French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Tender Branson]

Any links to official results ?

After 8pm I guess.

I have no links though.

But turnout was 16.3% at noon (up from 16.1% in 2010), but down from 18.5% in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5pm is now somewhere between the 2004 and 2010 one:

43.0% (2010: 39.3%, 2004: 49.7%)

Final turnout should therefore come in at around 50-55%.

[Umengus]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

[Tender Branson]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

But does higher turnout help them really ?

If France is like Austria, higher turnout helps the FPÖ/FN - but not to the extent that they are winning anything. The FN might certainly get a good result and double/triple their %s in some regions, but eventually end up not winning any region in the 2nd round.

[Umengus]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

But does higher turnout help them really ?

If France is like Austria, higher turnout helps the FPÖ/FN - but not to the extent that they are winning anything. The FN might certainly get a good result and double/triple their %s in some regions, but eventually end up not winning any region in the 2nd round.

Impossible to know.

turnout 5 pm

- Corse : 52,59%
-Nord Pas-de-Calais - Picardie : 49,10%
-Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur : 46%
-Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes : 45,21%
-Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées : 44,70%
-Normandie : 44,16%
-Centre-Val de Loire : 43,95%
-Auvergne Rhône-Alpes : 43,24%
-Bourgogne - Franche-Comté : 42,89%
-Bretagne : 42,72%
-Pays de la Loire : 42,68%
-Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine : 41,39%
-Ile-de-France : 35,65%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Fun interactive map from Corriere della Sera, if you can read Italian

http://www.corriere.it/infografiche/infografiche.shtml?pagina=/infografiche/2015/12/mappa-regionali-francia&larg=100%25&alt=700

[Zinneke]

I think low turnout in France is usually because the causal centre-left people have given up on politics for the time being.

So it will help FN for sure.

[Umengus]

paca first estimation (twitter rumor...)

marion 41 %
estrosi: 27 %
ps: 16 %

[Umengus]

seem that ps is going to lose badly...

[Umengus]

marine would make a very good result at Henin Beaumont (FN city). Twitter rumor.

[DavidB.]

These names of the new regions are monstrous.

[Umengus]

yonne final result

fn 33 %
lr: 19
ps 16
debout la france: 9

[Umengus]

NPDCP

rumor

marine: 41 %
bertrand: 24 %
PS: 14 %

[Umengus]

national

rumor

Fn: 28-30
LR: 26-28
PS: 22-24
EELV: 6-7%
FG: 5 %

[Umengus]

NPDCP

Rumor

FN: 42
LR: 25
PS: 19

National:

FN: 27,5
LR: 27,3
PS: 23,6

(www.lalibre.be)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

These names of the new regions are monstrous.

There isn't any final name so far, except, well, Bretagne, Normandie, those that don't change.

I think low turnout in France is usually because the causal centre-left people have given up on politics for the time being.

So it will help FN for sure.

Hmm, well, sorry, but the the center-left people would be the some of the most 'civical' people here, it's the sane ones that have given up on that form of politics, or the careless ones, which would rather be 'apolitical' or what you can call 'indie' at best...

[Umengus]

exit poll (rumor)

fn: 29,5
lr: 27
ps: 23
eelv: 6,5
fg: 4,1

[Umengus]

last rumor:

FN: 31
LR: 27
PS: 23

[jaichind]

I assume official exit polls will be out in a few min right ?

[Umengus]

ile de france exit poll rumor

LR 28
FN 27
PS 24

!!

[Umengus]

Le figaro

fn 27,5-30
lr: 27,5
ps: 22-23

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Wow, Estrosi got destroyed by Panzerbaby.

Well, was more or less expected for the 1st round.

Everything seems like expected in the polls then...

Except maybe the fact that Marine manages to make it still bigger than expect in the North.

So brilliant...

Can't wait to see IdF.

[Zinneke]

Wow, Estrosi got destroyed by Panzerbaby.

Well, was more or less expected for the 1st round.

Everything seems like expected in the polls then...

Except maybe the fact that Marine manages to make it still bigger than expect in the North.

So brilliant...

Can't wait to see IdF.

They were neck and neck a week ago, and I don't think PS voters will ever mobilise for someone like Estrosi.

PS in Pas-de-Calais has already implicitly endorsed a fusion.

[Umengus]

Aquitaine, limousin, poitou (sofres poll)

PS: 31,5
lr: 28,9
FN: 23 M

[Umengus]

NPDCP

MArine: 43
LR: 23
PS: 18
ELV: 4,5 %
PCF: 4 %
debout la france: 3 %
extreme left: 1,5 %