Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Boston Bread]

The recount in Northern Sask. has finished: NDP win by 82 votes, up from 71 on election day.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/judicial-recount-confirms-ndp-win-by-82-votes-for-northern-sask-riding-1.3302773?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Lotuslander]

Today's Forum Research opinion poll shows a massive honeymoon commencing for the new Liberal gov't:

Liberal: 55%
CPC: 25%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 4%
Green: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP hasn't been that low since December 2010.

[DL]

The NDP hasn't been that low since December 2010.

That's scary...I mean just four months after December 2010 they took 31% nationally!

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP hasn't been that low since December 2010.

That's scary...I mean just four months after December 2010 they took 31% nationally!

Promiscuous progressives are promiscuous.

[King of Kensington]

It'll be a long time before another 1958, 1984 or 2011 type situation.

[lilTommy]

Liberal Honeymoon and frankly progressives are enjoying the end of Harper... Trudeau has done well in the media in the first few weeks, but its been mostly fluff or superficial yet important changes:
- Gender balanced cabinet and being all about that (even then its not really, 16 men, PM included, 15 women, but close enough and still some really good choices) almost everyone can agree that's a good idea, even conservatives
- Long form census is back; NDP and Liberals agree on that so, Yay
- keeping his promise to bring in 25K refugees; again unanimous progressive support for that
- opening back up the veterans centers that were closed (But, maybe not the same locations/communities from what the minister said)

The Media is being very gushy at the moment, and how could they not be with the media savy Trudeau! but there are serious issues coming up that will hurt the Liberals among progressives (an the NDP needs to get into the game on those!)
- the Liberals are going to Paris with nothing, no targets no nothing, they are going with Harpers old plan from what i read. Once the glow of "Harper's gone!" is done people will see that the Liberals had almost no plan for targets or a national enviro strategy
- TPP; basically two minister and the PM have already come out in support of it and are endorsing it. So basically the Conservatives policy.

Its too early for people to be paying attention, and frankly the NDP fell off the radar to lick its wounds. when the house comes back, they will (god I hope) be confronted with these anti-progressive/harper-like policies.

[2952-0-0]

The TPP may not even matter after all. There's no way the US will ratify it before 2017. Hillary's verbal opposition to it may be just her shape-shifting, but if/when she wins she will find it very difficult for Congress to buy into her flip-flopping. And if Trump or Carson are elected...well, we have bigger issues to worry about.

The Liberals would treat the TPP how they treated Keystone XL: verbally support it, but when the US rejects it due to political reasons do nothing else and move on. It's not the be-all-and-end-all for market access.

[morgieb]

Today's Forum Research opinion poll shows a massive honeymoon commencing for the new Liberal gov't:

Liberal: 55%
CPC: 25%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 4%
Green: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

I know it won't hold, but if it did, how many seats would the Liberals win with 55%? 300+ surely?

[RogueBeaver]

According to Earl's least favourite poll analyst, 240-280 seats.

[Vosem]

Today's Forum Research opinion poll shows a massive honeymoon commencing for the new Liberal gov't:

Liberal: 55%
CPC: 25%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 4%
Green: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

I know it won't hold, but if it did, how many seats would the Liberals win with 55%? 300+ surely?

So, I was curious as to the answer to this question, so I looked at the province-wide numbers and worked it out under universal swing.

The Liberals obviously maintain every seat in the Atlantic and the North. 35 Liberal.
The Liberals win all but 4 seats in Quebec -- Beauce; Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Levis; Levis-Lotbiniere; and Louis-Saint-Laurent -- all of which vote Conservative. The Bloc and the New Democrats retain no seats in the province. Therefore, the total for Quebec is 74 Liberal, 4 Conservative. Canada-wide total is 99 Liberal, 4 Conservative.
The Liberals win all but 6 seats in Ontario. The Conservatives retain Elgin-Middlesex-London; Lambton-Kent-Middlesex; and Thornhill. The New Democrats retain Essex; Windsor-Tecumseh; and Windsor West. Therefore, the total for Ontario is 115 Liberals, 3 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats. Canada-wide total is 214 Liberals, 7 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats.
I couldn't find province-wide popular vote totals, so to determine the basis for Manitoba+Saskatchewan I just averaged the two together, and worked off the universal swing from that, which may be flawed. In Manitoba, the New Democrats lose both of their seats -- Churchill to the Liberals, and Elmwood, amusingly, to the Conservatives. Rural Conservative margins are large enough in Man/Sas/Alb that no rural seats are lost. The Manitoba total is 8 Liberals, 6 Conservatives. Canada-wide total is 222 Liberals, 13 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats.
In Saskatchewan, the New Democrats lose Desnethe to the Liberals, and Regina-Lewvan to the Conservatives, while retaining Saskatoon West. The Saskatchewan total is 11 Conservatives, 2 Liberals, 1 New Democrat. Canada-wide total is 224 Liberals, 24 Conservatives, 4 New Democrats.
In Alberta, the Liberals win Calgary Confederation off the Conservatives, and there are no other changes. The Alberta total is 28 Conservatives, 5 Liberals, 1 New Democrat. Canada-wide total is 229 Liberals, 52 Conservatives, 5 New Democrats.
In British Columbia, off of their 26-point gain compared to 2015, the Liberals win every seat except, amusingly, Saanich. (Yes, even their disendorsed candidate in Victoria still wins). The British Columbia total is therefore is 41 Liberals, 1 Green. And the all-Canada totals are:

Liberal Party 270
Conservative Party 52
New Democratic Party 5
Green Party 1
Bloc Quebecois 0

The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh lord.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It would have been really funny if Alberta had closed their polls first on election night. You could see everyone panicking for 2 hours as the Conservative seat and popular vote totals would be just like how the Atlantic was for the Liberals.

[adma]

The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

However, in a 55% scenario, I think you're paying short shrift to latent Liberal strength in *urban* AlSaskMan.  Like, to take one example, you're claiming the Cons would claim Elmwood-Transcona from the Dippers; yet you seem to be overlooking the fact that the Liberal candidate was less than five points behind either.  (And less than 10 points separated the three parties in Regina-Lewvan as well.)

[Vosem]

The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

However, in a 55% scenario, I think you're paying short shrift to latent Liberal strength in *urban* AlSaskMan.  Like, to take one example, you're claiming the Cons would claim Elmwood-Transcona from the Dippers; yet you seem to be overlooking the fact that the Liberal candidate was less than five points behind either.  (And less than 10 points separated the three parties in Regina-Lewvan as well.)

My model was universal swing on a province-by-province basis; I'm well aware that 55% would not actually return such a result (and that the swing might be stronger in urban areas than rural ones, leading to seats in Winnipeg and Regina voting Liberal while Liberals waste fewer votes in rural areas). The swing I used for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, based on that Forum poll, was 1% taken away from the Conservatives, 5% taken away from the New Democrats, and 3% added to the Liberals. This does result in Elmwood-Transcona and Regina-Lewvan voting Conservative, even though I doubt either seat would if Liberals were at 55% nationwide. (Similarly, in British Columbia, I think Conservatives would hold on to Prince George, and New Democrats to Victoria, at the expense of greater Liberal margins in Vancouver. But the model I used was a crude universal swing). Gotta stay consistent in your methodology

[CultySmother]

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They come a bit closer than you think...you've added the numbers wrong. LPC should be at 280 seats in order to give a total of 338 ridings.

[King of Kensington]

Thornhill = Calgary with black hats and yarmulkes

[Vosem]

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They come a bit closer than you think...you've added the numbers wrong. LPC should be at 280 seats in order to give a total of 338 ridings.

You're correct; I mistakenly added 64 rather than 74 Liberal seats from Quebec. The Liberals would have 280 seats, the Conservatives 52, New Democrats 5, and Greens 1. I'm too lazy to go all the way through and change it, and my observations about specific seats still hold.

[DL]

Right after Paul Martin was sworn in in late 2003 polls had the federal liberals in the high 50s and seat projection models gave them 250+ out of 308 seats...just five months later they lost their majority

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Right after Paul Martin was sworn in in late 2003 polls had the federal liberals in the high 50s and seat projection models gave them 250+ out of 308 seats...just five months later they lost their majority

Eric Grenier from 308.com wrote an article about that hypothetical 2003 election :

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/05/the-federal-election-of-2003-that-never.html?spref=tw

[trebor204]

They haven't posted the polling results.

However, the shape files for the polling areas have now been posted

Polling Shape Files:
http://ftp2.cits.rncan.gc.ca/pub/geott/electoral/2015/

Riding Shape File:
http://ftp2.cits.rncan.gc.ca/pub/geobase/official/fed_cf/shp_eng/

A couple of points:

For the polling shape files, they have combined the polling area (regular polls #1-399) with the polling points (apartments #400-#599). The last election had a separate shape file for polling areas and polling points:

Second the Field # for FEDNUM have the wrong field type (Listed as short integer). This causes issues that FEDNUM is listed as a negative number. For example the riding of Ajax is listed as -30535.
To fix it add 65535 to FEDNUM (65535-30535) gives you 35001 which the FED Number for Ajax.

FED Number of -19529  + 65536 = 46007 (FED Number, Portage Lisgar)

FED NUM and Names
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/list&document=index338&lang=e#list

[Krago]

The word on the street is that the results by polling division will be posted at the end of February 2016.

That being said, after the 2011 election Elections Canada posted the poll-by-poll results within a few days after the shapefiles were published.  So be vigilant.

[trebor204]

From the 2011 Forum

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=137008.0

Election: May 2nd.
Polling Maps Released: July 6th.
Polling Results: July 14th.
Election Report: August 17th

We could see the results within a week.

[Krago]

The official voting results of the 42nd general election should be available on Elections Canada’s website by the end of next week.

[the506]

Last night the Elections Canada site said it would be Feb 23, but now I see it's been changed to "late February". Which will probably become "Early March", then "late March".

Seriously, they've been sitting on this since October. How hard can it be to just release it already?