[politicallefty]

I've been thinking about this as of late, but I'm wondering what most of you might think. How do you think Brexit negotiations would have gone if May hadn't called a snap election in 2017? Would the parliamentary majority have made a difference?

Well I thought the whole point of calling that election was because the 10 seat majority the Tories had meant the soft Brexiteers and the ERG group both had too much leverage for May to be able to negotiate a deal and pass it. All it did was bring the DUP into play...what impact did that have? Maybe swung the momentum towards the hard Brexiteers?

That's a good point, not to mention the seats that both the Conservatives and Labour lost (i.e. Labour lost some pro-Leave seats and the Tories lost some of their pro-Remain seats). I think May was trying to make the best of what she had in Parliament. I don't expect the current Parliament to deliver Brexit in any way unless the next PM pushes and enforces some form of "no deal".

[Blair]

It’s impossible to know as the dynamics of Mays leadership are so different now- the big error has been assuming that people are voting based on the deal- MPs vote based on the political and power dynamics within the party. If May doesn’t call one her political authority would be much much bigger

[beesley]

Tons of Brexit Party campaigners in Peterborough. This really is a test for them and Labour, for the Conservatives, it's trying to come out respectably.

[Silent Hunter]

The comments by Labour's candidate won't help them there.

Peterborough Telegraph story

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Peterborough by-election will be later today (UK time). What time do the polls close?

[YL]

The Peterborough by-election will be later today (UK time). What time do the polls close?

10pm UK time.

I was thinking of trying to write a preview, explaining the weird political history from the days of the Soke of Peterborough to Helen Clark and Stewart Jackson, but Andrew Teale has done one, so I don't need to.

BTW that University Challenge episode with the MPs team captained by Helen Clark was hilarious.

[Silent Hunter]

Sackville Stopford-Sackville?