French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The trouble is with pan-national trends is you have to draw with incredibly broad strokes, otherwise every sentence you say will be burried under asterisks. Yes, you can daw up a General narrative comprising, among other things, the SNP, the South China Sea, Flanders, Make America Great Again, Artur Mas, Crimea, Tsipras, Panzergirl, Shinzo Abe, the Pan-Green coalition, Gerry Adams, Kurdistan, the Islamic Calpihate and how they were each prompted by certain contexts of contemporary times; but it probably won't be very useful. Even if you limit it to the various nationalists that have sprouted in the Eurozone the best you can say is "Brussels screwed up as per usual in regards to the euro and the refugee crisis, and caused an upsurge in nationalist sentiment rooting from each nation's unique tradition and character'. And even then I would be wary of drawing pan-national trends even as broad as that. It's not like upswings in nationalism and anti-immigration sentiment has been completely foreign until the last half-decade.

[tpfkaw]

There seems to be a great deal of talking in circles in the last few pages of this thread, about a subject which is pretty simple.

The Front National is

1. Part of the French right-wing populist tradition.
2. Broadly similar to right-wing populists in other Western countries.
3. Gaining in popularity for similar reasons that right-wing populism is gaining in popularity throughout the West.

I think those three statements are all fairly obvious and that we all agree on them, nor are they particularly interesting or original insights for that reason. But if you do disagree with any of them you should be willing to offer your explanation, since it would be at odds with the conventional wisdom, both in France and abroad.

[jaichind]

In Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine there seems to be a movement by PS to try to invalidate Masseret's list by getting more than half of the candidates on Masseret's list to invalidate his candidacy.  It is not clear this will be done in time and Masseret is fighting back as the PS camp implodes.  It seems more and more likely that FN's Philippot will win in the second round.

[jaichind]

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/regionales/infographie-regionales-qui-va-gagner-au-deuxieme-tour-dans-votre-region_1212345.html

is a link with round 2 projections.  It seems to suggest that Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie is a lock for FN.  It also seems to suggest that FN has the upper hand in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.  It seems to indicate that Marine Le Pen's on list will narrowly lose Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie.  So it seems if FN has an above average election day, Centre-Val de Loire could also fall to FN.  In fact this model seems to give FN a better chance in Centre-Val de Loire than in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie. 

[BigSkyBob]

The trouble is with pan-national trends is you have to draw with incredibly broad strokes, otherwise every sentence you say will be burried under asterisks. Yes, you can daw up a General narrative comprising, among other things, the SNP, the South China Sea, Flanders, Make America Great Again, Artur Mas, Crimea, Tsipras, Panzergirl, Shinzo Abe, the Pan-Green coalition, Gerry Adams, Kurdistan, the Islamic Calpihate and how they were each prompted by certain contexts of contemporary times; but it probably won't be very useful. Even if you limit it to the various nationalists that have sprouted in the Eurozone the best you can say is "Brussels screwed up as per usual in regards to the euro and the refugee crisis, and caused an upsurge in nationalist sentiment rooting from each nation's unique tradition and character'. And even then I would be wary of drawing pan-national trends even as broad as that. It's not like upswings in nationalism and anti-immigration sentiment has been completely foreign until the last half-decade.

The last sentence merely indicates that the trend towards nationalism is older than a half-decade.

Again, either the simultaneous rise of such movements is coincidental, or it is not. If it is not coincidental, arguments that attempt to create some meta-explanation "aren't very useful" are irrelevant because the situation demands a meta-explanation however difficult formulating such an explanation is and no matter how little power such a theory has. [The trees mays be of different species, but, that doesn't mean they don't constitute a forest. A forest grows because the climatic conditions favor a forest over grasslands, or such, etc. Sure, the last explanation is rather simplistic, while an explanation of why any particular forest has hardwoods versus evergreens, or visa versa, is more complex. But, the existence of the forest necessitates an explanation as to why there is a forest.]

Suppose, some force had the ability to impose their will in the formation of a EU-type union of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan. How would such a union turn out? Meta-theories would make predictions. Since French culture is simply different than the cultures of India, Pakistan, etc., explanations for the rise of the FN would have no predictive power. I, for one, would see such a union suffering from massive internal frictions leading to nationalistic movement within the member states.


 

[Hash]

A few polls for the runoff:

NPDCP (TNS-Sofres)
Bertrand 53%
Panzergirl 47%

Unrealistically good transfers from the left to right (77, only 14% abstaining).

PACA (TNS-Sofres)
Estrosi 54%
Panzermiss 46%

Again, unrealistically good transfers for the right (same numbers as above in fact).

PACA (Odoxa)
Estrosi 52%
Panzermiss 48%

More balanced and realistic transfers in this one, but still better than expected for the right - 34/7/59 for the non-PS left, 57/4/39 for the PS. Also reports that a substantial number of first round non-voters could vote and they break well for the right.

NPDCP (Odoxa)
Bertrand 52%
Panzergirl 48%

Some unrealistically good transfers to Bertrand from the non-PS left (47/11/42 for FG, 51/0/49 for EELV), but realistic (and still good) transfers from the PS itself (50/7/43). Again, a substantial number of first round non-voters could vote and they break well for the right.

PACA (Harris)
Estrosi 51%
Panzermiss 49%

Balanced and realistic transfer expectations again - 54/1/45 from the PS, 46/3/51 from EELV.

PACA (Ifop)
Estrosi 52%
Panzermiss 48%

Balanced and realistic transfer expectations, though a bit stronger than expected from the PS (59/7/34).

ARA (Ifop)
Wauquiez 38%
Queyranne 37%
Boudot 25%

Surprisingly close given Wauquiez's first round success here, but the transfer expectations from the hard left to the PS seem very unrealistically high (81/10/0/9 from EELV-PG and 94/4/0/2 from FG).

IDF (Odoxa)
Pécresse 42%
Bartolone 40%
Saint-Just 18%

Good but insufficient support from the FG/EELV for Bartolone - 66/5/4/25; furthermore, NDA's support is breaking well for Pécresse (8/44/10/38), and the pollster reports that 13% of first round FN voters support the right in this scenario.

IDF (ELABE)
Bartolone 41.5%
Pécresse 41%
Saint-Just 17.5%

On the other hand, in this poll, FG and EELV votes are splitting very well (probably too well) for Bartolone - 77/9/2/12 from FG, 72/12/5/11 from EELV; NDA's voters are more divided in this poll (13/36/24/27).

ALCA (ELABE)
Richert 43%
Philippot 41%
Masseret 16%

In this poll, Masseret's own voters are basically evenly split between supporting him again on Sunday or voting for the right (49/46/2/3), EELV (which won over 6%) is predominantly going for Richert (47%) over the PS (33%), but the PS gets some support from the weak FG list (3%) which reportedly splits 68/9/0/23. DLF also splitting favourably for the right (3/54/22/21).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Hash]

An old worthwhile analysis from Ifop to read these days, dealing with FN gains from round to round in the spring's departmental elections. To summarize, the FN made the following gains (or loses) in the 2015 departmental elections, on average, in cantons where the party was qualified and present in the second round:

Left/FN 2-ways (duels): +9.5%
Right/FN 2-ways (duels): +5.4%
Triangulaires (3-ways): -2.1% -- incl.
37 triangulaires with FN first: -0.2%
96 triangulaires with FN second: -1.5% (and, where right first: -2%; where left first: -0.8%)
121 triangulaires with FN third: -3.3%

This table included in their analysis was also interesting:



Basically, this data should help temper overly bullish predictions of a FN sweep in the runoff. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that after all the mass pandemonium, we'll end up with 0 FN regional presidencies.

[Zanas]

Yeah, basically FN's best shots are the two regions where they're around 31 and neither the left nor the right is the obvious anti-FN choice, so any last minute anti-FN mobilization has two split choices rather than a clear one : Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val-de-Loire.

I have the following prediction for you. Details. 57-59% turnout.

                    UG      UD         FN
ACAL            15,9    43,8    40,2
ALPC            42,7    35,1    22,2
ARA             36,3    38,0    25,8
BFC             31,8    33,3    34,9
Bretagne     50,5    31,3    18,2
Centre         34,1    32,3    33,5
IdF              40,3    41,3    18,4
LRMP          42,4    22,7    34,9
Nord                       52,5    47,5
Normandie    35,8    37,0    27,2
PdL             38,1    40,9    21,0
Paca                       52,0    48,0

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is up significantly at 12:00 compared with Round 1.

20% vs. 16% (and besides Corsica, it's highest so far in the 2 Le Pen contested seats).

[Donnie]

Turnout at 5:00 P.M    50.54%.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is up 7% so far compared with Round 1.

Final turnout could reach 57-60%.

By regions:

Corse : 60,33 %
Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie : 54,36 %
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur : 54,27 %
Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées : 54,06 %
Normandie : 53,23 %
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 52,79 %
Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine : 52,69 %
Centre-Val de Loire : 52,43 %
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes : 51,21 %
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 50,43 %
Bretagne : 48,81 %
Pays de la Loire : 48,67 %
Ile-de-France : 41,83%

France: 50,54%

[Tender Branson]

Maps (incl. change compared with Round 1):

[Umengus]

Rumor

Fn would win ALCA but not paca or NPDC.

PS would win Bretagne, corse and ALPC. The rest (9) for UMP

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for the LOLZ:

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

50.9% Bertrand (UdlD) [X] elected
49.1% LePen, Marine (FN)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

50.6% LePen, Marion (FN) [X] elected + pickup
49.4% Estrosi (UdlD)

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

44.1% Philippot (FN) [X] elected + pickup
43.6% Richert (UdlD)
12.3% Masseret (DG)

...

All other regions remain like they were in Round 1.

[Zanas]

Rumor

Fn would win ALCA but not paca or NPDC.

PS would win Bretagne, corse and ALPC. The rest (9) for UMP

Not sure. ALCA has the highest increase in turnout : +11.3 pts ! I don't think it can play in favor of FN, not enough at least.

[Zanas]

My predictions for the LOLZ:

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

50.9% Bertrand (UdlD) [X] elected
49.1% LePen, Marine (FN)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

50.6% LePen, Marion (FN) [X] elected + pickup
49.4% Estrosi (UdlD)

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

44.1% Philippot (FN) [X] elected + pickup
43.6% Richert (UdlD)
12.3% Masseret (DG)

...

All other regions remain like they were in Round 1.

Bertrand would also do a pickup.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for the LOLZ:

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

50.9% Bertrand (UdlD) [X] elected
49.1% LePen, Marine (FN)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

50.6% LePen, Marion (FN) [X] elected + pickup
49.4% Estrosi (UdlD)

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

44.1% Philippot (FN) [X] elected + pickup
43.6% Richert (UdlD)
12.3% Masseret (DG)

...

All other regions remain like they were in Round 1.

Bertrand would also do a pickup.

Ah yeah, thx ...

I somehow thought he already was some regional leader before the regional mergers ...

[Umengus]

Rumor

Fn would win ALCA but not paca or NPDC.

PS would win Bretagne, corse and ALPC. The rest (9) for UMP

update: no fn régions.

[Umengus]

Marine would lose 42-58 by bertrand, bigger than predicted.

[Tender Branson]

Marine would lose 42-58 by bertrand, bigger than predicted.

Looks like most left-wingers voted for the Right-winger then, instead of staying home.

If true, it would also bury her Presidential plans - because this result would be a preview for a 2nd Presidential round and if she cannot get near a majority in her stronghold, she would have no chance in a Presidential runoff either ...

[Umengus]

and marion would lose 44-56

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I hope that those predictions/leaks/exit polls will be true.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

[Andrea]

According to Belgium TV

PS wins

Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes
Bretagne
Centre-Val-de-Loire

Républicains
 Pays-de-la-Loire
Rhône-Alpes-Auvergne

Gilles Simeoni wins in Corse